Looking East -- economic and strategic orientation for Bangladesh
Monday, 25 October 2010
Shah Muhammad Sultan Uddin Iqbal
Bangladesh is a land of unique culture, rich history, and 160 million peace loving people comprising 88.5% Muslims, 10.2% Hindus, rest Buddhist, Christians and other religions. It lies at a strategic point of South and East Asia. This location gives Bangladesh a unique position to serve as bridge between East and South Asia. These potentialities of Bangladesh have, so far, remained in mire due to factors of which geo-political reasons and strategic economic planning stands out most. Bangladesh has overcome those aspects and now looks forward towards a bright future. Our today's leadership under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has embarked upon a great vision of steering the nation by making Bangladesh a middle income country by 2021. The World Bank in a rare support of this vision (including poverty reduction) has endorsed a US$ 6.0 billion credit as 'new country assistance strategy' for fiscal year 2011-2014. The IMF too, has endorsed its willingness to help Bangladesh develop energy and infrastructure. The assurance came after the director for IMF for Asia and Pacific met Bangladesh PM at her office on 7th September 2010. As such, it is necessary to explain in brief the economic and strategic steps that Bangladesh has taken following her foreign policy orientation of 'Looking East Policy.' In the process the strategic role that Bangladesh will play for bridging the strategic gap for furthering the geo-political and socioeconomic activities between South and East Asia will also be highlighted.
Bangladesh-Foreign Relations: The constitution of Bangladesh embodies the basic principles of Foreign Policy. It says the state base its international relations on the principles of respect for national sovereignty, equality, non-interference in the-'internal affairs of other countries, peaceful settlement of international disputes and respect for international laws and principles as enunciated in the UN charter. Bangladesh pursues a forward looking foreign policy based on friendship with all and malice to none. As an active member of UN Bangladesh is the largest 'Peace Keeper' contributing nation, active member of OIC, member of the Commonwealth of nations, member of the non-aligned movement and the founder member of SAARC are to name a few. As a part of Bangladesh's strategic and geo-political imperative it started giving more importance towards establishing better relations with Asian nations. It became member of ARF in the 2006. Due to Bangladesh's initiative SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Authority) was signed. The scope for Bangladesh's economic cooperation with ASEAN countries got further boost through her membership of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi sectoral and technical and economic cooperation). In 1999 another economic forum of strategic importance amongst the countries of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) was floated.
A special feature of Bangladesh's foreign relation is its friendship with China. Almost all the governments since the birth of Bangladesh gave due importance to its relation with China. It is a new model in the sense that the Sino-Bangla amity is not designed as a traditional 'balance of power' counterpoise to India, unlike the Sino-Pak strategic relationship. Rather in this case Bangladesh can be seen as a conduit or bridge connecting China with India, the other rising power in Asia. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is also forging a very good relationship with its two neighbors namely India and Myanmar. Specially, India's North Eastern states and Myanmar's untapped and abundant natural resources in Chin and Arakan areas have so far been not fully utilised. This is one area where Bangladesh can help in generating economic momentum. Some critics say Bangladesh might have to walk on a tight strategic rope while forging parallel relation with China and India. Bangladesh's strategic position also made it imperative on her part to forge an excellent relation with the ASEAN community. The global economic downturn had a real bad impact on the global trade. Responsible governments can't remain oblivious to the risk of instability in this financial sector and Bangladesh too must be in position to adjust her economy to the need of the hour.
