Nuclear option a must to meet power shortage
Saturday, 15 November 2008
Abul Kashem Haider
The demand of electricity is increasing day by day. Power Development Board is at a loss to meet the growing demand. Although electricity is not included in the list of fundamental needs like food, cloth, education, treatment and shelter, it has now become a very important need, which deserves to be considered as a fundamental one. The greater portion of the population is deprived of electricity, while only 42 per cent is recorded as electricity user. Industrialisation is being adversely affected owing to failure of production, marketing and supply of electricity. It is not a hard task for Bangladesh to becoming a middle income country by 2021. But failure to meet the growing demands of gas and electricity, the desired achievement will be frustrated, It appears from a report regarding power projection that the existing power plants of the country has a capacity to produce 5275 MW, but actual production was 4150 MW till December, 2007. On observation of the production reports of the last few years, it appeared that the highest production was 3587 MW implying a deficit of more than 2500 MW. Of the total production, 85.75 per cent is gas-based, 3.65 per cent is hydroelectric, 4.80 per cent is coal-based and 5.80 per cent is oil-based. At present, due to inadequate supply of gas, production of gas-based electricity has reduced. So, establishment of new gas-based power plant will not be possible if well extractable gas field is not explored.
Present position: Considering the acute shortage of gas reserve the government is now thinking of setting up a 1000 MW capacity atomic energy-based power plant. Establishment of such a plant, in fact, has become crucial considering the present situation in the power sector. It appears from news media that the government is going ahead with the plan to establish a 1000-MW atomic energy-based power plant to face the situation. Mean time, a team headed by the Secretary, Ministry of Science and technology and Communication is set to visit Vienna for having discussion with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) to explore the possibility of importation of machinery and equipment, raw materials etc. for the plant. On the other hand, Russia and France including China have shown keen interest in setting up an atomic power station in Bangladesh and a team consisting of representatives from South Korea visited Bangladesh and expressed willingness to execute an agreement for setting up an atomic energy centre in Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh is thinking of setting up a reactor at the first phase for producing 1000 MW electricity. The experts in different sectors hold the view that the government is thinking of this plan with importance considering the growing needs of power in the face of diminishing reserve of gas.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) expressed the hope about setting up an atomic power plant in Bangladesh. The IAEA is encouraging establishment of an atomic power plant for producing electricity which is suitable in the present state of the global climatic condition. It is learnt from different sources that establishment of an atomic power plant with the capacity to produce 600 - 1000 MW electricity will cost 1.50 to 2.0 billion dollars. It will take five years to complete the plant for commissioning into production. Dr. Shafiqul Islam, Chairman, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission holds the view that if electricity is sold at Tk.0.69, the investment will be returned within seven years and it will also be possible to establish another reactor of 1000 MW capacity with the income.
Activities of the government: It is learnt from the Ministry of Science and Information Technology that the government prepared a draft act for atomic energy and have already sent it to IAEA. A mission of IAEA will come to Bangladesh in the next month to see the preliminary steps taken by the government for establishment of an atomic reactor. They will find out the problems and shortcomings and suggest remedial measures to remove the hurdles to the establishment of the reactor. It could be learnt from the sources in the Ministries of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, and Science, Information and Communications Technology that the demand for electricity of the country will stand at 14000 MW in 2015 and it will increase to 42000 MW in 2025. This rate of increase has been determined by calculating the growth rate by 8 per cent per annum. If GDP is calculated at 5.2 per cent, the demand for electricity will be 10,000 MW and it will increase to 20,000 MW in 2025. Scarcity of our gas reserve will start from 2011.
