Investments at risk due to climate change

On an average, there are around 1000 different development projects financed by the government under ADP. A BIDS study indicates that nearly 40 per cent of the projects need to be modified for possible mitigation or adaptation options. Projects in water sector including water and sanitation are largely in need of design changes. This means that the redesigning needs of so many projects will demand that the capacity of the government of Bangladesh has to be drastically enhanced in terms of possible adaptation and mitigation measures and their implementation. In terms of the total investment funds which are at risk, Bangladesh had an ADP of nearly US $3.5 billion. The BIDS Study suggests that of the total investment, more than half are estimated to be now at a risk due to climate change. In the agricultural sector, out of total allocation, more than two-thirds relates to projects demanding some modifications and adaptations. But in the case of water resources programmes and projects, almost the entire allocation needs to be taken up for incorporation of some adaptation measures. The economic costs of health effects caused due to hazards such as floods have been least covered in term of research so far in Bangladesh. The health effects via stresses and worries due to floods in Bangladesh can also be enormous. Mental stresses and anxieties over time may result in chains of huge indirect impacts - deterioration in health status and livelihood, for example. Unfortunately, the stress and psychological aspects of flood hazards have received little attention in Bangladesh, with almost no research on such effects due to flooding or any other natural hazards. Few impacts of intangible categories (e.g., health effects) can be measured in terms of money in a developing country like Bangladesh. There are again few methods of evaluating human losses and causalities. Whether or not a value should be assigned to human losses may be a subject of controversy, but the methods are not available to assign monetary values to human lives. The method based on either 'foregone earnings', or the 'human capital' approach is only advanced-countries oriented, having hardly any application in a developing country such as Bangladesh. Water management in the context of governance is particularly important as there is close interface between water and poverty and one of the important MDGs is to bring down, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of poor people to half. With many dynamic factors, and climate and weather changes, the situation with coastal zone takes on even more significance in respect to governance issues. Around one-third of the country's area with more than 35 million people live in the coastal environment. The area is characterized by undeveloped infrastructure and non-access to resources and institutions. This is accentuated by lack of transparency and accountability, gender disparity and problems with planning, management and resource allocation. The situation is particularly precarious in respect of water and governance. For instance, the capital city Dhaka had plenty of lakes and canals in the past. Water logging and urban flooding has recently emerged as alarming, which is created by drastic reduction of low-lying areas and thereby destruction of natural drainage system resulting from rapid urbanization and encroachment. Recovering the water bodies illegally grabbed by the influential and wealthy section of the society is only a much-discussed topic without any result so far. While discussing adaptation to climate change induced disasters, one has to recognize key regional differences in water resources potentials and water management needs. Regional variation in poverty is influenced by the incidence of natural hazards and tends to be higher in disaster-prone areas. There is a considerable interface between the persistence of chronic poverty and unfavorable agricultural environments. The level of poverty is typically higher for the landless. Not surprisingly, the incidence of extreme poverty is generally higher for the female-headed, female-managed and female supported households. Common property resources such as open access water bodies and public infrastructures such as regulators to control water flows have been used generously by the people in the country. However, the maintenance of the water bodies so developed and the facilities created have always been problematic. As these are basically public goods, establishing community property right on them is a possible means to maintain them and also put them to proper use so that they do not degrade as usually happens in case of unrestrained use of common property resources. The approach of participation of all stakeholders through formation of Water Management Associations (WMA), say, and, the process interaction with other institutions can improve the system and governance. Empirical experience shows that meaningful participation of all the stakeholders involved in water uses leads to good governance in administering various uses of water. If one takes the case of LGED's small-scale projects, one can observe that users' participation has led to increased decision making regarding planning, implementation, and maintenance, and as consequence poverty of particularly disadvantaged farm groups has been substantially reduced. Following women's crucial role in water management and hygiene education at household level, it is encouraged to note that, in the process, the role of women has been promoted through increased representation in the participatory management committees. Hence, stakeholders participation has to be enhanced in all spheres to deal with climate change and related issues One of the other governance problems is related to use access to water. Land and water use in the coastal areas is diverse. A number of conflicts and contradictions arise among water users such as agricultural farmers, shrimp farmers and salt producers in the coastal zone. Most of the conflicts are related to water use. Ironically, more often than not, there exist underhand arrangements between beneficiaries and concerned water authorities. Hence, a conflict resolution system should exist to deal with similar man-made water related disasters. The legitimate sharing of water from the trans-boundary rivers is crucially important for Bangladesh's existence Owing to reduced trans-boundary river flow salinity zone is increasing at an alarming rate, resulting in destruction of vegetative and aquatic environment and water stress in coastal areas and estuaries. The situation may further worsen if the Indian River Linking Project or the Tipai Mukhi Dam is implemented. With the continuing reduction of surface water flow, the country would eventually lose its reverie environmental characteristics. It is thus important to resolve trans-boundary river problems through dialogue with neighboring countries. Bangladesh has 54 common rivers with India and floods do not recognize political boundaries. Particularly the three international river networks have immense bearings on the Bangladesh floods. Over 90 per cent of the total catchments of these rivers are located outside of Bangladesh, and mostly in India. The knowledge management of trans-boundary river flows is thus crucially important for Bangladesh's existence. Besides with more advanced information on rainfalls, feeding Bangladesh with forecast information on flood for longer lead-time will help Bangladesh