Life after Trump 2.0

Vindicating his name, Donald Trump trumped all predictions made about the presidential election being on knife-edge and going down to the wire. The landslide victory scored by him left pollsters and media pundits red-faced because they had anticipated nothing like this to be possible. A convicted felon, a self-avowed womaniser and an instigator of riot on Capitol Hill breaking all past records in winning overwhelming popular support for himself as president and taking his party along to be in charge of both the houses of the Congress was beyond the imagination of even the die-hard Republicans. Even astute political analysts, looking at the various polls with less than five per cent margin of error, were hesitant to make any bet for either of the candidates. Grabbing all the electoral votes in all the seven 'swing states' Donald Trump not only befuddled the pollsters and political pundits but at the same time created history in being poised to become the most powerful and consequential American president in recent times.
As the investigations into what caused the tectonic shift in voters' choice continue in the think tanks, people across the globe are wondering what Donald Trump's second term in the office will mean for their lives. But there is not much to guess about the agenda as president-elect Trump has already revealed his hand, keeping no secrets. His second tenure will be mostly a re-run of the first, priority wise, plus it will see some of the recent scores being settled, giving vent to his personal grievances. If there is one lesson that Trump has learnt from his first stint in office, it is that loyalty matters most, even more than efficiency and experience. So, he has picked up persons for different cabinet posts who can be relied upon in implementing his programmes in different sectors. In the process his choice for important offices has already raised eyebrows, not least in his own party. For secretary of state he has nominated Florida Congressman Mark Rubio, whose only credential for the post is that he shares Trump's China phobia. It will not be difficult for him to get past Senate approval. But the nomination of Matt Gaetz as the top law officer of Trump administration has already hit the hornet's nest. Critics have lost no time in digging up his sleazy past which is shadowed by charges of bribery, drug addiction and sexual offence. Though he denied these allegations investigations were made by the House of Representatives which have left a stain on his name. Robert F Kennedy Jr., a scion of a gilded political dynasty, nominated as the next Health Secretary, has been seen as the unlikely candidate because of his denial of Covid as a dangerous virus. More controversial than Kennedy is the nomination of Pete Hegseth,a former National Guardsman and currently a host in Fox television. His lack of experience and expertise in the subject of defence has greatly upset the defence establishment. The nomination of former Democrat, Tulsi Gabbard as National Intelligence Chief, on the other hand, has been a matter of concern to security experts because of her open support of Russia. Ellon Musk, the richest man in America, is not a popular figure among general public and is not trusted by politicians. His inclusion in the cabinet will not go down well with many. One of Trump's latest pick is oil executive Chris Wright, nominated as energy secretary. Wright, the CEO of a fracking (exploring undersea oil reserves) company, is expected to fulfil Trump's campaign promise to increase fossil fuel production - ramping up climate change scepticism. Under his stewardship there will be unlimited fracking, which has already made US the world's highest oil producer.
Trump's nominations have alarmed both Democrats and Republicans for the potential damage that the new team could wreak because of their unconventional thinking and beliefs about what is good for America. The Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson minced no words when he said 'Trump is tapping disrupters to lead his incoming administration. They are persons who will shake up the status quo'. But having given his party a great gift with his victory, Trump knows his wishes will be respected by fellow Republicans when his nominees face vetting in Senate. His son, Donald Trump Jr, is on record acknowledging that some could face rejection and said,' we do have back-up plans'.
With minor hiccups over his candidates' vetting, Trump can be expected to begin his second tenure as President with a bang, implementing his priority programmes one after another, or simultaneously. The decisions taken and policies made are going to affect the lives of people in America and beyond profoundly.
Domestically, his 'make America great again' campaign will see hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants rounded up and herded into detention centres before deportation. The most heartrending effect of this move will be cases of children being separated from parents, as it happened during his first term. But that was an experimental programme; this time such separation will be across the board and begin from day one of his four year tenure. There will be resistance from liberal democratic states leading to skirmishes between federal and state law enforcers. Besides, lengthy litigations may result in cases where the illegality of residence by immigrants may not be clear-cut. As regards preventing new immigrants, border protection and security will be tightened with more infrastructures built and beefed up patrolling round the clock. But human traffickers will not be deterred by these harsh measures; their fees for smuggling people will see a sharp rise.
The effect of deportation of undocumented immigrants will be felt by Americans who will have to by vegetables and other labour- intensive products at higher prices, cheap labour being unavailable. The cumulative effect of deportation of immigrants, who are both producers and consumers, on American economy will be felt in reduction in gross domestic product (GDP).
Though Trump has won the presidency on the back of populist protest against receiving a raw deal from globalisation and high tech revolution, his fiscal policy of lower taxes will benefit more the rich than the middle and working class. His promise of de-regulation at breakneck speed will make the rich richer by removing restrictions and ceilings on income tax. During his first term he brought corporate tax to 20 per cent, down from 40 per cent. The Biden administration raised it to 30 per cent which will now be revised lower in all likelihood. The presence of Ellon Musk in the cabinet will see to it that the interests of the rich are protected adequately.
Trump's priority action of slapping 20 per cent tariff on worldwide imports and a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China will in fact be a tax on American consumers who will bear the brunt of enhanced prices for imported goods. Among the consumers, the middle class and working class will be hit harder than the rich. So, the cost of living of general public in America will rise as a result of the protectionist policy that is going to be put into effect after the president- elect enters White House.
The middle and working class cannot expect any relief in terms of health services either as Trump has sworn to dismantle former president Barrack Obama's Affordable Health Care Programme to please the private sector insurance companies.
