Moderate to severe flood likely next month

Experts expect a moderate to severe flood to engulf major parts of the country next month as major rivers are now in full spate due to onrush of waters coming from the hilly regions of neighbouring India, coupled with torrential rains for the last few weeks.
They said the possible flood, which already submerged several areas in south and northeastern districts, could cause a big blow to the emerging economy by rendering thousands of families homeless and causing damage to standing crops, vegetables and livestock.
They also suggested the government to take necessary preparations to minimise the damage to be caused by the natural disaster, especially to croplands.
However, a number of areas in Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Bandarban, Feni, Sylhet, Jessore and Moulvibazar districts were already inundated in the last few days. The situation has been worsening fast as all the rivers there are flowing over the danger level.
Official data revealed that eight rivers in ten places were flowing over the danger mark causing flood in parts of Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Bandarban, Feni, Sylhet, Jessore, Moulvibazar districts.
Another four rivers including Kushiyara, Surma, Lakhya and Teesta were flowing near the danger mark in Moulvibazar, Sylhet Sadar, Gazipur and Nilphamari districts respectively threatening to trigger a flood, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) under the Water Development Board (BWDB) data revealed.    
Sangu and Matamuhuri, Muhuri and Kahua rivers in Chittagong, Bandarban, Cox's Bazar and Feni districts were flowing 55 cm to 98 cm above the danger level in many places while the Halda River at Fatikchhari in Chittagong was flowing 40 cm above the danger mark.
The river Kobadak surpassed the danger mark by 53 cm at Gadkhali under Jhikargacha upazila in Jessore causing inundation of nearly 1,000 hectares of Aman lands and 200 hectares of flower gardens.
Water of Surma and Kushiyara rivers in parts of Sylhet, and Moulvibazar districts entered the localities as the rivers crossed the danger level by 69-70 cm in last two days, according to the data.
Bandarban was witnessing the worst condition. The Sadar upazila was disconnected from the rest of the upazila, Cox's Bazar and Chittagong districts, the Additional Deputy Commissioner (ADC) of the hill district said.
Talking to the FE, ADC of the Bandarban district Md Abu Zafar said a total of 5,000 families were marooned across the district of which 1,000 were in Ali Kadam upazila and 500 in Sadar.
Some 250-300 hectares of Aman and Aus crop fields in Ali Kadam upazila have been badly affected by flood water, he said, adding that the flood has also hit a vast area under ginger cultivation in the district.
"About 35 tonnes of rice and Tk 70,000 in cash have been distributed among flood-affected people in the district so far," he said.
Officials at the Department of Agriculture Extension of Feni district said 1,500 hectares of Aus crops and Aman seedbeds have been inundated while another 50 hectares of vegetable lands have severely been affected by flood water.
Executive engineer of BWDB, Feni Ramjan Ali Pramanik said water in Muhuri and Kahua rivers were flowing 30-35 cm above danger mark in the district.
He said the embankment in Muhuri and Kahua rivers has been damaged in five places by flood and water entered Fulgazi, Daganbhuyia and Feni sadar through the breaches of the dam.
Upazila NIrbahi Officer (UNO) at Chandnaish upazila in Chittagong Sanzida Sharmin told the FE that nine unions including the municipality area have gone under water.
Some 500 hectares of vegetable fields, especially at Dohazari area, have been affected while 15,000 families were marooned in the upazila, she said, adding Tk 0.23 million and 4 tonnes of rice were distributed among them so far.
Sub-divisional engineer at FFWC Md Arifuzzman told the FE that the July-August period is crucial as the situation in this period of time gives an indication as to whether flood will occur or not.
"Water level in Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers has already increased. If Ganges-Padma water flows are added to it, it might cause a moderate to severe flood. The Ganges-Padma water is increasing fast for the last several days," he said.
"Adding to the flash flood, incessant rain is forcing us to predict a flood in the country in next few weeks," he added.
Director of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) Shah Alam said most of the country have been experiencing drizzle and moderate rain from Thursday, but it may rain heavily afterwards.
The weatherman said the country experienced moderate to heavy rainfall by the end of Bangla month Ashar and the beginning of Shraban. "If the current spell of rain continues for a few more days in both neighbouring Indian states and Bangladesh, more and more areas would be engulfed by flood waters," he said.
Former director general of Water Resources Planning Organisation (WARPO) M Enamul Hoque said flood in Bangladesh mainly depends on the flow of common rivers with India.
Several districts like Birbhum, Murshidabad, and Hooghly, Midnapore, Nadia, and 24 Parganas districts in West Bengal in India are facing flood now.
Following flood, the West Bengal authority has opened Tilpara, Baidhra, and Deocha barrages, which would increase water flow to Ganges-Padma, he said.
The water management expert said if the rainfall continues, many gates of the Farakka Barrage will also be opened and Bangladesh will face a devastating flood.
He said all the relevant ministries and agencies will have to take preparations from now on to mitigate ravages of any possible floods that might wash away many positive achievements of the country.
When contacted, Additional Secretary to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief Md. Shohid Ulla Mia said an action plan over the possible threats of flood has been taken. It has been sent even to the union level.
He said there will be no problem in terms of relief as the government has already enhanced fiscal allocation for the ministry in the ongoing fiscal year (FY'16).
According to the budget for the FY'16, a sum of Tk 74.40 billion has allocated to the ministry which is Tk 5.83 billion higher than the revised budget of the previous FY 2014-15.  
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