ICG calls for talks to end election deadlock

Both the Awami League and its arch-rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party should engage in a constructive dialogue to chart a way out of the ongoing stalemate over polls, advocated the International Crisis Group.
Foreign partners, particularly the US and India, should motivate the duo to a negotiating table, the ICG said in a 47-page report styled 'Beyond the election: Breaking Bangladesh political deadlock' on Thursday.
"Negotiations to rebuild relations between the main political forces and put Bangladesh back on to the path of democracy, peace and stability will require concessions from both sides."
Bangladesh is at a critical juncture. …Imperfect democracy will soon hold a third election without a credible alternative to the incumbent government, added the global think tank.
"Hasina's determination to hold the election on her terms will increase the risk of violence both before and after the polls," it noted.
"Given the level of domestic opposition it is facing, alongside economic and geopolitical headwinds, the AL has reasons to seek a compromise."
"While Hasina's party may hold on to power in the short term, the opposition is likely to persist with its actions, and political and economic pressures could mount on the AL…"
The AL-led government and the opposition BNP have been locked in a deadly stalemate in the lead-up to a general election scheduled for January 07.
The BNP and its allies would boycott the vote as the government resisted their calls for PM Sheikh Hasina to resign and hand power to a caretaker administration to oversee the polls, the report said analysing the current political climate.
"Instead, Hasina has used her control of levers of state power - the police, judiciary and civil service - to undermine opposition attempts to force her from office."
"Following a major rally in Dhaka on 28 October 2023 that descended into violence, the government detained most senior opposition officials and seems intent on crushing the BNP."
"After polls in 2014 and 2018 that lacked credibility, another flawed vote would ratchet up Bangladesh's political tensions. While it's now too late to postpone the polls, the government and opposition should open talks after the vote aimed at resolving the crisis and preventing further turmoil."
"Since coming to office in 2009, Hasina's AL government has defied its adversaries to become Bangladesh's longest-serving administration, outlasting even the military regimes of the 1980s," according to the report.
"She built her success on personal popularity, in part due to her legacy as the daughter of the country's founding father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and strong party machinery."
The ICG said, "Her government has also delivered more than a decade of robust economic growth, improved health and education outcomes, and undertaken vital infrastructure projects."
But the AL's determination to hold on to power at any cost has corroded democracy in Bangladesh, it noted.
Since the last election, discontent has been growing both at home and abroad. Many Bangladeshis complain that they have not been able to vote in a credible election for 15 years, added the report.
"Even more damaging for the government, the gloss has come off the economy. Since mid-2022, it has been grappling with a foreign-exchange shortage and high inflation, leaving many low-income workers struggling to make ends meet."
Although caused partly by external factors, these economic troubles have been exacerbated by corruption and mismanagement, particularly the adoption of a fixed exchange rate, cited the report.
"…The Biden administration has enacted sanctions against members of the Bangladeshi security forces implicated in human rights abuses and threatened to block visas for officials deemed to be undermining credible elections as well as their family members."
These US moves have galvanised the opposition, which since mid-2022 has staged numerous large demonstrations in Dhaka and other cities - the first in around a decade, noted the UCG report.
"Despite government efforts to thwart them, major rallies in December 2022, July 2023 and October 2023 attracted hundreds of thousands of supporters."
"The latest of these gatherings, on 28 October 2023, ended prematurely when police dispersed the crowds with tear gas and stun grenades following sporadic clashes."
"Amid street battles, BNP supporters allegedly killed a police officer; the government responded by arresting most of the party's senior members and remanding them in prison," the report said.
These events have only intensified antagonism between the two sides.
"Hasina ruled out dialogue with the opposition, while the BNP and its allies announced hartal (strike) and blockade to disrupt the economy and force the government to accede to their electoral demands."
The AL has also sought to split the BNP by luring senior members to defect, although without much success.
Instead, the BNP is trying to build a broader anti-government coalition, including parties that it has not traditionally cooperated with, the report said.

[email protected]