The relationship continued through all governments in Bangladesh. During the period of caretaker government (2007-8) of Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed, China made him a guest of honor at the Beijing Para-Olympics. During his 2008 visit, President Hu Jintao described bilateral relations being based on "Comprehensive Partners for Cooperation. But it is also noteworthy where Chinese redlines were concerned, China was unbending. For instance it would not allow Bangladesh's opening up with Taiwan, and reacted to one such effort, forcing Bangladesh to ultimately relent. China has emerged as Bangladesh's largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching US$ 4.58 billion in 2009 despite a 2.2 percent negative growth vis-à-vis 2008 when the volume was $4.8 billion, its trade deficit with China has also reached US$ 4.3 billion. This was mainly because of a drop in Chinese exports to Bangladesh in that year of recession. The comparatively much smaller Bangladesh exports to China actually increased 7% to US$ 141 million in 2009 from US$ 132 million in 2008. On the aid disbursement to date China has provided Bangladesh US$1.05 billion, of which US$ 978 million came as hard loans.
It was on such a matrix of bilateral relations, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, who had assumed the office in January 2009, visited China on 17-21 March 2010. She had already travelled to a warm reception in New Delhi earlier in January 2010, possibly indicating a higher pecking order for India in her calculations. Nonetheless, too much shouldn't be deduced from that 'since it was expected that Delhi would come with her list first and the timings were close enough to signal a wish for balance.
Dhaka also views relations with China as an important alliance in terms of linking a South Asian State with a global power in much the same way as India has been linked to the US strategically. Indeed a senior Awami League politician, Obaidul Quader, a member of the party's Presidium, said that he believed that 'a proactive and balanced diplomacy', like between Washington and New Delhi, could be established by the visit. Given regional and global sensivities, some sharp Bangladeshi analysts indicated weariness about emphasising too much upon a positive outcome: "We should be careful enough not to advertise more then our gain from the visit", noted a writer on Bangladesh's foreign affairs. A few days before the trip of Bangladesh PM's visit to China, China unilaterally gave duty free entry of 4700 items of Bangladeshi goods in the Chinese market. This trading opportunity only needs to be exploited by the Bangladeshi companies and the exporters to compensate for lack of export from Bangladesh to China.
The visit by the Bangladesh's PM has had some understanding of far reaching effect. The issue of Brahmaputra river when raised by Bangladesh PM, both sides, "discussed the need for regular exchange of information and consultation on the use of the water resources of river Yarluzangbu/ Brahmaputra to ensure sustainable and mutually beneficial cooperation in this regard." India too can take advantage of this effort of Bangladesh whereby the regular flow of information on the water discharge from various points of the Chinese side can be known. Another very interesting development during the visit was the discussion on the shapes of a potential new regional arrangement.
The statement read: "The two sides agreed to actively participate in and promote the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) regional economic cooperation process. The Daily Star in its editorial remarked: "That Dhaka and Beijing have agreed to carry the process forward only adds another dimension to bilateral relations as well as reshaping perspectives in the region."
Indeed such forum having China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar sit together and discuss political, economic and strategic issues would have great global ramifications. This would definitely have a great impact on the over all geo-political situation of the area. This perhaps will open a new horizon of cooperation and trust.
In another show of strategic foresight the Bangladeshi PM sought China's help in constructing a deep sea port in Chittagong area of Bangladesh. Just so that this is not misconstrued in any part of the so-called 'string of pearls concept' strategy that India holds with suspicion. Showing her pragmatism the Bangladesh PM invited India saying "China can benefit from using the deep seaport, while all neighboring countries can also use it. It may be mentioned that the 'Kunming Initiative' of 1999 included a proposal for road link between China and Bangladesh. Bangladesh's keenness in it lies in the fact that once it is established, Bangladesh would be connected to the ASEAN's lucrative market that would include such countries as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia.
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina during her Kunming visit sought to boost the ego of the Yunnan leaders by announcing at a banquet hosted by Li Jiang, the vice governor of Yunnan: "I believe the leaders of the Yunnan province can play an important role in establishing (regional) road and rail links." Following the footsteps of Bangladesh PM's visit, the Chinese reciprocated by sending their Vice President Xi Jinping. The visit indicates that the Chinese leadership puts a premium in further strengthening and diversifying relations with Bangladesh. Understandings on important matters were reached during the Chinese Vice President's visit. Chinese assistance for building a deep sea port and assistance for launching the first Bangladesh satellite topped the list. Beijing also gave a grant of 40 million RMB to Bangladesh. Agreement also called for quick disbursement of Chinese fund for a water treatment plant and a fertilizer factory. Chinese participation for building the contemplated deep sea port at Sonadia is of great importance for the Bangladesh economy.