developing its warning system. Apart from increasing government level regional and international dialogues, public consultation of civil societies of upper and lower riparian countries would be helpful. The effects of forecasting and warning on flood response are not covered adequately in term of research but indeed flood damage can be substantially reduced with proper warning. One can recall that during the sudden post-monsoon flood in 2000 over the southwest region, which originated from outside Bangladesh, the nation was completely unprepared to face such an unprecedented 100 year flood at regional level. The event laid the importance of regional cooperation in order to ensure an effective early warning system, reminding us of the dire need for exchanging updated scientific data and information among our riparian neighbours. Relatively recently a much talked-about concept is IWRM, which includes taking on board the diverse stakeholders in coordinating land and water resources management in an integrated manner, to pursue conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater; and thus protecting natural systems. IWRM is a process which promotes coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. The IWRM can ensure stakeholders participation, inclusive decision-making and resolve conflicts between competing water uses and, therefore, facilitate adaptation in the water sector. Thus IWRM is considered a good starting point in order to address the impacts of climate change. This strategy is expected to contribute to pro-poor access to water and agricultural growth apart from to facilitating vulnerabilities reduction of the poor from water related hazards. However, concrete and coordinated research and studies have to be pursued in order to evaluate the performance of IWRM strategies. National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs) have been prepared to ensure planned interventions in the water sector and identify priority activities to respond to climate change and adaptations. There are two broad adaptation approaches. One is hazards-based approach which includes building physical infrastructure, sea defense, dykes and river bunds, disaster risk reduction and preparedness planning. The other approach, vulnerability-based approach, includes targeted safety-net programmes to strengthen livelihood assets. While PRSP in essence captured nature of problems related to CC management, so far re appears to be little follow-up on suggestions made by it. Although the Government has made considerable progress in establishing an institutional framework for DRR, many of the plans and policies are yet to witness implementation. A paradigm shift in disaster management from conventional response and relief practice to a more comprehensive risk reduction culture is only slowly taking place. Networking among donors and regional coordination still needs to be developed. It can also be observed that there is a gap in the transfer of knowledge about DRR from science to the project implementation at community level. In general coordination among actors has to be improved at all levels. Although a detailed system on Disaster Management has been put in place (by CDMP) with Disaster Management Committees at different levels, they are still not supported with adequate funds and power to carry out their responsibility. There appears to have no broad-based ownership of the plans, resulting in different stakeholders implementing them in too many different ways without any common national approach. Mainstreaming climate change The climate change impacts that Bangladesh will face are likely to be alarming. At the same time, floods are major sources of miseries and livelihood losses in Bangladesh. Concerted and coordinated efforts towards various adaptations are of utmost importance right now as any delay will create devastation with the growth prospects of the economy. It is important to take urgent steps in mainstreaming adaptation, mitigation and capacity building into national level planning and budgeting processes demanding of curse fundamental changes in the planning procedures particularly in the project approval process. The mainstreaming climate change will facilitate promoting sustainable economic development whereby the adverse impacts of current and future climate change on livelihoods can be minimized. In particular, following severe vulnerability of coastal population to climate change and terrible state of the water development and flood control, drainage projects (especially the polder projects in the coastal belt) there is an urgent need for their rehabilitation. Until very recently, many of such projects severely affected by tidal surges for years (more recently, first by Sidr and then by Aila, in particular) had been largely unattended. This was the top priority of coastal population, as suggested by many studies. Above all, climate change has to be looked at from multi-sectoral, multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary points of view but not all the issues discussed above are related to water. Additionally, not all the above-mentioned research endeavors are feasible for simultaneous actions but such activities are required to be taken up in phases. Above all, scientific knowledge and reliable data have to be pursued more robustly. Such data nonetheless should be widely accessible to researchers, and have to be meaningfully analyzed for the use of policy makers to reduce costs of responses. Fortunately or unfortunately, for many reasons Bangladesh is widely chosen as a laboratory of research and experimentations, and apparently, we have no dearth of research and policies but, ironically, without adequate and proper application and implementations . Above all, all efforts should be given to ensure well-coordinated research in order to avoid duplications and thereby minimize cost of climate change proofing. One has, however, to take into consideration of substantial regional and local perspectives across the country. Recent years have seen tremendous advancement in information technology in the form of Internet, GIS, remote sensing and satellite communication which are expected to help planning and implementation of hazards reduction measures. However, availability of information and technology will not be enough but it is important to have access to it and skill to use and apply in adaptation measures. Finally, it is imperative to promote stakeholder participation in dealing with climate change or any other hazard management. What is urgently needed is a strong, and reasonably decentralized local level administration and management. Vertical and lateral coordination among local government tiers must be established. Decentralized polices and local level programs in resource management may simultaneously promote growth and equity, both of which are key elements of sustainable development. Resource and power with a few hands at local levels in Bangladesh has potentially created an unhelpful environment in the society. Politicisation and undemocratisation of various institutions are potentially liable for deterioration in services to and use of resources by people. In fact, governance is at the core of all the problems. This is the edited version of a keynote paper presented by the writer at Jadabpur University, Kolkata last month. The writer is a Senior Research Fellow, BIDS, and Study Director, BME Study, Small Scale Water Resources Project. He can be reached at e-mail: nabiul@bids.org.bd