Modern agriculture: Farmers under pressure

Food security is one of the important areas which calls for immediate attention, especially in the background of globalisation.
The agricultural sector contributes about 18 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India, 5.5 per cent in Brazil and 3.0 per cent in South Africa. Consistent with the theory of economic development, share of agriculture in GDP has been declining in these countries. Agriculture remains an economic sector from the perspective of employment especially in economies like India. About 52 per cent of the total population in India, 14 per cent in Brazil and 13 per cent in South Africa depends on agriculture for their livelihood. The per capita arable land per agricultural person is the lowest (0.28ha) in India, followed by Brazil (2.2ha) and South Africa (2.5ha). In Brazil about 50 per cent of farms are of less than 10ha in size (as against average farm size of 68ha) sharing about 3 per cent of the total land. On the other hand, in India farms of above 10 ha are rare. Over 86 per cent of the farms in India are of less than 2.0 ha in size, controlling 45 per cent of the land.
Also, there is considerable difference in per capita income across these countries. Per capita income in South Africa is about three times more and in Brazil about two times more than in India. The head-count poverty is about 22 per cent of the population in India and Brazil, and around 40 per cent in South Africa. So the importance of this sector is well understood.
However, major concerns have centred on food insecurity in the presence of trade surpluses. And also there is the question of how to sustain agricultural growth and employment in populous rural communities.
If the recent trends are any indication, growth in cereal yields is slowing down in both the developed and the developing countries and is projected to further slow down in the coming decades. The net cereal imports by the developing countries are forecast to be almost double by 2020, with maximum absolute increase expected in east Asia and the largest relative increase in south Asia. This intensifies the doubt about food autarchy of India.
Not only for India but also for every nation, adequate production and distribution of food and attaining self-sufficiency in food production have become the priorities. The concern was spelt out by the FAO at its World Food Summit held in Rome as far back in 1996. The heads of different nations reaffirmed "the right of everyone to have access to safe and nutritious food, consistent with the right to adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free of hunger".  As per the Rome Declaration, "Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". Moreover, there was a pledge of political will and commitments to eradicate hunger in all countries with an immediate view to bringing down the number of undernourished people to half by not later than 2015.
Even a recent estimate made by the FAO, shows that around 826 million people in the developing world do not have enough to eat and a fifth of the world's population representing almost all these people, live in absolute poverty on less than US $1.0 per day. What is more alarming to note here is that almost 300 million of these people live in India alone.  That is to say: nearly half of the world's poor, who would not get two square meals a day, are in India.
Side be side, market liberalisation and globalisation have led to significant changes in agriculture and agri-food markets in developing countries, including India, Brazil and South Africa where the food basket is changing rapidly (away from staple food grains towards high-value fresh and food commodities with increasing demand for safe and quality food). In response, the agricultural production portfolio also has to change rapidly - a higher growth in production of high-value processed food products. The changing consumption and production patterns are to be accompanied by changes in agricultural marketing systems too since the traditional marketing systems (dominated by ad hoc transactions and middlemen) are being steadily replaced by coordinated, integrated marketing systems (viz. supermarkets, retail chains and contract production). Added to this, with the unfolding of globalisation, a major shift is to be there in the arena of agricultural exports, with increasing share of high-value and processed food products.
It has rightly been viewed that though expanding market is an opportunity for farmers to switch from subsistence towards commercial/industrialised agriculture, the transition is unlikely to be smooth. Increasing demand for food safety and quality is compelling retailers and exporters to enforce grades and standards right from genetics to end users. Farmers will be exposed to more global competition. Access to global technology will be more difficult than in the past because of increasing privatisation of agricultural research and stringent intellectual property regime. The population in developing countries continues to grow, though at a decelerating rate. Most of this growth will occur in urban population, implying an increasing demand for land and water for non-agricultural uses.
The changing economic environment - driven by both internal and external forces - shows and indicates that the agricultural sector in developing countries is very likely to come under significant adjustment pressure. In a fast changing scenario, there is an increasing concern about the likely changes in the livelihoods of farmers, especially small-scale farmers, who earn their livelihoods by cultivating tiny pieces of land.
It is high time to  examine i) the status, past trends and the factors underlying the growth of agriculture including  livestock, ii) map possible future for agriculture through regional scenario analysis in terms of its likely outcomes for poverty, equity, trade and sustainability, iii) draw implications of the possible future of agricultural research and development, domestic market and trade policies, institutional developments, etc. At the same time, the areas of mutual cooperation for sustainable agricultural development in developing countries need to be identified.
The strategies for enhancing human resource capabilities among these countries should get priority attention in as much as these countries have developed capabilities in different fields of agriculture and as such the exchange of their expertise and experiences will help achieve sustainable agricultural development in these countries.
Strategic intervention for improving efficiency, equity and sustainability in agricultural production systems needs a holistic approach considering agriculture as a portfolio rather than its sub-components or activities independently. This approach, coupled with some assessment of the major driving forces and anticipated changes, e.g. increasing energy demand and water scarcity, and underlying uncertainties like climate change and impact of international trade and other agreements, will determine the likely shape of agriculture in future.
The global demand for agricultural products is expected to remain firm although expanding at slower rates compared to the past decade. Cereals are still at the core of human diets, but growing incomes, urbanisation and changes in eating habits, contribute to the transition of diets that are richer in protein, fats and sugar.

Dr. B K Mukhopadhyay is a Management Economist.
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