Once implemented this deep sea port will serve as a communication hub of this area and act as a real bridge for South and East Asia. The immense economic potentialities of this deep seaport will usher in a new era of economic development for this part of the world. This will ultimately help materialise the vision of making Bangladesh a middle income country. It will help not only revolutionise the economic state of affairs of Bangladesh but also Myanmar, especially Chin and Arakan province, and economy of backward Indian North East states. As a priority to pursuing 'Look East Policy', India will have to put the economic activity of the NE states to the forefront of their strategic vision. Unless Bangladesh is taken into confidence through making of the deep seaport, the Indian vision will not find its much needed momentum. This would further help the Chinese make a short of using Malacca strait and increase economic activities of Yunnan State. As the economic activities of these countries speed up, the socioeconomic condition of the people will also be greatly improved. This will help the countries move away from historical distrust and forge unity and trust for more such economic activities of this area.
"The year 2010 marks the 35th anniversary of forging China-Bangladesh diplomatic ties, and the two nations have been cooperating fruitfully in all areas. With the establishment of Sino-Bangladesh Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation in 2005, a new chapter has opened up in bilateral friendship and cooperation." The stepped activities between Bangladesh and China have yet another strategic dimension. It will bring the two countries closer in different ways and should serve as a model of relations between a near super power and its smaller but constructively oriented neighbour. On his return visit the Chinese Vice President has stressed this factor of Bangladesh being good neighbour for its pacific intentions and also for playing by international norms and regulations and expressed that they were happy too having such a worthy neighbour.
Brig Gen Shah Muhammad Sultan Uddin Iqbal BP, ndu, psc (retd), is former chairman of SAARC Meteorological Centre (SMRC)
Bangladesh is a land of unique culture, rich history, and 160 million peace loving people comprising 88.5% Muslims, 10.2% Hindus, rest Buddhist, Christians and other religions. It lies at a strategic point of South and East Asia. This location gives Bangladesh a unique position to serve as bridge between East and South Asia. These potentialities of Bangladesh have, so far, remained in mire due to factors of which geo-political reasons and strategic economic planning stands out most. Bangladesh has overcome those aspects and now looks forward towards a bright future. Our today's leadership under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has embarked upon a great vision of steering the nation by making Bangladesh a middle income country by 2021. The World Bank in a rare support of this vision (including poverty reduction) has endorsed a US$ 6.0 billion credit as 'new country assistance strategy' for fiscal year 2011-2014. The IMF too, has endorsed its willingness to help Bangladesh develop energy and infrastructure. The assurance came after the director for IMF for Asia and Pacific met Bangladesh PM at her office on 7th September 2010. As such, it is necessary to explain in brief the economic and strategic steps that Bangladesh has taken following her foreign policy orientation of 'Looking East Policy.' In the process the strategic role that Bangladesh will play for bridging the strategic gap for furthering the geo-political and socioeconomic activities between South and East Asia will also be highlighted.
Bangladesh-Foreign Relations: The constitution of Bangladesh embodies the basic principles of Foreign Policy. It says the state base its international relations on the principles of respect for national sovereignty, equality, non-interference in the-'internal affairs of other countries, peaceful settlement of international disputes and respect for international laws and principles as enunciated in the UN charter. Bangladesh pursues a forward looking foreign policy based on friendship with all and malice to none. As an active member of UN Bangladesh is the largest 'Peace Keeper' contributing nation, active member of OIC, member of the Commonwealth of nations, member of the non-aligned movement and the founder member of SAARC are to name a few. As a part of Bangladesh's strategic and geo-political imperative it started giving more importance towards establishing better relations with Asian nations. It became member of ARF in the 2006. Due to Bangladesh's initiative SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Authority) was signed. The scope for Bangladesh's economic cooperation with ASEAN countries got further boost through her membership of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi sectoral and technical and economic cooperation). In 1999 another economic forum of strategic importance amongst the countries of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) was floated.
