Indo-US strategic framework and Bangladesh

India, China and the United States are engaged in a power game that puts the smaller South Asian nations in a quandary. Relations of the Asian powers India and China with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will be impacted by rebalancing of US strategies in the Asia Pacific region. The recently concluded defence pact between the US and India casts a shadow on the smaller powers in the region. President Obama and Prime Minister Modi in a joint statement described a strategic vision for collaboration on defence technology transfer, civil-nuclear technology, renewable energy, mutual cooperation on maritime security, regional integration, regional transportation and connectivity. The Indo-US Joint Strategic Vision contains an understanding to "invest in making trilateral consultations with third countries in the region more robust, deepen regional integration, strengthen regional forums, explore additional multilateral opportunities for engagement, and pursue areas where we can build capacity in the region that bolster long-term peace and prosperity for all".
India aspiring to be a supreme power in the region needs to modernise its defence with the avowed purpose of deterring Chinese encroachments in Southern Asia. Collaboration with the US is essential for India to be a preeminent power in the region -- at par with China. India expects to benefit from the cooperation by strengthening its military and economic power, and the US, by active involvement in regional and bilateral security arrangements.
Joint collaboration on defence and security cooperation offers an exact fit for the national security interests of the US, as well as India. Bolstering India's defence capability will guarantee the balance of power between the rival Asian powers. Both India and the United States will gain extra leverage against China from the strategic partnership. United States navy will be able to exercise its power to wield 'broader' influence in the Indian Ocean and enable the Indian naval fleets to reign supreme in the region. Obviously, neither India nor the US intends to disrupt the economic relations with China since both countries hold significant stakes in the Chinese economy.
An unintended consequence of the partnership is that India backed by the renewed commitment from the superpower would be inclined to exert greater pressure upon the smaller nations of South Asia.
Bangladesh has always maintained an independent stance in its external relations. Bilateral relations with India have been cordial and mostly cooperative but there exists significant opposition within the country to the idea of an 'asymmetric engagement' with Delhi. Under the transformational leadership of Prime Minister Modi, regional cooperation is likely to take off in the foreseeable future by the attainment of a level playing field for the South Asian nations.  Not that the regional trend is solely driven by the leadership but there are sufficient evidence to suggest that these changes are market-driven and caused by the shift of the global economy to the Asia-Pacific. President Obama banked on India because the democratic nation of 1.25 billion people is the next China - and, according to an estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it will surpass the projected growth rate of China by 2017.
India is the second largest trading partner for Bangladesh with two-way trade surpassing $6.6 billion (June, 2014). Exports from Bangladesh amount to a tenth of the value of imports from India.  US is one of the largest buyers of apparels and knit products from Bangladesh, estimated at above $5 billion, and the total two-way trade exceeds $6.1 billion. Imports from the US are far less than exports accounting for only 13 per cent in value contributing to a deficit for the US of $4.6 billion.
Bangladesh may look at the Indo-US strategic partnership in Delhi with a degree of scepticism. US defence cooperation will enable the Indian navy to reign supreme in the Indian Ocean. Smaller countries like Bangladesh often needs to rely on support from an external power to thwart any design or disputes with a bigger and more powerful neighbour. Although the US has repeated on occasions that it will not intervene in any disputes as a third party, any diplomatic, military or security assistance from the United States will depend on the nature of the bilateral relations. Until recently, the government in Dhaka relied on a steady economic, political, military and security relationship with China. Bangladesh is wary about any adverse reaction from China. Access to the Bay will allow the PLA Navy to set up a naval installation or facility at the Sonadia port to be designed, financed and built by the Chinese. Observers have noted slow progress in the development of some of the mega-infrastructure projects signed during the recent visit of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh to Beijing following the 'dropping off the project from the list on the agenda'. China happens to be the largest trading partner with significant commercial interests and investments in Bangladesh.
A sympathetic role of the US towards the smaller power may be envisaged barring any or all outcomes in reality from past precedence. The US may very well side with the regional hegemon in the event the defence-nuclear-energy investments in India end up in multiples. In the latter case, Washington may ignore or overlook the plight of the smaller nation. Ultimately the US response to any such crisis will depend on whether bilateral relationship with Bangladesh is a) friendly and/or cooperative; b) inimical or indifferent; and or c) a client-nation or ally of the US. However, to obtain any moral or material support from the US, it is imperative for Bangladesh to maintain smooth bilateral relationship and a favourable country image.
Currently, the US-Bangladesh relations are beset with a host of issues, such as -- the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), democratic and human rights, labour rights, domestic political conditions, free and fair elections, freedom of press, Grameen Bank, extra-judicial killings and disappearances.
Cooperation between India, Bangladesh, and the United States in the regional transportation sector, communications, connectivity, economic integration will contribute to economic development and the realisation of the potential for growth of the economies involved in the region. Bangladesh aspires to be a regional hub and with cooperation from these powerful economies may be able to achieve its goal - by operationalising the conceptual plans into specific development schemes.
Specific areas for trilateral cooperation are the plans for the regional economic integration, energy trading, regional electricity grid, the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor, cross border trade, and improvements in regional transportation. Partnership dialogues with the US and the Trade and Investment Cooperation Framework Agreement (TICFA) offer significant prospects for Bangladesh in improving the bilateral relations. US assistance for enabling the Bangladesh navy by donating frigates for patrolling the waters of the Bay of Bengal against piracy and maritime security demonstrates the nature of a budding relationship independent of the strategic partnership with India.
Bangladesh needs to be mindful of the growing ties between India and the US and explore potential areas for trilateral cooperation. Bangladesh may offer some unique advantages to the Indo-US strategy but has to exhibit a willingness to be a team-player.
The writer is an analyst of American foreign policy
and national security.
rsheikh5@aol.com