No need to hide the inflation data

There is no monthly update of the country's inflationary trend for the last few of months. Instead, the national statistical body has been releasing inflation data on a quarterly basis. Instructed by the planning minister, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has stopped monthly release of inflation data since May last year.
The latest inflation data available is for the month of December last year. The annual average rate of inflation stood at 5.70 per cent in that month which was 5.52 per cent in January. The BBS data showed that average inflation rate continued to decline till May last and then it slowly started to soar. In fact, for the next seven months, it was on upward curve.
In the current year, two months have passed and the third month is also nearing its end. No official data on the country's price level situation is available. The data for January-March quarter is likely to be available in the first week of April this year.
No rational explanation was given regarding switching to quarterly inflation data from the long practice of monthly updates. The planning minister, however, argued that quarterly data could provide a better picture of inflation. His argument has not been substantiated adequately.
Monthly update of inflation data is a standard global practice. Bangladesh has been doing this for long. It helps the policymakers, businesses, consumers and analysts to understand the trend of inflation.
In Bangladesh, price inflation or inflation is calculated on the basis of Consumer Price Index (CPI). It demonstrates the combined burden consumers are bearing due to rise in the price level of different goods and services. The monthly CPI data provides a broader picture of the price level of food and non-food items and also the price trend in both the urban and rural areas of the country. It also provides Wage Rate Index (WRI) which is an important indicator for measuring the trend and changes in the aggregate wages of the wage earners of a country.
There was a time when BBS didn't formally disclose the monthly inflation data. It only submitted it to the concerned ministry and government bodies. Newsmen used to collect the figure from different ministries and sometimes from BBS unofficially. Later, BBS starts to organise a press briefing every month where the planning minister briefs the media on inflation and other related indicators.
Now, shifting to a shady disclosure mechanism raises questions, especially about the authenticity of the inflation estimation as well as other statistics. Some quarters argue that the policymakers are trying to conceal the real trend of inflation caused mainly by the increasing pressure of price hike. They also apprehend that there might be some flaws in the calculation process of inflation.
Curiously, government bodies, including the central bank, which rely on various BBS data on a regular basis do not seem to raise any note of concern in this regard. It is not clear how the central bank is gauging the impact of money supply in the absence of updated inflation data. If, however, BBS shares monthly inflation data with the central bank confidentially, it is a different matter.
Another point to note here is that in the last couple of months, the banking sector has been witnessing a surge in interest rates on deposits. It is attributed to liquidity crisis in the money market. There is another way to interpret the rise of interest rates. It may be one of the results of inflationary pressure. Traditionally, when inflation rate increases, central bank tries to contain it by rising policy rates and subsequently the interest rates. This time, policy rates remain unchanged as no updated data on inflation is available.
It is not unlikely that the market somehow feels some inflationary pressure and the pressure drives the interest rate to rise autonomously. Such kind of observation is, however, not valid unless there is demand-pull inflation. Nevertheless, non-availability of monthly inflation data is good enough to fuel such speculations and conjectures.
Thus, it is crucial to unveil the CPI and WRI on a monthly basis. When the economy is on a growing trend, there is always some inflationary pressure, and there is no set rule that the country has to go through a 'high growth low inflation' trajectory. It is better to accept the reality when inflation rises and to put in place efforts to contain it.

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