Maduro's challenger has wide lead over him in polls

CARACAS, July 28 (AFP/BBC): Venezuelans vote Sunday between continuity in President Nicolas Maduro or change in rival Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia amid high tension following the incumbent's threat of a "bloodbath" if he loses, which polls suggest is likely.
Concerns were further stoked when Caracas blocked several international observers at the last minute, including four ex-presidents who had their plane held up in Panama Friday.
Maduro, 61, is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism.
He is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the once wealthy petro-state that saw GDP drop 80 percent in a decade, pushing more than seven million of its 30 million citizens to emigrate.
His main challenger is Edmundo González, a former diplomat who has the backing of a coalition of opposition parties.
Polls suggest Mr González has a wide lead over the incumbent, but as Mr Maduro's 2018 re-election was widely dismissed as neither free nor fair, there are fears that the result of this election could be tampered with, should it not go Mr Maduro's way.
Relying on its own figures, the regime is also said to be certain of victory.
"They will probably steal the election," 35-year-old opposition voter Marianella told AFP in Caracas, withholding her surname for fear of retribution against her children and small business.
"It's the only way they can win."
Indeed, polls suggest Sunday's vote poses the biggest threat yet to 25 years of "Chavismo," the populist movement founded by Maduro's predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez.
But analysts told AFP the president is unlikely to concede defeat, especially in the absence of immunity guarantees, with his government under investigation for human rights abuses by the International Criminal Court.
Days before the vote, Maduro said the outcome would decide whether Venezuela enters a period of "peace or war."
"If they do not want Venezuela to become a bloodbath, a fratricidal civil war produced by the fascists, let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest electoral victory of our people," he said at a rally.
The comments drew condemnation from leaders including Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who said: "Maduro has to learn: if you win, you stay. If you lose, you go."
Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat, is running in the place of wildly popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, barred from the race by institutions loyal to Maduro.
Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, spoke to Machado on Saturday, writing on X afterwards: "We are on the side of democracy. The world is watching these elections."
On Friday, a Venezuelan NGO said the regime was holding 305 "political prisoners" and had arrested 135 people with links to the opposition campaign since January.