Musharraf's uncertain future
Friday, 3 August 2007
Syed Ishtiaque Reza
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is perhaps passing the most critical time of his life. In his book "In the Line of Fire" Musharraf wrote that time and again he survived attempts on his life. He could dodge a lot of bullets over the years.
He himself said that it was more difficult to manage intense U.S. pressure to drive jihadis from the country's northwest frontier no-man's land than facing the bullets of militants. Yet he did it. He fought relentlessly against the Islamic militants. And the Pakistan's feudalistic society termed him an American puppet.
Musharraf started his days in the power quite smartly sending two former prime ministers - Benazir Bhutto and Newaj Sharif - out of the country. But now many of his decisions are creating large controversies.
His bid to sack the country's chief justice has provoked outrage, deadly violence and the first large-scale public protests of his nearly eight-year rule. Musharraf was defeated by the court and the chief justice was reinstated.
Incidentally, this is the election year in Pakistan. Musharraf's plan is clear. He wants to extend his presidency for another five years and maintain his position as the army chief as well.
His core political support comes from a coalition that includes the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), a party he invented following the 1999 coup through which he came to power, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), an ethnically based party blamed for provoking political violence around the country.
The list of his enemies is growing. It includes not only exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who hopes to return to Pakistan to contest national and state assembly elections this winter. Islamic radicals charge that his army has killed Pakistani tribesmen sympathetic to Afghanistan's Talibans to appease American crusaders and that he has broken promises to serve as a civilian president. Secular middle-class professionals are fed up with his broken promises about full democracy, and allies within the military elite fear they will share the blame for his missteps.
Musharraf has survived tough challenges before, and he had confidence that it won't be so easy to drive him out from power. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won parliamentary elections five years ago. But Musharraf managed to exclude the PPP from government by persuading some of its members to defect to his coalition and by forging a political deal with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a loose alliance of six conservative religious parties that hope to one day bring theocracy to Pakistan.
But even a political tacticion as skilled as Musharraf may not survive the current crisis indefinitely. Recent polling suggests Bhutto's party remains popular, and the president's former Islamist allies have almost entirely abandoned him, mainly over his support for the U.S.-led war on terror.
Still, Musharraf shows no sign of retreat. Under the current constitution, Pakistan's president is elected by four provincial assemblies and the parliament. Knowing that the next parliament will contain fewer of his loyalists than the current one, Musharraf intends to seek re-election before the next parliamentary elections reshuffle the political deck. He also hopes to extend the life of a constitutional amendment, due to lapse this year, which allows him to remain chief of the army.
Musharraf perhaps never thought that any of his decision could be defied. But that was done by Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the country's chief justice who offered no promises to rule in the president's favour. The judge has refused to go quietly. Chaudhry's criticism of the president has won him admirers all over Pakistan, encouraging him to tour the countryside, whipping up anti-Musharraf fervour as he lectures on the importance of an independent judiciary.
When Musharraf was already defeated by the chief justice, the militants went for a direct fight with the soldiers at the Red Mosque. The bloody end of the Red Mosque crisis fuelled violance across the country. Many analysts see Pakistan as a place where killing of people has become very normal.
Pervez Musharraf's resume has its successes. His support for talented technocrats and their liberal economic reforms has earned him accolades both at home and abroad. Strong growth rates, his tolerance for a relatively free press, and the stability that comes with some $10 billion in U.S. aid since 9/11 may not guarantee his political survival -- particularly since corruption, inflation, high crime rates and rural poverty continue to burden Pakistan's development.
In fact, Musharraf receives the support from Washington, where he is regarded as a crucial ally on the frontline of the war on terror. The political cost of that choice is on the rise. But the US support also seems not strong at the moment. The White House has asked Pakistan to do more to defeat terrorist forces on its soil, repeating its warning that Washington may launch a military strike against Al Qaeda "safe haven" in its tribal region. The US warning threw Musharraf into further difficulty. When the home situation is volatile, the outside world is becoming critical to him.
Musharraf is likely to lose his grip on power in the coming days. Both Musharraf and Pakistan are in for a lot of uncertainty, and the country's longer-term economic and security outlook is becoming increasingly hazy and difficult to forecast. Across the globe all eyes are on Musharraf - to see how he would survive.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is perhaps passing the most critical time of his life. In his book "In the Line of Fire" Musharraf wrote that time and again he survived attempts on his life. He could dodge a lot of bullets over the years.
