Iran could reach nuclear goal 'in a year'
Wednesday, 21 November 2007
Daniel Dombey and James Blitz
SEVERAL distinguished physicists and nuclear weapons experts say Iran is speeding up its nuclear programme and could develop enough material for a bomb well ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated by western intelligence agencies.
Speaking to the Financial Times, the experts said that information contained in last week's International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran made the US and European estimates of Tehran's nuclear capacity look ever more out of date.
"It looks like they could be there in a year," said Richard Garwin, one of the designers of the US's first H-bomb, referring to the possibility that Iran could build up a sufficient stockpile of enriched uranium in the next 12 months. That would mean it could produce enough weapons-grade material for a bomb at a few further months' notice.
"They could start getting a much more significant stockpile in 2008," said David Albright, a respected former United Nations weapons inspector. "Our worst estimate is that they could have enough [fissile material for a bomb] no sooner than 2009, but that's less than two years off."
He added: "If they are not to have enough by 2015, the programme would have to fail in some major way...and I can't see now how it would be as late as 2015."
"They're making progress, there's no question about that...A year from now, 18 months from now, they could easily have one bomb if their machines don't break," said Peter Zimmerman, a former chief scientist of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, emphasising that Iran was also testing more efficient centrifuges to enrich uranium, a process that can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material.
The US's most recent National Intelligence Estimates, compiled in 2005, said Iran was unlikely to develop enough weapons-grade material for a bomb until "early to mid-next decade".
At present, those datelines are still current, although Washington is working on a new estimate.
US officials sometimes simplify the estimate to say Iran will not be able to have a nuclear weapon before 2010-2015, although weaponisation is a separate process from enrichment and less is known about Tehran's progress in that field.
Prof Garwin said the IAEA report showed that Iran was stepping up uranium enrichment. The report says that between February and November this year Iran fed 1,240kg of uranium feedstock into its enrichment facility in Natanz, south of Tehran, up from 690kg between February and August.
This means that in the last three months Iran has pushed almost as much uranium through the system - 550kg - as it did in the preceding seven months. It also indicates that Natanz has not only expanded in size but may also now be operating more smoothly.
Prof Garwin said the figures signified that Iran would now have more than 100kg of fuel-grade uranium, which could be fed back into the system to produce weapons-grade material in a matter of months.
Scientists say that about 650kg of fuel-grade uranium, which is enriched to a level of about 4.0 to 5.0 per cent, would be enough to produce at relatively short notice 20kg-25kg of weapons-grade uranium, which is enriched to a level of 80 to 90 per cent. That would be sufficient for a simple bomb.
Mr Albright said he believed Iran should soon be able to produce between 75kg and 100kg extra of low-enriched uranium [enriched to 4.0-5.0 per cent] a month.
In Vienna, an IAEA official acknowledged there had been a "substantial increase" in the amount of feedstock being pushed through the system in recent months, although the IAEA insists it is still a relatively low figure and below the capacity of the Natanz plant.
Because the isotope uranium 235 is naturally found at levels of only 0.7 per cent in uranium, it is just as difficult to raise it to levels of 4.0-5.0 per cent for use as fuel as it is to bring it from 4.0-5.0 per cent to 80-90 per cent. Indeed, western analysts have long been afraid that Iran would accumulate a stockpile of low-enriched uranium of 4.0-5.0 per cent, to allow it to "break out" to become a nuclear weapon state at a few months' notice.
"All the information you need is in the report," Prof Garwin said. "There are very few assumptions involved...With the low-enriched uranium, you are two-thirds of the way there in terms of turning the 4.o per cent stuff into 90 per cent."
"Look at what they have done from August to November," said Prof Zimmerman. "They do three or four times that in the next 12 months or so and then they have enough contained uranium 235 to have the core of an implosion bomb if they run the low-enriched uranium back through a second pass in their cascades."
The report confirms that Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium - enough, if they were working smoothly, to produce sufficient uranium for a bomb within a year.
