Import figures
Tuesday, 26 June 2007
UPDATED import statistics, compiled by the Bangladesh Bank, shows that the over-all imports of the country in the first eleven months of the outgoing fiscal rose by 14.88 per cent. A recent report in this paper, which quoted it, said imports grew by $1.974 billion in terms of value during July 2006 to mid-June 2007, from $13.271 billion of the previous fiscal's corresponding period. If this increased spending was due to forward fluctuations of fuel oil, edible oil, rice, different varieties of pulse and wheat prices in the world market, it is then hard to assess whether or not the import of those commodities in terms of quantity has increased. One may not be able to also guess what could be their real supply situation if price increases of these commodities on the world market were abnormally high, which in fact has been the case. The assessment might become more difficult if some other commodities including some machines and spares and also raw materials on the import list have or had recorded some significant fluctuations in prices.
In fact, import figure in terms of value during a period of price instability of some essential commodities in the world market and the domestic market may not be helpful for a reliable assessment of their internal supply situation. A commodity may be brought in during such a time in a lesser quantity on payment of a higher amount in foreign exchange. If there is a concurrent adverse volatility of the local currency as well, the real situation may be even worse. When the possibility is such, it is doubtful whether the import statistics in terms of value, as indicated by the Bangladesh Bank, would exert any positive impact on the market. Unless the statistics tells importers, hoarders, wholesalers and retailers that the supply position is comfortable, many of them may like to conjure up an artificial scarcity or unilaterally raise prices for furthering their profit.
The government is known for having lately started market surveillance with a view to driving the soaring prices of some essentials down to provide relief to the consumers. Its officials may not succeed in attaining the objective of the exercise fully without having at hand any reliable information about the real supply situation. Assumptions about the supply positions on the basis of import figures in terms of value may well mislead them for reasons explained above, and that can even prove dangerous if data about domestic production are also doubtful. Social stability in this country being a critical factor of market stability, as in other countries, this issue ought to be viewed with particular seriousness by the authorities.
The Bangladesh Bank or the office of the Chief Controller of Import and Export (CCI&E), whose job under the free economy has nothing to do directly with import and export, may collect information about the real volume of import and export in terms of quantity on a regular basis by consulting documents of Customs clearance. The bank may require a few more officials in its related wing for doing this additional job. Yet it is worth doing for the realization of all the objectives of publication of import statistics. The involvement of the office of the CCI&E in the compilation such data may be considered only if the central bank finds itself in no good position for doing it. Simultaneous involvement of both in the job, which may be helpful for crosschecking, may actually encourage relaxed performance of duty by either side. Can the Customs alone do it while clearing the import documents for the sake of exactness of statistics?
In fact, import figure in terms of value during a period of price instability of some essential commodities in the world market and the domestic market may not be helpful for a reliable assessment of their internal supply situation. A commodity may be brought in during such a time in a lesser quantity on payment of a higher amount in foreign exchange. If there is a concurrent adverse volatility of the local currency as well, the real situation may be even worse. When the possibility is such, it is doubtful whether the import statistics in terms of value, as indicated by the Bangladesh Bank, would exert any positive impact on the market. Unless the statistics tells importers, hoarders, wholesalers and retailers that the supply position is comfortable, many of them may like to conjure up an artificial scarcity or unilaterally raise prices for furthering their profit.
The government is known for having lately started market surveillance with a view to driving the soaring prices of some essentials down to provide relief to the consumers. Its officials may not succeed in attaining the objective of the exercise fully without having at hand any reliable information about the real supply situation. Assumptions about the supply positions on the basis of import figures in terms of value may well mislead them for reasons explained above, and that can even prove dangerous if data about domestic production are also doubtful. Social stability in this country being a critical factor of market stability, as in other countries, this issue ought to be viewed with particular seriousness by the authorities.
The Bangladesh Bank or the office of the Chief Controller of Import and Export (CCI&E), whose job under the free economy has nothing to do directly with import and export, may collect information about the real volume of import and export in terms of quantity on a regular basis by consulting documents of Customs clearance. The bank may require a few more officials in its related wing for doing this additional job. Yet it is worth doing for the realization of all the objectives of publication of import statistics. The involvement of the office of the CCI&E in the compilation such data may be considered only if the central bank finds itself in no good position for doing it. Simultaneous involvement of both in the job, which may be helpful for crosschecking, may actually encourage relaxed performance of duty by either side. Can the Customs alone do it while clearing the import documents for the sake of exactness of statistics?