A special feature of Bangladesh's foreign relation is its friendship with China. Almost all the governments since the birth of Bangladesh gave due importance to its relation with China. It is a new model in the sense that the Sino-Bangla amity is not designed as a traditional 'balance of power' counterpoise to India, unlike the Sino-Pak strategic relationship. Rather in this case Bangladesh can be seen as a conduit or bridge connecting China with India, the other rising power in Asia. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is also forging a very good relationship with its two neighbors namely India and Myanmar. Specially, India's North Eastern states and Myanmar's untapped and abundant natural resources in Chin and Arakan areas have so far been not fully utilised. This is one area where Bangladesh can help in generating economic momentum. Some critics say Bangladesh might have to walk on a tight strategic rope while forging parallel relation with China and India. Bangladesh's strategic position also made it imperative on her part to forge an excellent relation with the ASEAN community. The global economic downturn had a real bad impact on the global trade. Responsible governments can't remain oblivious to the risk of instability in this financial sector and Bangladesh too must be in position to adjust her economy to the need of the hour.
The relationship continued through all governments in Bangladesh. During the period of caretaker government (2007-8) of Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed, China made him a guest of honor at the Beijing Para-Olympics. During his 2008 visit, President Hu Jintao described bilateral relations being based on "Comprehensive Partners for Cooperation. But it is also noteworthy where Chinese redlines were concerned, China was unbending. For instance it would not allow Bangladesh's opening up with Taiwan, and reacted to one such effort, forcing Bangladesh to ultimately relent. China has emerged as Bangladesh's largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching US$ 4.58 billion in 2009 despite a 2.2 percent negative growth vis-à-vis 2008 when the volume was $4.8 billion, its trade deficit with China has also reached US$ 4.3 billion. This was mainly because of a drop in Chinese exports to Bangladesh in that year of recession. The comparatively much smaller Bangladesh exports to China actually increased 7% to US$ 141 million in 2009 from US$ 132 million in 2008. On the aid disbursement to date China has provided Bangladesh US$1.05 billion, of which US$ 978 million came as hard loans.
It was on such a matrix of bilateral relations, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, who had assumed the office in January 2009, visited China on 17-21 March 2010. She had already travelled to a warm reception in New Delhi earlier in January 2010, possibly indicating a higher pecking order for India in her calculations. Nonetheless, too much shouldn't be deduced from that 'since it was expected that Delhi would come with her list first and the timings were close enough to signal a wish for balance.
Dhaka also views relations with China as an important alliance in terms of linking a South Asian State with a global power in much the same way as India has been linked to the US strategically. Indeed a senior Awami League politician, Obaidul Quader, a member of the party's Presidium, said that he believed that 'a proactive and balanced diplomacy', like between Washington and New Delhi, could be established by the visit. Given regional and global sensivities, some sharp Bangladeshi analysts indicated weariness about emphasising too much upon a positive outcome: "We should be careful enough not to advertise more then our gain from the visit", noted a writer on Bangladesh's foreign affairs. A few days before the trip of Bangladesh PM's visit to China, China unilaterally gave duty free entry of 4700 items of Bangladeshi goods in the Chinese market. This trading opportunity only needs to be exploited by the Bangladeshi companies and the exporters to compensate for lack of export from Bangladesh to China.
The visit by the Bangladesh's PM has had some understanding of far reaching effect. The issue of Brahmaputra river when raised by Bangladesh PM, both sides, "discussed the need for regular exchange of information and consultation on the use of the water resources of river Yarluzangbu/ Brahmaputra to ensure sustainable and mutually beneficial cooperation in this regard." India too can take advantage of this effort of Bangladesh whereby the regular flow of information on the water discharge from various points of the Chinese side can be known. Another very interesting development during the visit was the discussion on the shapes of a potential new regional arrangement.
