Impact of lower rice production

The USDA (US Department of Agriculture) has forecast global rice production for August, 2014 at 477 million MT, down by 2.1 million MT from the last month's forecast, but still 1.5 million MT up from a year earlier. India accounts for almost half of this month's downward revision in global rice production. Its rice production forecast was lowered by 1 million MT to 103 million MT based on a delayed and weaker-than-normal monsoon that has reduced expected plantings, especially in Pascimbango and Bihar.
In 2014-15 India's rice production is projected to be 3 per cent below the  previous year's, a result of lower yield and smaller crop area.
In Bangladesh, the 2014-15 production forecast in August was lowered by 0.2 million MT to 34.6 million MT based on recommendations from the US Agricultural Office in Dhaka indicating smaller Boro crop area because of high irrigation costs, which is expected to encourage farmers to switch over to more profitable crops such as maize, wheat, potatoes, pulses, and oilseeds. Despite this month's downward revision, Bangladesh's 2014-15 total rice production is still projected to be the highest on record, as a result of both record plantings and higher yield.
For the whole calendar year 2015, global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.2 million MT, down by 0.4 million MT from the previous forecast, but 1 per cent higher than in 2014. India's 2015 export forecast was lowered 0.3 million MT to 8.7 million MT, 13 per cent down from a year earlier and the smallest in volume since 2011, which came as a result of a smaller crop and higher domestic use. Thailand is projected to replace India as the largest rice exporter with10 million MT export, an increase of 11 per cent from 2014. The projected increase in 2015 is based on more competitive prices and abundant supplies. Vietnam is projected to ship 6.7 million MT of rice in 2015, a 3 per cent increase from a year earlier.
Bangladesh's 2015 import forecast was raised by 0.3 million MT to 0.5 million MT based on recommendations coming from the US Agricultural Office in Dhaka. The conclusion is that crop diversification is accelerating in Bangladesh, which is a good sign. However, the gloomy picture is that the possibility of importing rice from India is decreasing because of its lower rice production.
The writer is a Professor at the Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymesingh. shaikh_sabur@yahoo.com