No accurate statistics yet on rural economy

Although the agricultural sector provides one-fifths of GDP and employs roughly two-thirds of the country's workforce, there has been very little attempt to improve agricultural statistics. These are alleged to be of dubious quality leading to confusing and misleading policy prescriptions. Thus the claim of a 'surplus' or a 'deficit' in food grain production should be viewed with some grain of salt.
There has been lack of quality data and professional research, which is seriously hindering an objective analysis of agricultural performances. The rural economy of Bangladesh also faces a new era from the shift of agrarian structure reflecting a syndrome of pauperisation. This implies that small and marginal farmers have occupied the cockpit of agricultural practices while large and medium farms are witnessing a sunset.
With increasing exit of large and medium farmers from agricultural activities, the tenancy market has grown vibrant to benefit landless and marginal land owners with access to land for cultivation. The important concern now is how to make these tiny holders viable in terms of market orientation and technology adoption.
 An account of the changes in the agricultural sector and its link with food security always needs a closer scrutiny with relevant empiricism. Disconcertingly, nutritional improvements don't seem to have gone in tandem with the growth of agricultural output. Again, the role of women in overall economic development has been documented by a number of studies, so is women's empowerment. But a deeper exploration of the role of women, particularly in farms, has been lacking. Based on household-level data, the forestalled hypothesis is that the role of women in agriculture has increased over time but they still face a lot of barriers, particularly on account of wage disparity.
The most dramatic transformation in rural areas has been in the realm of farm technology but empirical observation on this are rare. Time is perhaps ripe to provide an account of the reasons for the growth of farm mechanisation, its costs and benefits. Currently, rental market for machinery services in rural areas is growing. Faced with shortage of agricultural labour and livestock, the rural economy has been witnessing massive mechanisation over time. Research needs to be done on the impact of mechanisation on labour employment.
The most contentious issue in rural development centres is related to rural credit market. Despite increasing role of the government in channelling credit to rural areas, something is missing there.  The credit market is dominated by NGOs, followed by non-institutional sources of credit. An examination of the sources of credit, the access across economic status of households and an insight into the degree of inclusiveness demands empirical tests.
The rural credit market covers only 40 per cent of rural households despite the growth of NGO-led microfinance institutions (MFIs) and government and private sector initiatives. Still roughly, one-thirds of the access to credit owes to non-institutional sources of credit.
Bangladesh has experienced impressive progress in enrolment in schools in rural areas, particularly for girls. A deeper analysis of the remaining exclusion and high drop-out rates is lacking. The euphoria over increasing enrolment in schools might recoil in the wake of increasing dropouts and the determinants of dropouts need to be worked out using regression analysis.
In the health sector, some improvement has been observed but far from the norm. The adage 'Health is Wealth' is often overlooked by rural people although recent studies tend to give some comfort. A case study on BRAC's Water, Sanitation and Health (WASH) shows that access to pure water and sanitary latrines has improved over time but more need to be done to put people on an even keel.
Again, the problem of arsenic contamination is a serious health concern in Bangladesh. Although the government and the development partners have forgotten the issue after initial hue and cry, people continue to suffer from its impact on health and its fallout on socio-cultural context.
Causes of poverty have long been pitted against factors like income, land ownership, education etc. The effect of climate change and its challenges, especially with respect to sea-level rise and its impacts on rural livelihoods and human security hasn't been dealt with comprehensively before. Bangladesh needs to prepare for a bailout from the upcoming complexes relating to sea-level rise, and in this context, few suggestions have been made.
The issues of food, famine and failures are interlinked. Availability of food in the market or an increase in food production is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to avert famine. The moot issue is entitlement that largely hinges on state support and sponsored development works to generate employment in rural areas.
One of the leading issues in rural development is the growth of rural non-farm economy (RNFE). The vast expansion of the non-farm sector (itself being an offshoot of agricultural growth with Green Revolution) has resulted in a tight labour market, luring large and medium farmers to transfer their surplus from agriculture to non-agriculture. Roughly two-thirds of household income now flows from non-agricultural pursuits. Bangladesh is now being dubbed a 'development puzzle.' An answer to that puzzle seems to lie in the rapid rural development and resilience in rural areas.
Finally, the daunting challenge seems to be posing for reasons of political culture. In the past, there were many hartals and blockade but possibly not as prolonged and biting as the present one is. The wave of recent political unrest, spearheaded by continued blockade, hartals, bomb blasts and arson attacks have apparently brought rural people to their knees. Farmers are unable to market commodities or buy inputs with non-agricultural labour facing a fall in incomes due to lack of employment opportunities; poultry firms or weavers are facing acute problems. By and large, it is likely that the on-going political instability, if it continues unabated, might push a large number of people below the poverty line. A country known as 'development puzzle' is seemingly faced with a political puzzle.
The writer is a Professor
of Economics at
 Jahangirnagar University.
[email protected]