IMF projects 7.1pc growth for B’desh

Forecasts higher inflation rate

FE Report | Wednesday, 10 October 2018

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted that Bangladesh's GDP (gross domestic product) growth is likely to hit 7.1 per cent in fiscal 2019-end.
Bangladesh's economic growth is expected to reach 7.0 per cent in 2023, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook 2018 (WEO), which was released on Tuesday in Indonesia's Bali.
The IMF, in its global report, also projected that Bangladesh's annual consumer prices would be 5.8 per cent by the end of 2018 and 6.1 per cent by 2019.
The IMF's GDP projections for Bangladesh were slightly higher than the World Bank and lower than the projection made by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The WB and the ADB in their latest projections forecasted a 7.0 per cent and 7.5 per cent GDP growth for Bangladesh respectively for fiscal year 2018-19.
However, the IMF, in its report, projected global growth to be 3.7 per cent for 2018-19, or 0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecasted in April.
"Global financial conditions are expected to tighten as monetary policy normalises; the trade measures implemented since April will weigh on activity in 2019 and beyond," the IMF said.
It also noted the downgrade reflects a confluence of factors, including the introduction of import tariffs between the United States and China, weaker performances by euro zone countries, Japan and Britain.
Across emerging markets and developing economies, activity continued to improve gradually in energy exporters but softened in some importers, according to the report.
Inflation has generally increased in emerging market and developing economies, in part reflecting the pass-through of currency depreciations.
According to the IMF, growth for China and a number of Asian economies have also been revised down following the recently announced trade measures.
Some 45 emerging market and developing economies, accounting for 10 per cent of world GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms, are projected to grow by less than advanced economies in per capita terms over 2018-23, and hence to fall further behind in living standards, according to the IMF.
The balance of risks to the global growth forecast is tilted to the downside, both in the short term and beyond, it said.

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