Khatami plots comeback
Tuesday, 25 September 2007
Najmeh Bozorgmehr
IRAN'S reform-minded former president, Mohammad Khatami, is considering running for the 2009 elections in the apparent hope that he will be seen as a saviour who can extricate Iran from domestic and international troubles.
While cautioning that it is still early days, close allies of Mr Khatami say he remains one of the rare personalities in Iran who has enough appeal to wrest the presidency from fundamentalists. "He is willing to run and we think he'll win in a landslide if elections were held today. But we still have to wait and test the waters in due time," said one ally.
Another ally said Mr Khatami had become increasingly pessimistic about Iran's prospects, with the escalation of the nuclear dispute with the west and the deterioration of relations with Europe under the radical President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.
Diplomats from the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council met in Washington Friday to discuss further action against Iran over its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.
"He thinks both domestic and international developments will go in such a wrong direction that the regime [leaders] will ask him to run to help the survival of the system," said the ally.
Whether this proves to be more than wishful thinking remains to be seen. Mr Khatami, who governed in 1997-2005 with a reformist agenda that advocated "religious democracy" at home and detente with the west, ended his second term disillusioned and facing accusations that he had disappointed his support base.
While hardliners blocked some of his key reforms, including attempts to expand the powers of the presidency, his followers became disenchanted with his inclination to compromise rather than confront his opponents.
His government's emphasis on political reform - overshadowing attention on social and economic problems - also proved costly, facilitating the rise of a populist Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.
In the absence of credible opinion polls, it is difficult to gauge the popularity of either man.
But Mr Khatami has joined forces with the so-called conservative pragmatists - the moderate conservatives close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, also a former president - to undermine Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.
They are hoping that within two years, the president's populist economic policies - to reduce inflation and tackle unemployment - would have sufficiently backfired and provoked an erosion of popular support.
The first test of their political weight will be in the parliamentary elections in March. Radical forces in the regime, however, are already mobilising against Mr Khatami.
The conservative media posted a video in June showing him shaking hands with Italian women during a visit, something considered taboo by the clergy.
His denial of the incident did not stop young radical clerics in the holy city of Qom from taking his case to the Special Court for Clergy and calling for him to be defrocked.
Analysts said the case showed that radicals might be looking to disqualify Mr Khatami from the presidential poll.
According to the constitution, the Guardian Council has to vet presidential candidates for their belief in Islam and the principles of the regime.
..........................................
— FT Syndication Service
IRAN'S reform-minded former president, Mohammad Khatami, is considering running for the 2009 elections in the apparent hope that he will be seen as a saviour who can extricate Iran from domestic and international troubles.
While cautioning that it is still early days, close allies of Mr Khatami say he remains one of the rare personalities in Iran who has enough appeal to wrest the presidency from fundamentalists. "He is willing to run and we think he'll win in a landslide if elections were held today. But we still have to wait and test the waters in due time," said one ally.
Another ally said Mr Khatami had become increasingly pessimistic about Iran's prospects, with the escalation of the nuclear dispute with the west and the deterioration of relations with Europe under the radical President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.
Diplomats from the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council met in Washington Friday to discuss further action against Iran over its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.
"He thinks both domestic and international developments will go in such a wrong direction that the regime [leaders] will ask him to run to help the survival of the system," said the ally.
Whether this proves to be more than wishful thinking remains to be seen. Mr Khatami, who governed in 1997-2005 with a reformist agenda that advocated "religious democracy" at home and detente with the west, ended his second term disillusioned and facing accusations that he had disappointed his support base.
While hardliners blocked some of his key reforms, including attempts to expand the powers of the presidency, his followers became disenchanted with his inclination to compromise rather than confront his opponents.
His government's emphasis on political reform - overshadowing attention on social and economic problems - also proved costly, facilitating the rise of a populist Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.
In the absence of credible opinion polls, it is difficult to gauge the popularity of either man.
But Mr Khatami has joined forces with the so-called conservative pragmatists - the moderate conservatives close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, also a former president - to undermine Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.
They are hoping that within two years, the president's populist economic policies - to reduce inflation and tackle unemployment - would have sufficiently backfired and provoked an erosion of popular support.
The first test of their political weight will be in the parliamentary elections in March. Radical forces in the regime, however, are already mobilising against Mr Khatami.
The conservative media posted a video in June showing him shaking hands with Italian women during a visit, something considered taboo by the clergy.
His denial of the incident did not stop young radical clerics in the holy city of Qom from taking his case to the Special Court for Clergy and calling for him to be defrocked.
Analysts said the case showed that radicals might be looking to disqualify Mr Khatami from the presidential poll.
According to the constitution, the Guardian Council has to vet presidential candidates for their belief in Islam and the principles of the regime.
..........................................
— FT Syndication Service