Incidents may shift threat perception in Britain
Saturday, 7 July 2007
Stephen Fidler
Two years ago, the perception about what constituted the greatest terrorist threat to Britain shifted dramatically. The July 7 2005 suicide bomb attacks on the London transport system suggested that the main threat came not from abroad but from home-grown groups, people born and brought up in the UK.
Although the 7/7 bombers are now known to have received training or indoctrination from al-Qaeda groups on the Pakistan-Afghan border, they were radicalised in England. The government reacted by boosting the budget of the domestic security service, MI5, the police and other security agencies, in part to get closer to the communities from which the extremists sprung.
Now that threat perception may shift once again. It is clear that at least some of the alleged plotters behind three failed bomb attacks in London and Glasgow in the past week were recent arrivals from various countries in the Middle East - and that some were medical doctors.
A person briefed on the status of the investigation said the manhunt, which had already led to seven arrests, was continuing and could eventually involve at least that number again. Investigators suspected that the leaders of the cell were from overseas but that local "home-grown" extremists may have helped.
This would suggest the alleged would-be attackers were able to enter the country using procedures meant to encourage foreign doctors to alleviate shortages in the National Health Service.
It seems likely to trigger a review of immigration procedures in the UK - and possibly in other countries such as the US. Security checks on others who have already entered the country in this way also seem inevitable.
Stephen Swain, a former policeman who is now a terrorism specialist for Control Risks, a business risk consultancy, said: "Undoubtedly the UK is the number one target for al-Qaeda. The Americans have tightened up their borders considerably but we have struggled to do that in the UK."
The development could also be highly corrosive of trust within the NHS, which relies heavily on foreign trained practitioners.
The alleged involvement of doctors in the plot contradicts the idea that Islamist terrorists are drawn from the ranks of the poor and oppressed - although this may be the pattern in some countries such as Morocco. On the contrary, this group appears to have been largely middle-class - as were the architects of the September 11 atrocities in the US.
The possibility that the group represents an al-Qaeda sleeper cell suggests some connection to the core of al-Qaeda, believed to be based in Pakistan. However, the ineptitude with which the home-made bombs were constructed suggests that the bomb-makers had not received direct training from al-Qaeda explosives experts.
Security officials said yesterday they were hopeful some of the alleged plotters may have previously come into the purview of MI5, the intelligence agency, which says it is monitoring 30 plots and nearly 2,000 individuals. But they could not confirm that they had established any connection yet.
One said that it was not the case that MI5 had changed its focus excessively to home-grown terrorists, denying a suggestion that the agency had taken its eye off the ball. The plots being monitored included some involving foreigners, some involving Britons and others involving both.
Terrorism experts said there was still discussion about whether the plots had been timed to coincide with the transfer of power to Gordon Brown, the new prime minister, or to be linked with the anniversary of the July 7 bombings.
Islamist terrorists have in the past timed attacks apparently to coincide with political events, including the March 2004 Madrid attacks before the Spanish elections and the July 7 attacks, at the time of a summit of Group of Eight leaders in the UK.
Two years ago, the perception about what constituted the greatest terrorist threat to Britain shifted dramatically. The July 7 2005 suicide bomb attacks on the London transport system suggested that the main threat came not from abroad but from home-grown groups, people born and brought up in the UK.
Although the 7/7 bombers are now known to have received training or indoctrination from al-Qaeda groups on the Pakistan-Afghan border, they were radicalised in England. The government reacted by boosting the budget of the domestic security service, MI5, the police and other security agencies, in part to get closer to the communities from which the extremists sprung.
Now that threat perception may shift once again. It is clear that at least some of the alleged plotters behind three failed bomb attacks in London and Glasgow in the past week were recent arrivals from various countries in the Middle East - and that some were medical doctors.
A person briefed on the status of the investigation said the manhunt, which had already led to seven arrests, was continuing and could eventually involve at least that number again. Investigators suspected that the leaders of the cell were from overseas but that local "home-grown" extremists may have helped.
This would suggest the alleged would-be attackers were able to enter the country using procedures meant to encourage foreign doctors to alleviate shortages in the National Health Service.
It seems likely to trigger a review of immigration procedures in the UK - and possibly in other countries such as the US. Security checks on others who have already entered the country in this way also seem inevitable.
Stephen Swain, a former policeman who is now a terrorism specialist for Control Risks, a business risk consultancy, said: "Undoubtedly the UK is the number one target for al-Qaeda. The Americans have tightened up their borders considerably but we have struggled to do that in the UK."
The development could also be highly corrosive of trust within the NHS, which relies heavily on foreign trained practitioners.
The alleged involvement of doctors in the plot contradicts the idea that Islamist terrorists are drawn from the ranks of the poor and oppressed - although this may be the pattern in some countries such as Morocco. On the contrary, this group appears to have been largely middle-class - as were the architects of the September 11 atrocities in the US.
The possibility that the group represents an al-Qaeda sleeper cell suggests some connection to the core of al-Qaeda, believed to be based in Pakistan. However, the ineptitude with which the home-made bombs were constructed suggests that the bomb-makers had not received direct training from al-Qaeda explosives experts.
Security officials said yesterday they were hopeful some of the alleged plotters may have previously come into the purview of MI5, the intelligence agency, which says it is monitoring 30 plots and nearly 2,000 individuals. But they could not confirm that they had established any connection yet.
One said that it was not the case that MI5 had changed its focus excessively to home-grown terrorists, denying a suggestion that the agency had taken its eye off the ball. The plots being monitored included some involving foreigners, some involving Britons and others involving both.
Terrorism experts said there was still discussion about whether the plots had been timed to coincide with the transfer of power to Gordon Brown, the new prime minister, or to be linked with the anniversary of the July 7 bombings.
Islamist terrorists have in the past timed attacks apparently to coincide with political events, including the March 2004 Madrid attacks before the Spanish elections and the July 7 attacks, at the time of a summit of Group of Eight leaders in the UK.