Nasrallah killing sets a dangerous precedent

The killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of his close associates, in an Israeli raid in Lebanon certainly does not end the crisis in the Middle East. Much as Benjamin Netanyahu would like the world to know, the activities of the Israeli military in this past year have only exacerbated conditions in the region. And now, with Nasrallah's death, a greater danger is what the wider world confronts.
There are the reasons why the world should be concerned about what has been going wrong in the Middle East. Israel's pounding of Gaza and the West Bank in the past twelve months, the consequence being the death of nearly 42,000 Palestinians and survivors forced into internal exile of the worst sort, has gone on unchecked. The international community has been unable to either restrain Netanyahu or to censure him, that last bit owing to the strong levels of support he yet enjoys in such capitals as Washington.
The consequences of inaction against Netanyahu and his extremist government are now out there for all to see. Israeli intelligence has tracked senior military commanders of Hamas and Hezbollah --- and add to that number the high-level Iranians who have been victims of targeted killings --- and put an end to their lives. But such action has only emboldened Israel's enemies into deepening their operations against Tel Aviv. Netanyahu's consistent claim that he would destroy Hamas has been followed by renewed assaults, through missile attacks on Israeli towns, by Hamas.
Israel has clearly been unable to subdue Hamas. It should have been for Israel's embattled leadership to opt for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. A refusal to take that path has only widened the theatre of conflict, with the Israelis now embroiled in fresh crises in southern Lebanon and Yemen. Israel's bizarre ability to create new enemies has now made it hard for it to set a course toward a rolling back of the situation. It was a blunder taking out Nasrallah and his team in Beirut. It does not help that Joe Biden, rather than taking Netanyahu to task over the action, chose to describe the killing operation in Beirut as a measure of justice for the Hezbollah leader.
All of this has pushed geopolitics into a condition where niceties and respect for territorial integrity have been pushed to an extreme by Israel's leaders. With Israel freely and without any demonstration of respect for international law having its air force rain down missiles on Beirut in search of Hezbollah, worries assume a horrendous dimension. And that is largely the creation of a precedent that in future will allow states to send in their forces into countries they might feel will be necessary to bomb, kill or flush out their enemies. Lebanon is no stranger to such external violence. In the 1980s, Israeli troops and Palestinian guerrillas fought it out in the country, ruining the very fabric of Lebanon's political system. Now the assault on Beirut and on southern Lebanon throws up the very real possibility of the Middle East crisis not only broadening out but also of states not involved in the crisis bearing the brunt of external assault.
Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Iran's leadership that Israel has the ability to reach deep into Iran, a statement grounded on the understanding that the Hezbollah has long enjoyed Tehran's support in its operations against Tel Aviv. Now 200 Iranian missiles hitting Tel Aviv have given Netanyahu a taste of his own medicine. Netanyahu's bellicosity should raise alarm bells around the world, for it is patently dismissive of international law. A rules-based world is clearly under threat, for other nations might now begin to feel the need to assert their authority over nations they consider enemies by simply bombing them into submission or having their soldiers march into them as a way of achieving their questionable purposes. It is a precedent which someday might have Pakistani soldiers go into Afghanistan to subdue the Taliban forces responsible for trouble at the frontier between the two countries.
Israel's violation of Lebanese sovereignty, together with its refusal to draw an end to the massacre of Palestinians in Gaza, is stark warning for the world of the terror that might threaten the future of nations. Iran will, in light of Netanyahu's bombast, be under threat of an Israeli assault. And one can be sure that no leaders in the West will condemn such a move if it comes to pass. The irony is that while large sections of the western leadership were quick to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one does not seriously expect them to do a similar act if Iran falls under Israeli aggression. They will be happy to see regime change in Tehran through Israeli military action. And out of that situation will emerge a new crisis, with Turkey's Recep Tayyep Erdogan not willing to remain quiet when his own borders come under threat as a result of Israeli action against Iran.
Nations around the globe have a right to be concerned about the impunity with which Israel's leadership has been vitiating the scene over the past year. Its bombing of Beirut has pushed Lebanon to a fresh spate of instability, given that it already suffers from issues of governance. If Israel's leadership remain unleashed in their violence, other leaders around the world, their own motives at work, might be inspired into taking a leaf out of the Israeli playbook. Rwanda could decide to march into Congo in force to subdue elements it considers a threat to its security. With the Chinese laying claims to chunks of Indian territory, the leadership in Delhi will be properly and justifiably worried about the threat. The 1962 border clashes have not been forgotten by Indians. A new Trump administration could be tempted to send American troops into Mexico to force an end to the influx of refugees into the United States. With belligerence permeating policy-making in the new Nato member states along its border, a resurgent Russia might someday decide to teach them a lesson by direct military means. Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968 remain unforgotten.
The danger is therefore hard to ignore. The state of Israel is a threat to global stability in these times. More pertinently, Netanyahu symbolises this danger. As long as he clings to power, people around the world will not sleep well at night. War criminals on the loose are a risk to lives everywhere.

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