It\\\'s time to keep fingers crossed

Businesses, particularly their representative bodies, generally raise alarm in the case of prolonged and violent political troubles.
In Bangladesh, major political troubles had originated from poll-related differences among political parties and the ongoing one does also have the same origin.
The trade bodies, primarily, the apex one, during the earlier political crises, were found expressing deep concern over 'deepening' political crisis, organising frequent meetings among themselves and urging the heads of the governments and major political parties to end the political 'impasse' so that economic activities could go on smoothly.
This time also a section of business leaders, led by the head of the apex trade body, have made a repeat performance. But, unfortunately, like the previous occasions, their bid could not break the ice.
The businesses do need to examine why the politicians do not take the appeals made by their leaders seriously. Is the system of electing the leadership of their representative bodies flawed? Is the process of election anyway influenced by politics? These are the two questions that deserve serious examination on the part of the businesses.
This time too when political troubles on the streets turned violent and prolonged, the business leaders tried to stop the mayhem on the streets. But the warring parties as usual ignored their appeal and staunchly carried on with their respective style of politics. However, when the UN and the powerful nations could not make any headway, what else our business leaders could do?
Now after the 10th parliamentary election amidst widespread violence and low voters' turnout, the credibility of the results has been the questioned by different quarters. However, the people are not aware of the extent of the damage caused to the economy by the confrontational politics. In fact, they would not know it ever for it is hard to get authentic statistics about it. Moreover, in the past the serious concerns expressed by the businesses about extent of damage to the economy did not match with the macro-economic indicators, published later.
The country had gone through prolonged phases of political troubles in the late eighties, mid-nineties and in 2006. Despite widespread fear about major damage, the economy did not performed as badly as the businesses had predicted. Will it be so this time also? Unlikely.
Indications are galore that the economy is going to be a major victim of politics which had never been so ugly and violent in the past.
Exports might have done well in the first half of the current fiscal, but the adverse fallout would be evident in the next few months. The growth of remittance inflow between July-November period of the current fiscal declined compared to that of the corresponding period of the last one. The decline was for the first time in a decade. The profits made by the banks in 2013 declined. This has made the National Board of Revenue (NBR) worried. The tax revenue collected by the NBR in the first half of the fiscal 2014 is Tk 60 billion lower than the target.
The foreign exchange (forex) reserve is healthy but the current account surplus has been shrinking. Inflation has been creeping up, mainly because of disruption in supply chain. Foreign aid commitments declined 22 per cent during July-November period of this fiscal over that of the corresponding period of the previous one.
There are a lot of identical statistics that would only make the frustration deeper. But what is not being seen in the naked eye is the economic hardship of the day labourers, poor transport workers, roadside vendors, self-employed people, so-called middlemen dominating the supply chain and small traders.
The process of pauperisation has gained strength in recent months. The poor people's plight is very much evident from the queues before the trucks selling government rice at a somewhat reduced price. Few people used to buy the 'fair price' rice six months back. But for the last one month the queues have been getting longer and longer as the price of the main staple has recorded a substantial rise in the retail markets.
The election is over but not the worries. It is widely feared that the opposition alliance, headed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), would continue its programme of agitation unless and until the new government, scheduled to take over after January 24 next, starts meaningful negotiations with it (opposition alliance). There could also be some unpalatable developments on the external front. So, all, including the businesses, are left, as of now, with little options other than keeping their fingers crossed.   
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