Middle East peace process: All is not lost

The latest round of US-brokered peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators suddenly came to a grinding halt -- not unexpected, but unfortunate. After years of incongruent meetings, such an end was not inconceivable. This time the negotiations plunged into crisis as Israel did not release about two dozen Palestinian prisoners as it committed to do before negotiations resumed in July. Besides, Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas's application to join 15 UN treaties and conventions, and the Israeli government's approval of the construction of 700 homes in east Jerusalem, were two other stumbling blocks. Israel claims East Jerusalem as part of its capital city while Palestine considers it as its future capital.
US Secretary of State John Kerry placed most of the blame for the deterioration in the Middle East peace process on Israel. Israel responded by dismissing Mr Kerry's allegation as 'biased at best, and anti-Semitic at worst'. They, however, say that Mahmoud Abbas was the one responsible for the current impasse. According to them, Abbas was looking for a way to "escape" negotiations that he never wanted.
The US Secretary of State is also being criticised in the western world for his inept conduct of the negotiations by publicly putting unrelenting pressure on Israel for concessions while accommodating Palestinian demands. The State Department in trying to soften the impression that Kerry was blaming Israel mostly, stressed that negotiations broke down because both sides had taken 'unhelpful' steps, and at no point he had engaged in a blame game.
The State Department insisted that Mr Kerry also criticised the Palestinian authority for applying to join 15 international treaties and conventions, a move toward recognition of Palestinian statehood outside the peace process, which the United States staunchly opposes.  
Defending their decision, the Israeli government said, they did not release the final group of prisoners because the Palestinian authority demanded that several other Arab citizens of Israel be included in the group. Senior Palestinian officials said, the prisoner release was part of a separate deal and not contingent upon an extension of negotiations. They said they waited for days after the March 29 deadline for the release, but nothing happened.
While Mr Kerry said both sides bore responsibility for "unhelpful" actions, the precipitating event was Israel's announcement for construction of contentious new housing for Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem. That came three days after a deadline expired for Israel to release Palestinian prisoners.
In spite of the debacle, Mr Kerry, appears determined to keep the process alive. Even now, if the two sides can get past the dispute over the Israeli prisoner release, he said, there can be substantive results in the negotiations for a peace accord.
The situation is actually the same, if not as bad, as the situation in 1990, when James Baker, the then US Secretary of State got frustrated after his own diplomatic efforts failed to bear tangible results. Baker then observed that if Israel's right-wing government did not ease its conditions for talks with the Palestinians, there would be no progress.  
It is alleged that delay has been a tactic used by Israel to keep encroaching further and further into the west bank. Now the housing issue has aroused controversy in Israel itself. Tzipi Livni, the justice minister and the government's chief negotiator with the Palestinians, said she believed that Uri Ariel, the housing minister, had acted deliberately to sabotage the peace effort.
While the details of the negotiations have been kept secret at Mr Kerry's insistence, it is quite clear that little progress appeared to have been made. In contrast to the near optimism expressed by Mr Kerry, the American think-tank has a different view. They hold Palestinians responsible for repeated failure of peace talks. A part of the group is of the view that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas torpedoed the latest round of peace talks by an eleventh-hour escalation of demands. Israel also expressed its deep anguish and disappointment by saying that Mr Abbas's demands and timing were so outrageous that Israeli negotiator Tzipi Livni, who is widely known for her alacrity to embrace Palestinian demands, also expressed her dismay by warning that if Abbas can take unilateral action in disregard of prior agreements, so too will Israel.
Although the latest negotiations failed to produce any tangible result, both sides agreed to continue the talks, as US State Department puts it "Gaps remain, but both sides are committed to narrow the gaps."
Signing 15 global treaties by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas surprised Washington and angered Israel. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, Abbas would have to reverse that step in order for the prisoner release to be re-addressed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened unspecified retaliation in response to what Israel views as a unilateral statehood move by Abbas.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki responded by saying that they would appeal at the next Arab League meeting in Cairo for political and economic support in the event of Israeli punitive measures. Palestine's UN ambassador Riyad Mansour told a UN Committee that the Palestinians were prepared to join more international groups if Israel wants to escalate further and try to illegally punish them for doing something legal. As a UN non-member state, Palestinians can join 63 international agencies and accords.
As a matter of fact, expectations among the Israeli and Palestinian public of a peace deal have been low from the start. The talks have stalled over Palestinian opposition to Israel's demand that it be recognised as a Jewish state, and over settlements built on occupied land Palestinians seek for a country of their own. Israel has described those West Bank borders as indefensible and considers East Jerusalem as part of its capital, a claim not recognised internationally. Palestinians fear, settlements, viewed as illegal by most countries, will deny them a viable state.
Mr Kerry is being criticised in the western world but he appears to genuinely believe that peace is possible.
Political problems are not like linear algebra. There is not always a solution. Sometimes the status quo, however awful it may be, is preferable to both sides than the conceivable outcome that would result in a deal.
Arguably, some progress, although infinitesimal, has been achieved in the Middle East peace process and things have started to look up. The widespread perception that US have been brokering series of negotiations only to give more to Israel and less to Palestine, is softening. It can be argued that, things now appear to be more in favour of Palestine than Israel. America, in reality, no longer has a strong interest in the Middle East, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is merely a sideshow among more important world problems.
Historically, the American  interest in the Middle East has basically revolved around oil which is now fading. America's attitude towards the Palestinians, vis-a-vis the Middle East, is changing. Furthermore, Israel appears to be less intransigent and less inflexible than before. More importantly, all parties agreed to continue the talks. So, all is not lost. And it will not be wild and incongruous to hope that in spite of all the misfires, the Middle East peace process with its own strength is inching towards its desired finish.
The writer is a broadcaster and a free-lance journalist.
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