Narendra Modi and Indian elections

It all started with an obliquely floated remark from veteran Congress MP Mani Shankar Aiyar. At a conclave of the Indian National Congress in January, Mani Shankar Aiyar made the remark about the opposition politician Narendra Modi, who is from a low caste and once helped his father sell tea. Mr Aiyar reportedly said, "There is no way he [Modi] can be prime minister in the 21st century…but if he wants to come and distribute tea here we can make some room for him!" By the time the MP denied making such remarks, the story was flying around the Indian media. Mr Modi, however, made hay with the gaffe, playing up his man-in-the-street appeal with a series of tea-based rallies. In no time, he was able to create a euphoria hardly experienced after Mahatma Gandhi.
Aiyar's remarks apparently fell flat on an electorate of 814 million voters and they woke up with a renewed sympathy for Mr. Modi. Two-thirds of India's population are under 35 and 150 million are eligible to vote for the first time. It remains to be seen, if the euphoria culminates in victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the world's largest democracy. As it is, getting a hold on the politics of a country like India is no easy task: it has many players and the issues are different in every region. The only certainty is that Manmohan Singh will no longer be prime minister. After two terms in office, the 81-year-old economist is stepping down with a mixed legacy.
Prospects of Mr. Modi in India's general elections are reported to be extremely bright.  After 10 years of rule by the Indian National Congress, polls indicate that the opposition BJP is likely to win a plurality of seats in parliament and lead the next government in New Delhi. The BJP's Narendra Modi is likely to be prime minister.
Things, however, need to be analysed a bit more dispassionately. Because, dominating politics in India, a country of multiple races and languages, issues and problems, values and mindset, can not, and should not be equated with a momentary euphoria. The euphoria, which literally means an unfounded feeling of optimism, may have a lot to say, but the final say comes from somewhere else.
Now, Narendra Modi is well known for many things: he is a devout Hindu, a fervent nationalist, a vegetarian, a hard-core conservative, the leader of the right-wing BJP, a hawk on Pakistan, and proud of the economic prosperity he has brought to his native state of Gujarat under his 13-year stewardship as chief minister. But he is also widely assailed in India and elsewhere for his apparent (and disputed) role in facilitating the deadly communal riots in 2002 in Gujarat which killed at least 1,200 people, mostly Muslims.
With such a distinct Hindu leaning, how is he going to poll non-Hindu votes? Although he was absolved of any complicity in those massacres by a panel of India's Supreme Court in 2012, Modi remains an extremely polarizing figure.
The euphoria around Narendra Modi has assumed enormous proportions lately and has pushed Congress, the party that ruled India for most of 70 years, to the back stage. It remains to be seen, how long the euphoria continues and how long it holds aloft the Modi flag.
A few recent developments have already pushed him to the back foot and necessitated review and reformulation of strategy. The Shahi Imam of Delhi mosque expressed his unequivocal support for Congress after meeting Sonia Gandhi. Shahi Imam is looked upon as, and indeed enjoys the respect of, a frontline Muslim leader in India. The situation has been further worsened by the recent disclosures made by Cobrapost on destruction of the Babri mosque. Cobrapost revealed online, destruction of Babri mosque was not the result of momentary anger of a group of Hindu extremists. Rather, it was planned over a long period of time with inputs from top notches of BJP, and even the then Prime Minister of India P V Narsimha Rao was aware of it. A disclosure that exploded like a bomb shell, must have sent cold shivers down BJP's spine. Neither incident, by any stretch of imagination, is going to help BJP's cause. On the contrary, both incidents may contribute significantly in dislodging BJP from the centre stage of Indian politics. Another matter that bugs the Muslim community of India is the Israel issue.
Under Modi's leadership and encouragement, Israel has poured billions of dollars of investment into Gujarat. Officials from both Gujarat and Israel have visited each other over the past few years to deepen trade and economic links. While it was a Congress government that established diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992, it was under a BJP-led government from 1999 to 2004 that India's ties with the Jewish State blossomed.
Indeed, the BJP's intransigent hostility against Pakistan, and the Islamic world as a whole, has been music to Israel's ears. India recognised Israel as long ago as 1950 -- but the relationship has complicated India's links with the Arab and Muslim world. Indeed, India is dependent on oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia and has sent millions of migrants to work in the Middle East since the 1970s oil boom (providing India with much-needed cash remittances).
Defence trade between Israel and India amounts to some $10 billion alone, according to reports (thereby making Israel the number one arms supplier to India, supplanting Russia). Modi himself has visited Israel as chief minister, suggesting that, as the possible next prime minister, he could make history by journeying to the Jewish state. India's relations with Israel have been quite strong in recent years, and Modi in power would simply strengthen this relationship even more.
With India looking for change and more importantly, seeking world leadership, Mr. Modi's expressions against Muslims and Islam as a whole, both overt and covert, are certain to work as deterrents.
The elections have pitted Rahul Gandhi, vice president of Congress and scion of Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, against Modi, the son of a tea-stall owner.
With the national polls beginning from today, chinks have already started appearing on Modi's armoury. Aside from his inability (or is it reluctance?) to stop the Gujarat riots, his politics, style and message present an ersatz version of the BJP. There is little that is civilisational about him. Worse still, many analysts believe, he creates an artificial Swadeshi, that creates a politics of anxiety around security. The paradox of Mr. Modi is that he might criticise the Congress model of Federalism but adds little to the alchemy of unity and inclusiveness of India.
There are many unanswered questions. As Rahul Gandhi puts it, there was a "clear and inexcusable failure" of governance in Gujarat where 1,200 people, mainly Muslims, were killed in riots in 2002 after Modi took office in 2001. The specific allegation and evidence pointing to Mr Modi's responsibility in the 2002 riots are yet to be adequately probed. Any talk of his having been given a clean chit (slate) may be politically expedient, but is far too premature. Modi has denied wrongdoing and has been cleared by legal inquiries, but allegations that he failed to stop the riots continue to dog the prime ministerial candidate.  
A lilt is already audible in the inner political circle of Delhi that if Mr. Modi fails to win 200 seats, other parties may come forward to back Mr. L. K. Advani as Prime Minister and if BJP is restricted within 170/180 seats, Mr. Modi may be overlooked.    
Politics is a funny game, where the outcome can not be predicted until the last vote is cast.
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