Inflation to fall below 6.0pc in June

Country's major macroeconomic indicators are projected to witness an upward trend by the end of last quarter (Q4) of the current fiscal year (FY 2021-22).
The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka in its latest 'Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh' for January-March period of 2022 (Q3 of FY '22) has made the forecast.
It said the export earnings, which are expected to be US$ 4.82 billion this month (May), would stand at $4.91 billion next month (June), although the import expenditure would also increase to $7.79 billion, and it might cross $7.82 billion in June.
The inward remittance might stand at or even cross $2.16 billion in June, the MCCI projected. The trade organisation also projected the rate of point-to-point inflation to be reduced to 5.98 per cent in June, after increasing it to 6.45 per cent this month (May).
However, the country's foreign exchange reserve is likely to fall in May due to the payment to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU). The amount might reach $44.11 billion at the end of May and it may increase to 44.24 billion in June, according to the MCCI.
According to Bangladesh Bank, the forex reserve was more than $42 billion as on Wednesday last.
During the Q3 of FY '22, the MCCI said, the major macroeconomic indicators were in a satisfactory position.
The exports and imports - two important drivers of the economy - have done well amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it said, adding that the robust export earnings have facilitated economic recovery in the recent time.
The export-oriented apparel and leather, and domestic market-oriented steel, food-processing and transport sectors were running at full scale, said the MCCI.
On the other side, it added, some of the indicators appear to be less promising than projected earlier.
The fiscal framework continues to be weak in view of poor achievements, more specifically, both in terms of revenue mobilisation and public expenditure, the elite chamber observed.
It also said the unemployment situation and low investment remain as the main challenges.

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