Migration issue in North Africa, politics in Algeria

Walid Ellafi, President of Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum has recently highlighted an important dimension that has been the focal point of attention pertaining to North Africa. In this context the leadership within this region has been trying to create a comprehensive approach aimed at solving this continuing test.
Irregular migration over the last decade has remained as one of the most formidable challenges confronting even the most advanced and powerful nations globally. Despite ongoing international initiatives, substantial resources dedicated to addressing this issue, and significant advancements in technology designed to combat migration, this process has continued relentlessly. Statistics have also indicated a significant surge in levels of irregular migration over the past decade, despite considerable technological progress and a robust political will to tackle this phenomenon.
At its core, migration has become an important human condition. It, in more ways than one, has become a natural response to the pursuit of a better life, stability, and happiness. Migrants consequently are not afraid to undertake perilous journeys in search of a distinguished existence. Waves of migration also represent a natural phenomenon akin to osmosis, where groups of people flow from one area to another until symmetry is reached.
Analysts within North African countries are beginning to view the migration issue from this perspective. They have identified that greater balance within the social matrix is key to finding the correct methodology. Balance, opportunities, and happiness have been identified as the pivotal terms in this matter. Consequently, it is being understood that the broader context within which this phenomenon is occurring needs to be better understood to avoid limited results.
In the contemporary context this issue is gaining momentum. Today, it is also assuming substantial momentum amidst major geopolitical shifts, economic challenges, and the consequences of climate variability worldwide. Migration has also become a central issue in the European political landscape and in bilateral relations between international entities.
As a result of this evolving international scenario it is generally agreed that partial approaches to the migration issue are no longer viable solutions. This has now become the premise of the Mediterranean Migration Forum (TMMF) initiative, which aims to create a strategic framework for dialogue and cooperation between Europe and Africa to comprehensively address this issue.
The initiative is based on the necessity of acknowledging past mistakes, approaching the matter with contemporary tools and methodologies, and addressing the major aspects surrounding this issue in African-European relations on political, economic, and security levels, thereby addressing this issue more intensely and precisely.
One of the two main tracks of the Forum, involving Heads of Governments, addresses the issue at a strategic level, and is trying to formulate a unified vision and policies, develop the foundations of African-European relations based on mutual respect and shared interests, and plan rapid humanitarian response policies that ensure the rights and safety of migrants. The second track, involving Interior Ministers and security officials, is trying to address files of security cooperation and the exchange of expertise and information, making it a multi-dimensional approach (geopolitical, security, humanitarian).
The necessity of such an initiative becomes evident when examining the statistics and trends related to irregular migration.
According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the number of irregular migrants crossing the European Union's borders rose to over 330,000 in 2022, a 64 per cent increase from 2021. A significant proportion undertook dangerous and deadly journeys across the Mediterranean Sea. Reports from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) also indicated that thousands of migrants have perished attempting to cross the Mediterranean, underscoring the urgent need for a comprehensive and humane response.
The economic impact of irregular migration has also been termed by analysts as profound. For destination countries in Europe, it also presents challenges related to integration, labour markets, and social cohesion. For African countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, the loss of youth and skilled individuals is also hampering development. Transit countries, often lacking the resources and infrastructure to handle large migrant flows, face significant humanitarian and security challenges.
These dimensions have led analysts to observe that root causes need to be addressed through sustainable development, improving governance, and enhancing cooperation. It has also been suggested that investing in economic opportunities, education, and healthcare in source countries might be able to reduce the push factors driving irregular migration. Additionally, strengthening legal migration pathways and enhancing transit countries' capacity to manage migrant flows humanely will have to be essential mechanisms of this policy.
Walid Ellafi has consequently noted that "we need a forward-looking approach to one of the most pressing issues of our time. By adopting a comprehensive strategy, we can address the complex dynamics of irregular migration. This initiative is not merely about managing migration flows; it aims to create a future where opportunities and stability are accessible to all, thereby reducing the necessity for perilous journeys across the Mediterranean". However, it is also realised that the success of such an effort will greatly depend on collective commitment to cooperation, mutual respect, and shared responsibility.
Algeria politics : In a different development, the gas-rich North African country Algeria has seen its President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, a 78-year-old political veteran, announcing recently that he has intention to seek a second term in Office, five years after ascending to power as the military and establishment-backed candidate during widespread pro-democracy protests. He is now seeking support from political parties and young people. He has also observed that "If the Algerian people want to vote for me, that's fine, otherwise I'll have accomplished my mission and whoever succeeds me will be welcome." It may be noted that Tebboune had avoided declaring his intentions even after setting the September 7 election date almost four months ago.
Tebboune's announcement came a day after he visited Kabylia, a mountainous region east of Algiers known as an epicenter of anti-government sentiment. It may be mentioned in this context that several members of the Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylia are behind bars. While there, Tebboune inaugurated a new stadium and announced a planned 500-bed hospital and desalination plant for the region.
This has added another evolving dimension in the North African political paradigm. Besides Tebboune, 34 candidates have announced plans to run in the election. However, only three so far have gathered the number of signatures necessary to appear on the ballot - at least 50,000 in half of the country's 58 regions. The three are: Youcef Aouchiche of the Socialist Forces Front, Algeria's largest opposition party; Abdellah Hassan Cherif of the Islamist party Movement for Society and Peace; and Sadia Naghzi of the General Confederation of Algerian Enterprises.
North African geostrategists are already pointing out that a second Tebboune term would entrench the power of Algeria's political and military elite and further distance the country from the aspirations voiced by its "Hirak" movement, which held weekly street protests that pressured the country's ailing octogenarian president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, to resign in April 2019, after two decades in Office.
Tebboune, a former Prime Minister under Bouteflika, emerged the victor in an election with a low turnout election in 2019. Protesters boycotted it and decried it as a rushed affair designed to maintain the old regime's grip on power over the nation with a population of 45 million.
Nevertheless, it needs to be remembered that after initially releasing some jailed protesters and journalists, Tebboune launched a campaign to bring stability and fight corruption, tightening his grip on power in the process. Analysts have, however, observed that political activity has diminished since then and some media outlets have been losing state advertising funding that they had been relying on to stay afloat.
Nevertheless, Tebboune has already pledged to diversify Algeria's gas-reliant economy to enhance its exports to Europe - particularly as the war in Ukraine has increased demand for non-Russian fuel. However, at the same time it has been pointed out by a few that though Algeria's gas reserves make it richer than its neighbours by most metrics, it has been plagued by occasional shortages of necessities like cooking oil.
One needs to conclude that within this dimension of seeking another term in Office, Tebboune has already also drawn attention by denouncing Israel's actions throughout the nine months of the Israel- Hamas war and also maintaining friendly ties with Russia, China and Turkey as well as European nations like France and Italy. One needs to remember that despite the legacy of its colonial past, Algeria also has close ties with France-- politically and economically.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialsed in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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