He himself said that it was more difficult to manage intense U.S. pressure to drive jihadis from the country's northwest frontier no-man's land than facing the bullets of militants. Yet he did it. He fought relentlessly against the Islamic militants. And the Pakistan's feudalistic society termed him an American puppet.
Musharraf started his days in the power quite smartly sending two former prime ministers - Benazir Bhutto and Newaj Sharif - out of the country. But now many of his decisions are creating large controversies.
His bid to sack the country's chief justice has provoked outrage, deadly violence and the first large-scale public protests of his nearly eight-year rule. Musharraf was defeated by the court and the chief justice was reinstated.
Incidentally, this is the election year in Pakistan. Musharraf's plan is clear. He wants to extend his presidency for another five years and maintain his position as the army chief as well.
His core political support comes from a coalition that includes the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), a party he invented following the 1999 coup through which he came to power, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), an ethnically based party blamed for provoking political violence around the country.
The list of his enemies is growing. It includes not only exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who hopes to return to Pakistan to contest national and state assembly elections this winter. Islamic radicals charge that his army has killed Pakistani tribesmen sympathetic to Afghanistan's Talibans to appease American crusaders and that he has broken promises to serve as a civilian president. Secular middle-class professionals are fed up with his broken promises about full democracy, and allies within the military elite fear they will share the blame for his missteps.
Musharraf has survived tough challenges before, and he had confidence that it won't be so easy to drive him out from power. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won parliamentary elections five years ago. But Musharraf managed to exclude the PPP from government by persuading some of its members to defect to his coalition and by forging a political deal with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a loose alliance of six conservative religious parties that hope to one day bring theocracy to Pakistan.
But even a political tacticion as skilled as Musharraf may not survive the current crisis indefinitely. Recent polling suggests Bhutto's party remains popular, and the president's former Islamist allies have almost entirely abandoned him, mainly over his support for the U.S.-led war on terror.
Still, Musharraf shows no sign of retreat. Under the current constitution, Pakistan's president is elected by four provincial assemblies and the parliament. Knowing that the next parliament will contain fewer of his loyalists than the current one, Musharraf intends to seek re-election before the next parliamentary elections reshuffle the political deck. He also hopes to extend the life of a constitutional amendment, due to lapse this year, which allows him to remain chief of the army.
Musharraf perhaps never thought that any of his decision could be defied. But that was done by Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the country's chief justice who offered no promises to rule in the president's favour. The judge has refused to go quietly. Chaudhry's criticism of the president has won him admirers all over Pakistan, encouraging him to tour the countryside, whipping up anti-Musharraf fervour as he lectures on the importance of an independent judiciary.
When Musharraf was already defeated by the chief justice, the militants went for a direct fight with the soldiers at the Red Mosque. The bloody end of the Red Mosque crisis fuelled violance across the country. Many analysts see Pakistan as a place where killing of people has become very normal.
Pervez Musharraf's resume has its successes. His support for talented technocrats and their liberal economic reforms has earned him accolades both at home and abroad. Strong growth rates, his tolerance for a relatively free press, and the stability that comes with some $10 billion in U.S. aid since 9/11 may not guarantee his political survival -- particularly since corruption, inflation, high crime rates and rural poverty continue to burden Pakistan's development.
In fact, Musharraf receives the support from Washington, where he is regarded as a crucial ally on the frontline of the war on terror. The political cost of that choice is on the rise. But the US support also seems not strong at the moment. The White House has asked Pakistan to do more to defeat terrorist forces on its soil, repeating its warning that Washington may launch a military strike against Al Qaeda "safe haven" in its tribal region. The US warning threw Musharraf into further difficulty. When the home situation is volatile, the outside world is becoming critical to him.
Musharraf is likely to lose his grip on power in the coming days. Both Musharraf and Pakistan are in for a lot of uncertainty, and the country's longer-term economic and security outlook is becoming increasingly hazy and difficult to forecast. Across the globe all eyes are on Musharraf - to see how he would survive.