Myanmar prepares for election under the shadow of \\\'midnight political coup\\\'

Myanmar is preparing for a general election on November 08 next under the shadow of what has been dubbed a 'midnight coup' by the diplomatic community in Myanmar. The Speaker of Parliament Shwe Mann was suddenly removed on August 12 by the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Shwe Mann's removal was so named because the country's security forces entered the USDP's headquarters in Myanmar's new capital Naypyidaw late that night and he was unceremoniously ousted.
Indeed, it was a shocking incident because the majority of the civil population and as well as foreign observers generally believed that the popular Speaker, a former Army General, was likely to be Myanmar's next president. Before the last parliamentary elections in November 2010, Shwe Mann was considered the third most powerful person in the ruling junta. After the 2010 election, he became the Speaker and tried to consolidate his position as a popularly elected leader.
He, however, fell from grace, as explained by Myanmar watchers inside and outside the country. He tried to develop closer relations with the opposition National League of Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi. She demanded quick democratic reforms and Shwe Mann made public speeches supporting it. Suu Kyi's reforms were aimed at gradually curtailing the military's power and strengthening the country's democratic institutions.   This wasn't liked by the military leaders, and the inevitable has happened.
Of course, it didn't happen overnight. Following the formation of the government in March 2011 after the last elections, the opposition leaders demanded political reforms which included the release of political prisoners, withdrawal of restrictions on freedom of the press and the right of the political parties to operate openly. Each of these demands was to loosen the stranglehold of the military over the state machinery. But nothing came out of these initiatives simply because the powers that be never wanted to let go of their hold on the administration.
The military, however, seriously tried and succeeded to improve its relations with the West by holding the November 2010 polls and allowed the quasi-civilian government to take over in March 2011 providing some botched-up facilities for the country's political parties to operate. It also tried to keep the country's most famous politician and leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in good humour as a PR game to attract attention of the West and influence them to withdraw sanctions and welcome Myanmar back into the global framework. It worked very well. The western democracies led by the United States fell for the ploy because they thought it was their best opportunity to recover Myanmar over China's grip. It is, however, not clear if the West has realised their folly for responding too soon to the military's game plan even after Shwe Mann's ouster.        
For decades China was the only supporter Myanmar had in this wide world and Beijing provided all assistance they asked for and refused to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs despite outside pressure. The gradual spread of China's influence in Myanmar caused increasing concern in Washington which was looking for an opportunity to normalise its ties with Myanmar. The 2010 November election and the formation of government in March 2011 provided such an opportunity which Washington literally grabbed.
Once the ice was broken, the United States made quick efforts to make up for the lost time. At the end of November 2011, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar's new capital Naypyidaw which was the first top level visit from the US in half a century. This was quickly followed up in the year after by a visit from US President Barack Obama himself. One thing led to the other and the following year Myanmar President Thein Sein reciprocated the visit and visited Washington in May 2013, the first visit by a Myanmar President since 1966. As expected and to the delight of Washington, Myanmar distanced itself from China.
The de facto ruling USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party) General Secretary Maung Maung  Theian - a close ally of the deposed Shwe Mann - and other loyalists have also been removed to make the administration free of the ousted Speaker's influence. Shwe Mann's position as USDP head, which he was holding in addition to being parliament's speaker, has been given to former Major General Htay Oo and the party is now being reorganised for the November elections. Analysts believe, Washington is unlikely to react adversely now fearing that it may push the Myanmar military leaders closer to Beijing.          
Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi, undeterred by Shwe Mann's removal, has plunged herself into the campaign for what has been variously described as 'the first general election' since the end of the military rule and was rewarded by welcome from jubilant crowds wherever she went in the past week or so. Her present campaign theme for the people is: "Opt for the real change." One of her main thrusts in the election campaign is to prevent the election of high-profile candidates being fielded by the government agencies.
Suu Kyi, no doubt, is popular and has become an iconic figure. But she and her NLD have alienated the Muslim population accounting for about four per cent of the population by not taking any stand against the prolonged repression of the Muslim Rohingyas by the Buddhist majority and the government. Her party has apparently stopped selection of Muslim candidates even in the Muslim areas. Applications of quite a few high-profile Muslim candidates were reportedly turned down.
This is because Suu Kyi fears the Buddhist nationalists, especially the Committee for the Protection of Nationality and Religion (Ma Ba Tha, an acronym in Myanmar language) led by rightwing anti-Muslim monk Ashin Wirathu. She thinks, if she deviates, she may lose Buddhist votes and popular support. She had come under severe criticism in the western media sometime ago for her silence over the Rohingya issue. They pointed out that as a Nobel Laureate she has failed to live up to her commitment.     
According to agency reports, Suu Kyi during her campaign visited one of the constituencies near the Thai border where the powerful minister of Myanmar President's office Soe Thein is contesting for a seat in Parliament's upper house and urged the people to work for "real change". Soe Thein is an important player and is known to be the architect of President Thein Sein's economic reforms.    
The election on November 08 will elect members in the bicameral parliament and regional chambers for a five-year term. Following the elections, as per the electoral rules under the military-dominated system, both the upper and lower houses will nominate a candidate for the post of the country's president while the military will also nominate a third. Parliament will have to elect one of the three as the president. The newly-elected president will then form the new government.
There is a catch. The constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi to become a presidential candidate regardless of the poll result because her children are British national. In addition, the constitution also allows the military a veto on any major constitutional change. So, the NLD leader and other democracy practitioners will have to painstakingly navigate through a narrow, difficult channel to make any attempt for meaningful reforms.
Myanmar's constitution, according to Myanmar expert Bertil Lintner's article in YaleGlobal, online publication of Yale University, was drafted under military supervision and adopted in 2008 after a referendum. Lintner claims that the referendum was dismissed by most observers as "fraudulent." Under this constitution, the military holds 25 per cent of all parliamentary seats and regional assemblies. Any change in the constitution requires 75 per cent approval, thus the military has ensured its authority over any major changes in the country's power structure.
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