India\\\'s retail inflation cools further

MUMBAI, Nov 12 (Reuters):  India's annual consumer price inflation eased for a third straight month in October to 5.52 per cent, its lowest level since the government started releasing the data in 2012, data showed on Wednesday.
The latest number was lower than a Reuters poll forecast of 5.80 per cent and September's 6.46 per cent print.
"CPI is more or less in line. Post-September we saw a cut in petrol, diesel prices. Along with the ongoing play on the base effect, both have worked on the year-on-year number.
"IIP (industrial production) is a bit above survey, but that doesn't say much.
"It's still a very weak reading at 2.5 per cent. We had a series of decent reading leading up to the June quarter, but the subsequent quarters have clearly indicated a weak reading, which may point to a slightly low GDP number at the end of the month."
"The CPI data is positive.
"Next number is also expected to be benign and could be below 5 per cent. But base effect will kick in after that, which will push up inflation in the January-March quarter, and average inflation could be at 7 per cent by financial year-end.
"As far as RBI is concerned though, inflation is likely to undershoot RBI's 8 per cent target for January 2015. There are still upside risks to the 6 per cent target by January 2016 and therefore we expect rates to remain unchanged this financial year."
"The unexpected fall in October consumer inflation will mean that the inflation number for the December quarter will likely be less than 7 per cent.
"This is heartening and gives RBI scope to consider rate cuts next year. On the IIP (industrial production) front, although the rebound is reassuring, we do expect some moderation in the coming days.