Incalculable cost of a controversial election

No election in Bangladesh was, perhaps, as challenged as that of January 05, 2014. The principal opposition party BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), along with its partners in the 18-Party Alliance and the opposition camp, not only stayed away from the elections but vowed to resist these. They staunchly demanded that a non-party 'caretaker or interim government' oversee these elections as did the caretaker governments of 1996, 2001 and 2008. The ruling Awami League (AL) at the head of the Mohajot or grand alliance was unflinching in its resolve to have the elections under an interim party or "all-party" government. It argued that the Constitution as modified by the 15th amendment which it itself had effected, prescribed that the ruling party should form the interim government to uphold the democratic practice of the Westminster-type of parliamentary government. It is interesting to remember that it was the Awami League which carried out a successful mass movement in 1996 and compelled a reluctant BNP to amend the Constitution and introduce 'non-party' polls-time government. It is also curious to see that the BNP, which had opposed the system of caretaker government earlier, is fighting tooth and nail to re-introduce it. Such are the shocking vagaries of politics in an under-developed polity.
Nevertheless, whatever that might be, the latest to the National Assembly has been heatedly disputed both at home and abroad. The Awami League desperately resisted the all-out attempts at preventing the polls from taking place. These attempts often were tarnished by mindless violence. The opposition mounted five successive nation-wide blockades from November 25, 2013 to January 10, 2014. These were also interspaced by hartals marked by sporadic but cruel violence in several areas of the country. The capital Dhaka, guarded by large numbers of security personnel, escaped the worst effect of violence. There were, however, hart-rending incidents of passenger buses, tempos and auto-rickshaws hit by petrol bombs. These burnt many people to death and badly injured and crippled hundreds of persons in Dhaka and elsewhere. The result was brutal death of nearly hundred and fifty citizens and maiming of thousands.
Violent and prolonged protests by the opposition could not resist the determined ruling party from holding the elections. Even before the scheduled date, January 05, 2014, as many as hundred and fifty three candidates, most of them Awami Leaguers and their allies, were elected uncontested. Thanks to the stout and well-organised support of the law-enforcement agencies and the active efforts of the ruling party cadres, the elections to the other hundred and forty seven parliamentary seats, save eight, were also completed on January 05, 2014.
On account of the facts that the principal opposition party did not participate and more than half of the voters were deprived of voting rights because of uncontested elections, foreign election observers did not come to Bangladesh this time. The United States, the European Union (EU), the Commonwealth and the UN all refrained from taking part in the observations. Only Indian and Bhutanese observers gave scanty company to some domestic observer groups. Even by the count of the Bangladeshi observers, voter's turnout was very low. Some Bangladeshi observers reported that before mid-day the turnout in many places was less than ten per cent although it increased somewhat during the later part of the day. Even the government claimed no more than forty per cent of the votes were cast. The ruling party blamed opposition party blockade and violence for the competitively low turnout. Thus, the ruling party achieved its objective of completing the elections in time and according to the Constitution. However, there was a general sense of suppressed hollowness in government quarters. Most of the nation also felt disappointed and despondent that the voters had been virtually shortchanged. Craft, cunning and skillful control and manipulation of the coercive machinery of the state helped the ruling party to win what appears to be a short-term victory. Leaders of the winning side seem to be unsure of the strength of their victory. Many, including the Prime Minister, are talking of dialogue for an 'inclusive' election for the 11th Parliament. The Finance Minister, Mr. Muhith said on January 08 that such elections could be held within one year, if the opposition stopped its movement and violence associated with it.
Thus the ruling party seems to have lost in its success. On the other hand, the opposition despite having immense popular support for its demand for caretaker government could not fruitfully mobilise the people on its side. Its long and protracted movement to resist and prevent the elections from being held came to naught. The General Secretary of Awami League Syed Ashraful Islam sarcastically called it 'a damp squib'. There is no doubt, however, that while the Awami League has lost even as it won, so also the BNP lost the game even on what could be for it a strong wicket.
One is compelled to conclude that the national polls proved beyond doubt that while the people were not for a stage-managed election, they were also not in favour of a opposition movement of attrition for boycotting the elections. In this deadly game the losers were not only the feuding parties but also the entire country and people in general. The total damage to the economy and society is yet to be fathomed. According to one estimate the nation's loss in economic terms over the last few months of political turmoil is taka 100 billion (one hundred thousand crores)! It almost equals half of the national budget. On the other hand, because of lack of stability and continued politico-social tumult trade and business are suffering immense losses. The highest foreign exchange-earner, the RMG sector, is losing its markets abroad at a dangerous rate. Even in December, 2013 order for US $ 500 million out of an annual US $ 20 billion was diverted to India. Other takers are Myanmar, Vietnam and Ethiopia. As a result of unstable politics and economy, investment, both foreign and domestic, has reached an all-time low. Banks and financial institutions are reported to be burdened with idle funds amounting to some Tk. 840 billion (84 thousand crore)! Many citizens are critical that the disputed and unsatisfactory election cost the nation Taka six billion. The total count, if ever genuinely and completely available, would be staggering beyond beliefs. Add to these, the invaluable lives lost and the numerous citizens injured and crippled. And then you will find that these elections, which did not do anybody any good, cost the nation a price that will need many decades to pay.
The country suffered terrible politico-social and economic damage. For the moment the opposition is in exile from parliament. It is shivering out there in the cold. Strange as it may seem, the ruling party has probably suffered the greatest lost - its credibility. The nation, however, has lost the most. Its citizens have become apathetic to the vital process of politics. They have become almost totally alienated from the wayward political classes. That perhaps is a loss that is incalculable.        
Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB) and Editor quarterly "Asian Affairs" was a former teacher of political science in Dhaka University and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) and former non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh
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