Under syndication arrangement with FE
SEVERAL distinguished physicists and nuclear weapons experts say Iran is speeding up its nuclear programme and could develop enough material for a bomb well ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated by western intelligence agencies.
Speaking to the Financial Times, the experts said that information contained in last week's International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran made the US and European estimates of Tehran's nuclear capacity look ever more out of date.
"It looks like they could be there in a year," said Richard Garwin, one of the designers of the US's first H-bomb, referring to the possibility that Iran could build up a sufficient stockpile of enriched uranium in the next 12 months. That would mean it could produce enough weapons-grade material for a bomb at a few further months' notice.
"They could start getting a much more significant stockpile in 2008," said David Albright, a respected former United Nations weapons inspector. "Our worst estimate is that they could have enough [fissile material for a bomb] no sooner than 2009, but that's less than two years off."
He added: "If they are not to have enough by 2015, the programme would have to fail in some major way...and I can't see now how it would be as late as 2015."
"They're making progress, there's no question about that...A year from now, 18 months from now, they could easily have one bomb if their machines don't break," said Peter Zimmerman, a former chief scientist of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, emphasising that Iran was also testing more efficient centrifuges to enrich uranium, a process that can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material.
The US's most recent National Intelligence Estimates, compiled in 2005, said Iran was unlikely to develop enough weapons-grade material for a bomb until "early to mid-next decade".
At present, those datelines are still current, although Washington is working on a new estimate.
US officials sometimes simplify the estimate to say Iran will not be able to have a nuclear weapon before 2010-2015, although weaponisation is a separate process from enrichment and less is known about Tehran's progress in that field.
Prof Garwin said the IAEA report showed that Iran was stepping up uranium enrichment. The report says that between February and November this year Iran fed 1,240kg of uranium feedstock into its enrichment facility in Natanz, south of Tehran, up from 690kg between February and August.
This means that in the last three months Iran has pushed almost as much uranium through the system - 550kg - as it did in the preceding seven months. It also indicates that Natanz has not only expanded in size but may also now be operating more smoothly.
Prof Garwin said the figures signified that Iran would now have more than 100kg of fuel-grade uranium, which could be fed back into the system to produce weapons-grade material in a matter of months.
Scientists say that about 650kg of fuel-grade uranium, which is enriched to a level of about 4.0 to 5.0 per cent, would be enough to produce at relatively short notice 20kg-25kg of weapons-grade uranium, which is enriched to a level of 80 to 90 per cent. That would be sufficient for a simple bomb.
Mr Albright said he believed Iran should soon be able to produce between 75kg and 100kg extra of low-enriched uranium [enriched to 4.0-5.0 per cent] a month.
In Vienna, an IAEA official acknowledged there had been a "substantial increase" in the amount of feedstock being pushed through the system in recent months, although the IAEA insists it is still a relatively low figure and below the capacity of the Natanz plant.
Because the isotope uranium 235 is naturally found at levels of only 0.7 per cent in uranium, it is just as difficult to raise it to levels of 4.0-5.0 per cent for use as fuel as it is to bring it from 4.0-5.0 per cent to 80-90 per cent. Indeed, western analysts have long been afraid that Iran would accumulate a stockpile of low-enriched uranium of 4.0-5.0 per cent, to allow it to "break out" to become a nuclear weapon state at a few months' notice.
"All the information you need is in the report," Prof Garwin said. "There are very few assumptions involved...With the low-enriched uranium, you are two-thirds of the way there in terms of turning the 4.o per cent stuff into 90 per cent."
"Look at what they have done from August to November," said Prof Zimmerman. "They do three or four times that in the next 12 months or so and then they have enough contained uranium 235 to have the core of an implosion bomb if they run the low-enriched uranium back through a second pass in their cascades."
The report confirms that Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium - enough, if they were working smoothly, to produce sufficient uranium for a bomb within a year.
Under syndication arrangement with FE