Keeping the economy unhurt from political programmes

Bangladesh has a population of about 152 million people (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2012) with a corresponding population density of more than 1,115 persons per square kilometer, the highest in a country on earth. The country has made substantial progress in reducing poverty -- the percentage of population living below the poverty line went down from more than 80 per cent in early 1970s to 26.40 per cent in 2012. It is on track in many of the MDG (Millennium Development Goals) areas -- primary schooling, gender parity in primary and secondary level education, lowering the under-five mortality rate, reducing the incidence of communicable diseases and improving indicators on the environmental changes.
The current youth 'bulge' in the population structure of Bangladesh offers a one-time demographic window of economic opportunity. With appropriate intervention, policies and governance, Bangladesh can take this advantage to launch economic, social, cultural, and structural transformation. For this we need to have growth pattern that generates employment, particularly in the rural economy. Attaining gender equality and greater women participation in labour force will help reduce level of fertility. We can also learn from Chinese experience how they utilised and managed population resources in the era of unprecedented economic growth cycles.
Very few nations of the world are blessed as Bangladesh is with enormous human resource potentials. The country could be a global power if it can provide education and skills to its talented and energetic young people.
At present, Bangladesh is one of the highest remittance-receiving countries in the world. Mostly blue-collar workers are sending the remittance to Bangladesh. If we can train them properly ahead of going abroad, the earnings from remittance could be doubled. At present, nearly 8.0 million Bangladeshis are working in 156 countries across the world.
Remittance inflows to Bangladesh crossed US$14 billion for the first time in FY13. Apart from the increase in manpower export in 2012, the increased value of dollar against taka in most of the months of the fiscal was a major factor behind the rise in remittances. In FY13, remittance inflows to Bangladesh increased by 12.6 per cent to US$14,460 million from US$12,843 million in the previous fiscal.
Our export basket is mostly dependent on readymade garments sector. Of the major products, Bangladesh exported knitwear worth US$10,476 million and woven products worth US$11,040 million in July-June of FY13, a 10.4 per cent and 15.0 per cent year-on-year rise respectively. Diversification of product baskets and exploring to new markets will help our export to grow further and it is only possible through creating skilled human resources.  Apart from RMG, sectors like agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, leather, handicrafts, footwear, ceramic, frozen foods, furniture, carpet etc., are facing dearth of skilled manpower.
SME is another thriving area of our economy which also needs huge skilled manpower. The SME areas are so vast that we can reduce our growing unemployment problem to a large extent through developing the sector. According to the Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, total SME loans disbursed by all banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) increased by Tk. 68.53 billion or 7.7 per cent to Tk 95.52 billion at the end of March, 2013 as compared to Tk.886.70 billion at the end of March, 2012. The disbursement of SME loans was 21 per cent of total loans disbursed by all banks and NBFIs in March, 2013.
All institutional providers, viz., the foreign banks, the state-owned banks, the specialised banks, private banks and NBFIs now provide credit to SME enterprises.
Proper human resource management, therefore, should take into consideration how institutions and facilities could be developed to train our youths so that they can serve the nation and also themselves. The population 'bonus' opportunity opens up for a country only once. We cannot and should not miss this golden opportunity.
If we fail to grab this opportunity immediately, this young population could create a disastrous hazard for the nation. This demographic bonus could bring a huge dividend, if this raw human capital is converted into circulatory capital. Development partnership has also to be forged to have effective population management policies for Bangladesh.
Over the years, we have maintained favourable signs of sustained economic growth despite some natural and man-made odds. JP Morgan produced a report in April 2007 ('From Ho Chi Minh Trail to Mexico') where Bangladesh was included in the 'Frontier Five'. The Frontier Five was selected on the relative attractiveness of these markets based on macro-economic and demographic trends.
It is the demographics of Bangladesh that justifies its inclusion in the JP Morgan Frontier Five. The country ranks fourth in growth in economically active population. Progress has been made over the last few years towards reducing poverty, increasing literacy levels and moderating population growth to a more sustainable level. An assertive judiciary, active civil society and a relatively free media have increased public accountability'.
Goldman Sachs included Bangladesh in its 'Next 11' after the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, which identified countries that have the potential to emulate the BRIC nations which are being forecasted to rival developed economies. Goldman Sachs evaluated the countries on the basis of macroeconomic stability, political maturity, education, openness of trade and investment regulations.
Bangladesh has enjoyed about 10 years' worth of steady, impressive growth; its economy has grown steadily for the past five years despite the global financial crisis.
The government hopes to make Bangladesh a middle-income country by 2021. Already its per capita income has more than doubled over the past decade to over $800, and is on track to soon reach $1,000.
Bangladesh's success story is not just limited to its RMG manufacturing prowess.  British magazine, The Economist, echoed in its December 03, 2013 issue, "Bangladesh has dysfunctional politics and a stunted private sector. Yet it has been surprisingly good at improving the lives of its poor". Nobel Laureate economist Amartya Sen agrees and, in the past year, has gone to great lengths to examine the progress in human development in South Asia, arguing, with much exuberance, that Bangladesh with some unique but striking features in its human development strategy stands out well ahead of India in many indicators of human development.
Bangladesh's merchandise exports plus imports as a share of GDP - a measure of trade openness - has crossed 55 per cent in FY12 against 20 per cent in 1990. Import and export growth are strongly correlated because much of Bangladesh's exports rely on imported inputs; but the two indicators diverged in FY13, which ended with another strong year for export growth (11 per cent) in spite of all the talk of RMG buyers taking flight to other shores, and imports continued to slide with a growth of barely 1 per cent.
Trade deficit has shrunk and the foreign currency reserves have hit a new high of $17.32 billion which would provide comfortable cover for over 5 months of projected imports. The balance of payments showed a large surplus of $7 billion in FY13, thanks to favourable aid inflows.
A stable political environment is of crucial importance to us to achieve higher socio-economic objectives as a nation. The business community already urged the ruling and opposition parties to stay away from all political activities that are counter-productive. What our nation needs most at this time is commitment from our politicians to the cause of the common people, and their pledge to make the nation free from poverty and create employment opportunities for all.
The business community also acknowledged that there is no alternative to keeping the democratic process alive and making the democratic institutions stronger as the key factor for inclusive socio-economic growth in a functioning democracy. Differences of opinion may exist, but there are ways to settle the differences instead of  hartals, blockades and politics of destruction.
In this regard, the business community feels that the political situation can be made more people-friendly and business-friendly if the ruling and opposition parties demonstrate tolerance and are willing to settle their differences through dialogues and negotiations keeping 'economy' unhurt in any political programmes.
The writer is a former president of FBCCI and chairman of                   Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd. azad@hameemgroup.com