The statement read: "The two sides agreed to actively participate in and promote the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) regional economic cooperation process. The Daily Star in its editorial remarked: "That Dhaka and Beijing have agreed to carry the process forward only adds another dimension to bilateral relations as well as reshaping perspectives in the region."
Indeed such forum having China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar sit together and discuss political, economic and strategic issues would have great global ramifications. This would definitely have a great impact on the over all geo-political situation of the area. This perhaps will open a new horizon of cooperation and trust.
In another show of strategic foresight the Bangladeshi PM sought China's help in constructing a deep sea port in Chittagong area of Bangladesh. Just so that this is not misconstrued in any part of the so-called 'string of pearls concept' strategy that India holds with suspicion. Showing her pragmatism the Bangladesh PM invited India saying "China can benefit from using the deep seaport, while all neighboring countries can also use it. It may be mentioned that the 'Kunming Initiative' of 1999 included a proposal for road link between China and Bangladesh. Bangladesh's keenness in it lies in the fact that once it is established, Bangladesh would be connected to the ASEAN's lucrative market that would include such countries as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia.
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina during her Kunming visit sought to boost the ego of the Yunnan leaders by announcing at a banquet hosted by Li Jiang, the vice governor of Yunnan: "I believe the leaders of the Yunnan province can play an important role in establishing (regional) road and rail links." Following the footsteps of Bangladesh PM's visit, the Chinese reciprocated by sending their Vice President Xi Jinping. The visit indicates that the Chinese leadership puts a premium in further strengthening and diversifying relations with Bangladesh. Understandings on important matters were reached during the Chinese Vice President's visit. Chinese assistance for building a deep sea port and assistance for launching the first Bangladesh satellite topped the list. Beijing also gave a grant of 40 million RMB to Bangladesh. Agreement also called for quick disbursement of Chinese fund for a water treatment plant and a fertilizer factory. Chinese participation for building the contemplated deep sea port at Sonadia is of great importance for the Bangladesh economy.
Once implemented this deep sea port will serve as a communication hub of this area and act as a real bridge for South and East Asia. The immense economic potentialities of this deep seaport will usher in a new era of economic development for this part of the world. This will ultimately help materialise the vision of making Bangladesh a middle income country. It will help not only revolutionise the economic state of affairs of Bangladesh but also Myanmar, especially Chin and Arakan province, and economy of backward Indian North East states. As a priority to pursuing 'Look East Policy', India will have to put the economic activity of the NE states to the forefront of their strategic vision. Unless Bangladesh is taken into confidence through making of the deep seaport, the Indian vision will not find its much needed momentum. This would further help the Chinese make a short of using Malacca strait and increase economic activities of Yunnan State. As the economic activities of these countries speed up, the socioeconomic condition of the people will also be greatly improved. This will help the countries move away from historical distrust and forge unity and trust for more such economic activities of this area.
"The year 2010 marks the 35th anniversary of forging China-Bangladesh diplomatic ties, and the two nations have been cooperating fruitfully in all areas. With the establishment of Sino-Bangladesh Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation in 2005, a new chapter has opened up in bilateral friendship and cooperation." The stepped activities between Bangladesh and China have yet another strategic dimension. It will bring the two countries closer in different ways and should serve as a model of relations between a near super power and its smaller but constructively oriented neighbour. On his return visit the Chinese Vice President has stressed this factor of Bangladesh being good neighbour for its pacific intentions and also for playing by international norms and regulations and expressed that they were happy too having such a worthy neighbour.
Brig Gen Shah Muhammad Sultan Uddin Iqbal BP, ndu, psc (retd), is former chairman of SAARC Meteorological Centre (SMRC)