Myanmar: How far the reforms will go?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The reclusive south east nation of Myanmar - still known as Burma in the international arena - has been very much in the news for sometime for obvious reasons. The United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has paid a visit to the country, making it the first in last fifty years by an American dignitary of her status. The visit was much talked about across the globe since it was associated with the willingness of the regime in that country for democratic reforms that are very much vaunted by the people of Myanmar. The country has been under military rule since General Ne Win seized power in 1962 and remained in office till 1988, when SLORC, composed of 21 senior military officers took over from General Ne Win. Even though the newly 'elected' regime claims that it has now a representative government following last year's controversial elections, it is a nation where a lady known as "icon of democracy" is struggling for the last few decades to establish popular rule and her difficult quest for democracy earned her the Nobel peace prize. But Aung San Suu Kyi, who earlier was denied power despite winning the elections way back in 1992, still remains midway through the complex task of democratisation of her country. Hillary Clinton met her and also the regime chief President Thein Sein amidst growing signs that the country is veering towards reforms that would help flourish democracy. The US secretary of state appeared upbeat about coming developments in Myanmar as regards creating a democratic environment, but remained cautiously optimistic. Because, it is believed that the road to democracy in the country is still strewn with many impediments and it makes it interesting to witness when Myanmar can really overcome such obstacles. Nonetheless, things look better for the country which so far defied international clamour for changes and is now happily showing signs that are encouraging. As a sequel to the visit of the US secretary of state, certain changes are discernible in Myanmar that augurs well for democratic reforms. The regime has freed a good number of political prisoners while the opposition is asking for the release of many more. A major development in recent times in the country has been the decision by Aung San Suu Kyi to contest the by-elections in the coming months as a mark of her participation in the process aimed at bringing the character of the representative authority in governance. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party boycotted last year's polls which saw a massive victory by the supporters of the current regime. The country's rulers claim that it is now a "popular" government while democratic world has shunned the balloting as lacking in credibility. Suu Kyi's party was not registered with the election commission although it won a landslide in the 1992 voting. The elections carried little legitimacy as the nation continued to remain ruled by the same group of people - albeit under a different façade. The democratic leader - Aung San Suu Kyi - remained under house arrest for long and this spell of internment ended only after the conclusion of the so-called elections. But rather surprisingly, the reformist leadership of president Thein Sein, a retired general and former Junta member, has now persuaded the opposition force to register as a political party and contest the coming by-elections. Suu Kyi is running for one of the seats in the by-elections and this is being seen as a step forward towards creating an atmosphere conducive to democratic polls. The regime has also allowed anti-government protests on a limited scale that was prohibited earlier. The positive fallout of the visit of the US secretary of state are palpable in other areas as well since Hillary Clinton announced concessions to Myanmar in terms of relaxing the economic and other restrictions imposed earlier through UN embargo. Business and other contacts from the West are now showing interest in Myanmar. However, the Western restrictions were not very effective as several nations including China, India, Thailand and Singapore are in close trade and business interactions with Yangon despite its lack of democratic credentials. Evidently, regional, political and other strategies are playing a role here. Beijing and even democratic India seem to be wooing Myanmar for strategic purposes. Hillary Clinton has not announced total withdrawal of the sanctions imposed earlier because of denial of political reforms and iron-fist rule and oppression of opponents. But the concessions are seen as an encouragement by the West for national reconciliation that until recently showed scant respect for human rights. President Barack Obama had surprised the world to an extent when he had announced his secretary of state's Myanmar visit at a regional summit at Bali in Indonesia. It appears that Clinton's visit went off fairly well given the complexity associated with it. Myanmar is also conscious that it is getting the opportunity of leading the regional grouping ASEAN in the coming years and this makes it more keen to open up and embrace democratic principles as far as possible. For, it cannot justify that position as fellow ASEAN members demonstrating bigger eagerness for the representative governments in recent years. The signs pouring in from Myanmar are encouraging, but the road to final destination is still a bumpy one and it remains to be seen how far really the regime will go with the cherished democratic reforms. Because, the regime while being willing to bring about reforms, is also likely to be keen on remaining at the helm of state affairs and this may discourage it from going all the way on the democratic path. zaglulbss@yahoo.com