Iraq again in throes of instability

The fighting in Iraq has escalated as the government forces have launched intense counter-attack to regain the territories lost to the Sunni rebels. Meanwhile, Iraqi party leaders have planned delicate talks to find a successor to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The government forces, suffering heavy setbacks in the face of the lightning offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), are now using air attacks along with large-scale offensive by the ground troops to retake several areas  occupied by the ISIS activists. They are reported to have succeeded in dislodging the rebels from Tikrit, which had fallen to the rebels along with a major city Mosul in the early phase of ISIS offensive launched nearly two weeks ago.
But things are becoming difficult for the ISIS as the American military advisers have begun assisting the Baghdad troops as a part of President Barack Obama's plan to send several hundred such advisers to help the beleaguered government of Prime Minister Maliki. The premier is accused of failing to protect the country from the rebels on one hand and running a sectarian heavily Shia-dominated government, on the other. But Maliki is refusing to give in while parties in parliament are seeking a replacement for better governance of Iraq. All these are making the Iraqi scene more complicated.
The woes of Iraq, historically a land of civilisation in the Arab world, know no bounds. The country lands from one crisis to another and this has been particularly noticeable since the toppling of the Saddam Hussein government by the United States-led forces, an event that also saw capture and killing of Saddam through a 'judicial trial'. Saddam himself was a dictator, who killed his own people mercilessly just to remain in power, but removal of his government through external military had added a dangerous chapter to the topsy-turvy history of Iraq.
As the country remains under the grip of the pro-Western Baghdad government and is intermittently experiencing sectarian clashes and violence dealing a blow to the much-needed stability, Iraq has of late been jolted by the sensational blitz by the ISIS military offensive that caught the Baghdad authority largely unawares.
The militants, most of whom are Sunni, have taken over large swathe of territories in northern Iraq, causing all-round alarm, ranging from the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad to neighbouring Iran and far-away the United States. The reason of concerns in overwhelmingly Shia-majority Iran is understandable since it has close ties with the current Shia-led government in Iraq. The anxiety in Washington and its allies is too obvious for the simple reason that it had  brought about a sea-change in Iraq by toppling the anti-West Saddam Hussein. The Americans have the biggest stakes in the country, from where they withdrew their troops in 2011 barring a small number of technical and other staff, handing over the security of the trouble-ridden nation to the Iraqi forces.
But, it was a bizarre scene when many of these forces fled or surrendered to the Islamic militants, who took over cities like Mosul and Tikrit in a lightning speed. The development has sent tremors down the spines of the pro-Western government of the country, which has vowed to break the backbone of the ISIS, an outfit that is also involved in the civil war in neighbouring Syria. The group is also fighting against the Shia-influenced government of President Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Tehran, but opposed by the West. In the Syrian imbroglio, Iran and the US have divergent positions as far as the ISIS is concerned, but these are broadly similar in the latest Iraqi scenario.
The ISIS blitz came somewhat as a big surprise although Iraq is a fertile ground for clashes and violence ever since the West-backed authorities took over the reins of the nation. The ISIS, the Sunni-dominated group, is believed to be an outfit of former Al-Qaeda that broke away from the main organisation and is now pursuing its own policies. Even if it had made news earlier in Iraq through several incidents, the latest offensive is something that few had conceived of. For, their actions against a million-men strong Iraqi army, largely developed by the US, has puzzled many analysts. But neither the US nor Iran can relish a situation where the anti-Baghdad rebels succeed and both sides are assisting the Iraqi government that has resulted in a turnaround in the fighting.
The United States has sent an aircraft- carrier to the Gulf and kept its options open while President Barack Obama has made it clear that his administration is not sending troops again to Iraq. His position is understandable as it is he, who did not see eye to eye with his predecessor George W. Bush on the issue of American soldiers fighting in Iraq. Obama has slowly taken his troops out of Iraq and is highly unlikely to dispatch them again to a country that is grappling with domestic problems. However, his administration can not close its eyes when the militants  opposed to the Western-supported government in Iraq have made spectacular offensive and want to launch an attack on Baghdad.
For Iran, it found rare commonality with long-time hostile big power the US as both are opposed to the offensive of the ISIS in Iraq. But Iran, too, is not keen to assist the Baghdad government by sending troops although it has expressed willingness to help otherwise that has not been spelt out. Reports said Tehran has deployed army units close to the border with Iraq as a precautionary measure while it can not remain oblivious of the long Iraq-Iran war that brought no benefits to either nation.
Turkey too has stakes in northern Iraq because of the Kurds and Kurdistan issue. All these have made the scene quite complicated. Some analysts see the present situation leading to Iraq slowly being torn apart into three distinct parts - the Shia, the Sunni and the Kurds-dominated areas. But the territorial integrity of the country is important to many quarters.
The intentions of the ISIS are also not clear and their strength also remains unclear. Can they really withstand the counter-attack by the Iraqi troops aided by the US and also indirectly supported by  Iran? It will be difficult for the ISIS, which is known to be financially helped by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. Riyadh has cautioned all on the 'impending civil war' in Iraq.
It is difficult to assess the overall situation in Iraq because of myriad complications involved in the broad scene. The conditions in Iraq have been made it difficult for the non-Shias by the Maliki government because of excessive 'Shiaisation' of the administration and particularly security forces. The long civil war in Syria has further complicated the scenario while there is also an impression that interested quarters are also keen to inflame a Shia-Sunni fight centring such developments.
Influential Shia leader Ayatullah Ali-Sistani has urged Iraqi parties for talks for a possible successor to premier Maliki as he feels the change may help combat the rebels. The US also called for making the government more representative by accommodating more Sunnis and Kurds. But this is also causing differences, leaving Iraq potentially more divisive both politically and in the battle against the rebels.
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