Import stagnation threatens industrial growth

The overall import flow in Bangladesh in 2025 has remained largely stagnant compared to 2024. In figures, it is approximately 12 per cent lower than the previous year. The burden of LC settlement has not been significantly heavy either. This sluggishness has contributed to weak revenue growth in the industrial sector. Many manufacturing industries - particularly cement and steel - are currently operating far below their usual capacity due to a contraction in domestic demand. Despite recent BMRE initiatives, several plants are utilising only 40 to 50 per cent of their total capacity.
Government mega projects are not progressing at full pace and until the formation of an elected government, the situation is likely to remain unchanged. Consequently, industries are also refraining from importing capital machinery for BMRE purposes.
The slow growth in revenue has resulted in poor operating profits. Many business entities are now struggling to service their debts, creating the risk of severe unemployment and irregularities in salary and wage payments for employees and workers.
Industries directly linked to government mega projects are heavily import-dependent. The continued decline in imports reflects a potential threat for the near future if corrective measures are not taken soon.
Money laundering through under-invoicing-once a widespread malpractice in the import trade-has noticeably declined in recent months, marking a positive development in trade transparency and regulatory enforcement. This improvement has largely been driven by tighter monitoring by the central bank and customs authorities, alongside the overall moderation in import activities.
During the period of foreign exchange crunch, many manufacturers were compelled to use locally sourced raw materials at higher costs instead of importing. Those who continued imports had to bear higher LC settlement costs due to exchange rate fluctuations. As a result, profit margins have remained insufficient to meet debt obligations and other liabilities.
If this stagnation persists, the threat of rising unemployment will intensify. Since most companies are highly leveraged, the risk of non-performing loans (NPLs) will also increase. Furthermore, the recent removal of the interest-rate band has added additional pressure on borrowers under the current circumstances. Consequently, GDP growth may fall short of expectations. To mitigate these risks, the government must take proactive and targeted measures to restore economic momentum.

Kawsik Azad Pronoy
Assistant Vice President & Unit Head
Dutch Bangla Bank
Corporate Business Division