Looking ahead in the new year: Need for a coordinated effort

Most of 2015 passed away amid violence and disorder across the world as we witnessed uncertainties in political and economic fields. The developed countries sank into unforeseen depression that seriously shook the economies for the worse. Year 2016, however, dawned on a positive note. Economic depression in EU countries has largely subsided despite influx of refugees from Asia and Africa. Employment in the US recorded significant rise late last year and the refugee problem that erupted due largely to conflicts in the middle east and Africa, was largely overcome through prudent distribution of migrants among the countries of the European Union.  
Despite some positive indications, forecasts of estimated growth in developed countries including those of the EU do not look all that promising. On the contrary, the growth prospects of some Asian countries, mostly developing ones like Bangladesh, are somewhat encouraging as predicted by a number of international organisations. Different research organisations have forecast that Bangladesh, India, China, Indonesia and South Korea will have higher growth rate in 2016 than other regions of the world. The anticipated growth rate in China is likely to falter compared to the receding years. In contrast, Bangladesh's growth prospects appear brighter this year. But we shall have to be cautious in certain areas. Newer markets will have to be explored for expansion of export trade. As very little can be predicted about how the continuing global economic crisis and complications arising out of refugee crisis behave in the coming months, we shall have to be watchful. Exploration of new markets for export of non-traditional items will help create markets for traditional items as well. Additionally, successful attempts of market hunting for non-traditional items are also likely to have positive effects on our rural economy.
The prevailing stagnancy in investment, both local and foreign, will have to be overcome by creating an investment friendly environment. Apprehension of natural calamities has gripped the world and according to experts the number and extent of natural calamities are going to further increase during the coming months. We have noticed in the past the colossal damages caused by natural disasters. There is a common perception that natural calamities do not have much impact on the developed economies which was proved wrong when Tsunami struck Japan in 2011. We also noticed the colossal devastation caused by recent earthquakes in Nepal and saw how a major disaster can have a lasting effect on the economy of a less developed nation.   
The recent unrest in the Chinese economy should also be eyed with prudence, and a detailed plan should be so formulated that shock in a large economy does not depress our economic planning and activities. Arrangements should be in place so that such impact of calamity in the world, if any, can be overcome in shortest possible time. The priority on exports given by our competitors is noticeable if we take the example of Myanmar. In order to retain our present position in RMG, attention should be given to produce necessary raw materials at home instead of importing those from outside. At the same time market intelligence should be strengthened to identify priority sectors of our competitors.  
Although our achievements in various sectors including human resource development have been commendable, we remain vulnerable to natural calamities and greater capacity building will be required in this area to keep damages to the minimum, as it is not possible to ascertain the kind of foreign assistance that may be received if we are struck by a natural disaster. Bangladesh is situated in the region to be worst affected by climate change, which leaves us with no other choice but strengthen our capacity to battle against climate change since our defence against such calamities is rather fragile.
According to experts, we need to make a coordinated effort to utilise all our resources along side creating efficient human resources. The marginal populace will have to be included in the main stream of development activities to meet desired goals. Steps should be taken to improve the life standard of the marginal community to achieve targets for poverty reduction, or else it may be difficult to retain the growth rate.
Very often we are warned about the possibility of strong tremors in the country, but the status of our preparedness to fight the calamity is still unclear. Whereas adequate preparedness can help minimise the extent of damages, we must not forget that an earthquake of medium intensity is enough to cause extensive damages if we do not have pre-emptive measures in place. Years of achievement may be grounded to dust by an earthquake in seconds and since no specific forecast can be made about an earthquake, it is all the more essential for us to have sufficient defence against possible damages.
 In addition, there should be research on the probable impacts of an earthquake on our gas transmission lines. Alongside research, use of modern technology will have to be expanded and efforts should be taken to increase manpower for efficient use of technology. In case road communication is disrupted, essential services may be reached by water for which existing water ways must be maintained properly throughout the year. Experts have predicted that fish production will go down due to climate change. Several species of fishes are already extinct due to excessive use of pesticides. Besides, a number canals and rivers are being affected by intrusion of salinity due to increased height of sea level and sanctuary for fishes is being gradually squeezed. This will increase prices of sweet water fish and affect the rural poor badly.   
Experts are of the view that season changes will be irregular for which production of crops will be affected. New crop varieties, particularly salinity resistant varieties, will have to be found. In addition, preventive measurers to resist the spread of diseases will have to be taken. As of now, there is an increasing pressure of patients on the hospitals. Measures will have to be taken so that the pressure does not increase abnormally, because in that case the economy will be affected negatively. Therefore, a coordinated effort of ministries of environment, agriculture, health and local government will have to be made.
Although various organisations issued forewarnings on uncertainties that may appear in the economic field due to climate change, it has been noticed that developed countries fell short of breath while confronting such uncertainties in recent past. This necessitates adoption of timely measures to fight all such uncertainties across the national economy.
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