Nairobi calling: WTO to deliver

The year, 2015, is quite a busy year for the global leaders. They, along with their respective teams, have already spent huge time and energy for attending and contributing to a series of important international conferences. The summits or conferences are considered crucial for future direction of the world, although all of these are not new.
The most hyped of these is the Sustainable Development Summit, a special summit during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 25-27. This summit has formally adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a set of 17 goals divided in 169 targets with 304 indicators, to be achieved in next 15 years. SDGs are the successors of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), adopted in the UN in 2000 for 15 years. 2015 is thus the terminal year of the MDGs and 2016 will be the first year of the SDGs. It includes the goals of eliminating all kinds of poverty and hunger, building resilient infrastructure, protecting the eco system and revitalising global partnership for sustainable development.
The UN summit on SDGs will be followed by annual conference on global climate change. Termed as Conference of the Parties (COP), it will take place in Paris from November 30 to December 11. The main objective of the COP is to limit carbon emissions and save the planet from global warming and associated changes in climate.  
Impact of climate change is a great concern for the world. Despite lots of efforts, little has been achieved so far to cut carbon emission as developed and developing countries are in logger-heads on devising effective ways of reducing carbon emission. In fact, developed countries are reducing emissions slowly while developing countries (for example--China, India) want to use energy to grow their economies on the plea that the same thing was done by the developed countries earlier. So, it becomes a tricky issue to settle.
SDGs are linked with the global challenge of climate change as sustainable development is not possible without protecting environment and addressing adverse impact of climate change. So, policy makers and negotiators of different countries are putting additional efforts for the Paris meet energised by  successful adoption of the SDGs.
In addition to these events, another significant event is also due to be held this year -- the 10th ministerial conference of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in the Kenyan capital Nairobi in December 15-18. Let us have a look at some of the major issues set for the most important conference that would govern international trade in the years to come.
FROM BALI TO NAIROBI: Around two years ago, trade ministers and senior representatives of the member countries of the WTO managed to revive the multilateral trade regime. They decided to move ahead by agreeing to ease the procedures of cross-border trade, remove imbalance in agriculture subsidy and allow better market access to the poorest countries. Known as the `Bali Package', it is the most substantive breakthrough in the prolonged negotiation process of the Doha Development Round which was initiated in 2001.
The follow-up actions of Bali are, however, not fully satisfactory. Although the WTO adopted Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) as an outcome of Bali deal, very few member countries have ratified the agreement so far. Some countries including Bangladesh have adopted a 'wait and see' policy. These countries will not ratify the TFA now and will wait for others. The idea is that when two-third members will ratify it, the agreement will be binding for all 161 member countries of the organisation. But such policy to 'skip' the ratification process will delay the implementation of the TFA.    
Again, the most contentious issue in the Bali conference was public stockholding for food security. It was India's strong insistence that finally forced the members in reaching a compromised deal. It was thus agreed that member countries would not go for legal step in case of farm subsidies on food unless a 'permanent solution' is adopted. Members also agreed to work out the permanent solution by the time of the 11th ministerial conference or by 2017. This is a tricky issue.  The Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has allowed maximum subsidies, termed as Aggregate Measures of Support (AMS), at 10 per cent of value of farm output for the developing countries. Government procurement of food at higher than the market price is also considered trade distorting and thus subject to challenge in WTO through trade dispute mechanism. But developing countries claimed that the method and reference price of calculating AMS is outdated. The global food price of 1998-99 is the reference price which is no more logical after 25 years and it requires revision in line with the current global trend.
In Bali, developed members also agreed to widen market access for the least developed countries (LDCs) and report on measures taken by them in this regard. Already, almost all the developed countries and some developing countries have extended duty-free market access and preferential access respectively to the LDCs. The United States is the only developed county which is yet to provide 100 per cent market access to LDCs on the plea that Doha negotiation is not fully concluded.   
Against this backdrop, the Nairobi ministerial conference is set to review the progress and implementation of the Bali Package and also adopt some more initiatives to complete the prolonged Doha round negotiation.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM: As the time for Nairobi ministerial conference is approaching, differences between developed and developing countries are re-emerging strongly. And with it, the increasing uncertainty. Sensing this, WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo has already cautioned the member countries. In his latest speech, delivered at the Peterson Institute in Washington D.C. on September 24, Mr Azevedo said: "Right now, we are working hard to deliver meaningful outcomes in our next Ministerial Conference in Nairobi this December. This will be the first time such a meeting is being held in Africa. But as things stand today - and this won't come as a surprise - it doesn't look like there will be big breakthroughs in the issues that have been stalled for so long, such as domestic support in Agriculture and market access in Agriculture, NAMA and services.
The gaps in these areas are still very big. The situation may change, but there are few signs of this at present. And if there are no prospects for a major advance on these issues, members will need to face the reality. They will need to think about what they want the WTO to be and how it should work in the future."
The WTO chief, however, expressed his `cautious optimism' on successful outcome of the 10th ministerial meeting. That's why, he said: "Despite differences on major issues, I think there is still potential for a meaningful agreement in Nairobi. And indeed delivering a successful Nairobi meeting is perhaps the best thing we can do to make the system work better."
In fact, leading countries in the multilateral trade negotiation also want to move forward by narrowing their differences. That's why, the so-called G-7 (the US, the European Union or EU, Japan, Australia, Brazil, China and India) is going to meet in Turkish capital Istanbul on October 5 to reach a 'consensus' to make the Nairobi meeting a minimum success. Many believe that the Istanbul meet will have little positive development and so trade ministers have to go to Nairobi with uncertainty. Besides, as the negotiations on plurilateral trade deals like Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Environmental Goods Agreement, and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) gain momentum, future of multilateral trade negotiation appears really uncertain.
Plurilateral deals are, for the most part, aggressive having stringent terms and conditions where small and poor countries will get very little space. Even big developing countries are not as comfortable as in the WTO process. Thus, having lots of differences, Nairobi meet actually brings an opportunity for narrowing the gap and making some deliverables. Moreover, taking cue from the SDGs, it is high time to strongly use trade as an important tool for sustainable development. As WTO enters into the 20th year of its existence, there should be call from Nairobi for the organisation to deliver in a more balanced way.
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