The only promise made by Trump to improve the standard of living of American middle and working class is his call for American companies to return home and invest in manufacturing to create jobs for Americans. But the companies Trump wants to lure back with tax incentives are high-tech industries which require a small number of highly skilled workers. As regards labour-intensive sunset industries that have been taken over by developing countries because of comparative advantage, there is very little likelihood of a flood of new investment in America because of uncertainty in future when similar tariff protection may not be available. Tariff as a tool of industrial policy is not going to work, either in the short or in the long term. President Donald Trump 2.0, therefore, is not going to be a harbinger of a more comfortable life for America's middle and working class. It will be a plutocracy that will be entrenched to enrich the few who are already in a privileged position in the economy.
Looking beyond the economy, life for many professionals appear poised to be eroded, if not totally destroyed .Reports are already abroad that Trump has plans to establish a 'warrior board' empowered to force out senior military officers, replacing them with loyalists. In his first term, Trump was annoyed when some generals insisted that their loyalty was to the constitution, not to him personally.
On the other hand, American intelligence community is aghast at the proposed appointment of Tulsi Gabbard whose support for President Putin makes her a security risk, both for American and European intelligence establishment.
American science and medicine have provided leadership to the world which now is on the cusp of being demolished. Rightwing scientists, patronised by the Republicans, have all along questioned the validity of scientific evidence behind climate change. After Trump takes office, this sceptical, even cynical, attitude is going to undermine the collective wisdom put behind the agreements on reducing carbon emissions. This is attested by the fact that he withdrew from the landmark Paris Accord of 2015 after becoming president in 2016. America being the highest polluter in the world, its non-participation will not only mean that objective scientific research on climate change will be shelved in America, but also occurrences of natural calamities in greater frequency. As regards medical science, Trump's proposal to put Robert F Kennedy (RFK) Jr, a non- believer in vaccine, in charge of the health ministry will place health and wellbeing of Americans in jeopardy. It is widely apprehended that if RFK imposes his vaccine hostility on the Americans, he will sow the seeds of future epidemics, endangering their lives.
American greatness is founded on its adherence to rule of law. But Trump seems determined to use the justice system to take revenge against his 'enemies.' That bodes ill not only for those caught in the witch hunt, but for the whole country as investors could take fright at the politicisation of the justice system', commented Gideon Rachman, a regular contributor to Financial Times(FT).Trump may also misuse the justice system to reward his billionaire supporters, like Elon Musk.
The worst to suffer during Trump adminidtration as a class is women.Using the Republican majority Supreme Court, Trump managed to get The Roe vs Wade verdict overturned that allowed women to access abortion. In his second term he will ensure that women's right to life and their body is shredded so comprehensively that it will be difficult for them to terminate unwanted pregnancy even in liberal states.
Internationally, Trump is going to remain steadfast on his isolationist policy by playing footie with multilateral institutions like World Trade Organization (WTO), the UN and regional security blocs like NATO. Undermining the rule-based trading system supervised by WTO will mean lesser volume of trade among member countries which in turn will reduce global economic growth. This will adversely affect the economic growth and wellbeing of all countries. Trump's policy of protectionist policy and degrading WTO is of a piece with his plan to reduce America's growing balance of trade deficits. As is well-known, balance of trade is the difference between aggregate incomes and spending (or savings and investment). So long this remains unchanged, the trade balance remains unchanged, too. America has spent more than its income for a long time. This is shown in the consistent net supply of foreign savings, which averaged 3.9 per cent of GDP between 2021 and 2024.This means the domestic sector in aggregate must have been running counterpart deficits. If America wants to eliminate the external deficits, domestic sectors have to adjust in the opposite direction, towards higher surpluses of savings. The biggest adjustment has to come from huge fiscal deficits. It seems Trumpian economics has not taken this basic fact into consideration while adopting the policy of protectionist tariff.
While Trump's economic policy is destined to spell disaster in the daily lives of majority people in America and abroad, his stance on climate change will exacerbate the hardships of living for people across the world. Heat waves resulting in wild fire, rise in ocean level due to melting of ice, cyclones ,floods and drought will recur with greater frequency making living uncertain and unbearable.
Trump's isolationist policy in foreign affairs does not exclude selective intervention to assert American preference for a particular political world order. He will force Ukraine to settle for an unequal peace treaty because of his personal 'debt' to president Putin. Israel, on the other hand, will be given carte blanche to annex the remaining parts of Palestine, putting paid to the idea of a two- state solution. To make the state of Israel feel secure, America under Trump may jointly invade Iran for an end to the present regime and its nuclear project. But his Abraham project bringing together Arab states under an alliance with Israel will remain incomplete with Saudi Arabia and others having second thoughts seeing the proposed Palestine state being denied by America.
Relations with North Korea and China will worsen, on nuclear issue and on trade dispute, respectively. Arms race will continue unabated despite Trump's avowed policy of shunning war. The war industry and military establishment will thrive, capitalising on the slogan of ' making America great again' (MAGA). Defence expenditures will increase even if there is no shooting war.
To sum up, life in America and the world beyond will become bleak and dreary for the majority of people after Donald Trump begins his second tenure. Only his billionaire cronies will benefit from his MAGA project. Disgusted with the prospect some American celebrities like Berbara Streisand, Cher, Myley Cyrus and others have left America to live in Canada and Australia. But every critic of Trump cannot afford to vote with their feet. They have no other alternative but to suffer his egotistical rule for the next four years while cursing a political system that throws up a leader like him. Speaking unromantically, democracy is 'a many splendored thing'.

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