Implications of unrest in Arab countries

The unrest now engulfing one Arab country after another should be a matter of great concern for international security analysts. Oil prices, having a vital impact on the world economy, is shooting up as a consequence of such troubles and could impact adversely on the global economy that has been struggling to recover from the recession. Geo-strategically, the unfolding situation in these countries poses a great threat to world security. This region includes the vital shipping routes including the Suez Canal and the Gulf. Any instability in the area, therefore, could put the world economy on a tailspin from various supply shocks. Suddenly, the yearning for escape from authoritarian regime surfaced in Tunisia and the same pattern started unfolding also in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain and a few other countries. The turmoil in Egypt, the most populous Arab country, and lately the situation in Libya are noted to be too severe . But the point is these Arab countries are accustomed to living under rule of strong men and their regimes. They have had no tradition of democratic governments that they could miss. So, why is this sudden flare up for a system of government in which they had no experience ? And also why is one such Arab country after another falling like dominos from what appears to be the same contagion ? All these give rise to suspicion whether there is a grand master behind the scenes fanning the flames of discontent and deliberately to create a well designed outcome. Notably, Israeli leaders themselves admitted that they were very closely watching the developments in Egypt and the nearby Arab countries. The Hosni Mobarak government was moderate and carefully and uniquely maintaining a peace treaty with Israel. The fall of Mubarak may usher in a government differently disposed towards Israel. There is no knowing who would come to power or dominate the show in Egypt after the fall of Mubarak. The next government may come to be dominated by hardliners or radical elements, totally uncompromising against Israel. The same sort of governments, more confrontational in relation to Israel, may come to power after the culmination of the mass movements in the other Arab countries. That would give the Israel the perfect opportunity to contend that the entire Arab word has become completely arrayed against it and that there remains no justification, therefore, in pursuing peace talks with the Palestinians. Israel is now under considerable international pressure to fruitfully engage in such talks. Mainuddin Ahmed University of Dhaka, Dhaka.