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A CLOSE LOOK

Is there any chance of ME conflict escalating far and wide?

Nilratan Halder | Saturday, 21 October 2023


US President Joe Biden did not wait long for declaring his solidarity with Israel following the war that broke out between Hamas and the Jewish state. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK), Rishi Sunak took more than a week to follow in the footsteps of the US president. No Middle Eastern country, including the US's sworn-enemy Iran has so far made any such declaration in favour of Hamas or Hezbollah, the "party of God" that was instrumental in forcing withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from South Lebanon through guerrilla warfare in 2000.
The US and UK moves may be aimed at countering military aid from countries like Iran and Syria to Hamas and Hezbollah that has made its intention clear of joining the fray. No, no foreign power has as yet shown any interest in standing by Palestine, let alone Hamas. But Russian President Vladimir Putin in his objective appraisal of the Middle-East (ME) conflict has observed that the Palestinians have the inalienable right to an independent country. So, until now, the Israel-Hamas war risks no escalation beyond the region.
Biden and Sunak may have highlighted the legacy of injustice done to the Palestinians 75 years ago through the creation of a Jewish state on Palestinian land. The seed of dispute and animosity sown then may haunt them but the denial mode of foreign policy does not allow them to come clean on the issue of injustice. They still carry the legacy and side with the implanted state to perpetuate the conflict.
However, not all are like Biden and Sunak. Josh Paul, a US State Department official in the bureau that oversees arms transfer resigned in disgust and protest against sending arms and ammunition to Israel with its laying siege to Gaza. With his resignation from the position of the director of congressional and public affairs for the State Department's Political-Military Affairs for 11 years, he has already sent a clear message. But he made it further explicit in his resignation letter to this effect: Biden administration's "blind support for one side" is leading to such policy decisions as are "short-sighted, destructive, unjust and contradictory to the very values we publicly espouse". Still more significant is the speech by an Israeli MP, MK Ofer Cassif who dared accuse his country of attacking Gaza to "implement a fascist plan". In an oblique reference to holocaust he also compared Israel with Nazi Germany, warning that the State of Israel was "on a slippery slope" to fascism.
After the bombardment on a Gaza hospital, the comparison does not seems to be exaggerated. Again Biden comes, rather preposterously, in defence of Israel. He said available data showed Israel did not attack the hospital. Which data did he have to make such a claim? He does not seem to be concerned much about the killing of innocent lives if those are on the Palestinian side. Rather, he is interested in shifting the blame on Hamas.
By siding with Israel, Biden and Sunak have exposed their fraternity with the country their predecessors created artificially. Now the question is, aren't they a party to the unremitting repression and violation of the Palestinians' rights, which in fact have led to the Hamas attacks on Israel? It is an explosion of suppressed agony and anger against a repressive force that has moreover spread its roots on their land.
Now the international community's concern is, if this war will escalate far and away. A divided world on the war in Ukraine indeed has a fair chance of getting embroiled in a larger conflict. The Taiwan showdown may act as the incendiary if China made a penetrative move at a time the ME conflict has to some degree sidelined the Ukraine war. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already expressed his deep concern that the war in the ME would relegate his requirement for Western military aid to the backburner. Although the French president has assured that it would not happen, there is no guarantee if ME nations decide to actively come to help Hamas and Hezbollah.
All such political factors have the potential to spread the war beyond the Israel-Palestine-Lebanon border. At a time when the world is staring in the face of food insecurity, the humanitarian disasters wrought by natural calamities in many parts of the world, including Afghanistan, particularly following the earthquake, are proving overwhelming. Now the addition of such humanitarian disasters in Gaza can work on emotions not guided by rationality and reason. The greatest fear indeed lies there.