Measles outbreak likely to subside in late May

Health experts and officials have predicted a decline in the intense measles outbreak after May 20 as the virus claimed the lives of nine more children on Tuesday.
They have made the prediction as the primary target of vaccinating 18 million children by May 20 has been achieved.
Immunity has developed among the children who have taken vaccines and are cured from measles, according to them.
The health experts, however, said tackling fatalities due to measles still remains a challenge as so many children who have been infected with the virus are facing other health complications, including malnutrition.
"It takes two week to develop immunity after vaccination. Furthermore, those who recovered from measles infection also develop immunity. Therefore, herd immunity can be developed after four weeks if all the children under the coverage range of age get vaccines," Prof Dr Mozaherul Haque, public health expert and former WHO Southeast Asia regional adviser told the FE.
He suggested developing a "strategic planning" to ensure vaccination in all the affected areas and creating a mass awareness so that no children remain unvaccinated.
Vaccinating all the children in the affected regions at a time is crucial, they said. The immunity depends on the success of vaccination, they added.
Earlier on April 5, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare launched an emergency measles-rubella vaccination campaign, targeting children aged 6 months to 5 years, regardless of prior vaccination status.
The health authorities already vaccinated over 18.04 million doses against the target of 18.01 million doses.
This year the authorities get less time to prepare the data of how many children are there in the country for the coverage.
The health ministry is reviewing the situation and will keep the immunisation programme on across the country as more children are coming to be vaccinated, said officials.
Additional Director General (administration) at Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Prof Dr Zahid Raihan told the FE that the measles infection is not spreading further and the number of the virus cases remain stable.
He expressed the hope that that infection rate would start declining  before May 20 and significantly lessen in late May. And, once infection is slowed down, the fatalities can also be tackled, he added.
According to officials, authorities will review the vaccination coverage after the first phase of the two doses of measles vaccine and also check how many children have been left in the first phase
Epidemiologist Dr. Mushtaq Hussain told the FE that the rate of measles infection has slowed down slightly already and infection reduction would be visible from late May and June.
To address the challenge of mortality, the former advisor to the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) suggested reforms in the 'faulty healthcare system and strengthening the primary healthcare system.
The malnourished children need immediate food and care through establishing field hospitals in rural areas, he added.
"There are multiple services under different government agencies. So, sometimes incidents of overlapping occur, slowing down the health service. After the crisis is over, we will reorganize the service to speed up the government health service in rural areas," said the DGHS additional director general.
Meanwhile, nine children died of measles and measles-like symptoms in the past 24 hours until Tuesday 8:0am.
With the latest daily count, the total casualties due to the virus reached 424 since mid March this year, said health authorities. Of the total fatalities, 68 were confirmed measles cases, according to the DGHS bulletin.
Over 1,195 more infections were recorded in the past 24 hours. The total infections rose to over 58,500.
Measles is a highly contagious viral disease, which affects individuals of all ages and remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally.
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