It is suggested that coal should be used as an alternative to gas for producing electricity and total dependence on gas should be minimised shifting a considerable load to coal. The idea is appreciable but in fact, we do not have that much deposit of coal to the meet the growing needs. Moreover, easy investment facility is also not there in this sector like others. It appears from a survey report that the cost per KWH of atomic energy-based electricity will be Tk.0.63 including profit margin, until it reaches the consumers. The cost of setting a second atomic reactor with capacity of 600 - 1000 MW will be much less than the first reactor of the same capacity. The French occupied the first place in the world for producing atomic energy-based electricity. In France per KWH atomic energy-based electricity costs only 2.54 cent. According to survey conducted by foreign countries, the same amount of electricity from coal costs 3.33 cent and that from gas costs 3.92 cent. In Korea, per KWH of electricity from atomic energy-based power plants costs 4.13 cent, while from the gas-based ones costs 4.15 cent and that from coal-based plants cost 12.39 cent. Bangladesh informed the IAEA of its desire to set up two atomic reactors having a capacity to produce 2000 MW electricity. It is hoped that the implementation of this project will start in 2009.
The IAEA has taken up a technical assistance project to assist Bangladesh in setting up the atomic reactor. They will extend cooperation for development of human resource, management control system and infrastructural facilities for establishment of atomic reactors. They will also conduct two training courses, each of three months' duration in Bangladesh. A representative body of Bangladesh visited the head office of the IAEA in May last. During their visit the IAEA gave hope to extend necessary cooperation for the project for peaceful use of atomic energy. But the site safety report has not been updated. Although we have an Act framed in 1993 for atomic security and radiation control, still a comprehensive Act and a separate controlling authority is required to be formed. The Atomic Energy Commission has, however, made a good progress in this respect. The Technical Assistance Committee of IAEA is now preparing the specimen tender documents for inviting tender for the purpose of setting up atomic reactors. Bangladesh had already signed five Memoranda of Understanding with the IAEA giving assurance for peaceful use of atomic energy during the period from 1979 to 2001.
Activities history: Besides the above, Bangladesh signed Memorandum of Understanding with United States of America in 1981 and 2003, with Italy in 2000 and with China in 2005 for peaceful use of atomic energy and for scientific and- technical assistance. Bangladesh also entered into five conventions prohibiting making of atomic weapons, test launching of any atomic weapons and its misuse by any miscreant.
Dr. Shafiqul Islam Bhuiyan, Chairman, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission said that there is no international legal bar for implementation of Rooppur Atomic Energy-based power project for producing electricity. He further informed of our willingness to establish atomic reactor for producing electricity to overcome the tremendous shortage of electricity of the country. The IAEA has already given us assurance for extending all necessary cooperation for providing technical assistance for the purpose. They are also giving technical and financial assistance in some areas. We have got essential manpower to set up a reactor. We are now capable enough to establish atomic reactor and run its management.
It is known that although agreement is signed with the IAEA ensuring peaceful use of atomic energy but reliability in this regard is most important. The issue is very sensitive to the neighbouring countries possessing nuclear power. It is learnt that Korea, Russia and France are willing to extend necessary assistance but delay is caused by Bangladesh in completing all necessary formalities for the purpose. During Chief Adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's recent visit to Beijing, China once again showed keen interest in setting up an atomic reactor and for that we should take immediate necessary measures.
Atomic power plants in different countries: At present Bangladesh has the capacity to produce only 4, 000 MW electricity. According to the views of the scientists of Atomic Energy Commission, there is no alternative to atomic reactor to meet the growing need for electricity in the country. If it is assumed that only 165 KWH electricity is consumed per head per annum in Bangladesh, then only 40 per cent of the total population comes under this facility. In France 80 per cent of the total demand of electricity is met by atomic energy-based power plant. There are 59 atomic reactors in France.
There are as many as 439 reactors of this kind in the world. Of them, 136 are in the continent of Asia. Another 33 are under construction in different countries, India has 17 atomic reactors. Total production of electricity from these reactors is 4120 MW per day.
Another six reactors are under construction. In Pakistan, two reactors are in production which are generating 425 MW electricity. Three more reactors are under construction. A big First Breeder Reactor having capacity to produce 500 MW electricity is being constructed at Kalbakrarn in Madras of India which at present exists only in France.
Progressive planning: The planning for establishment of Atomic Energy-based power plant at Rooppur of Ishwardi was taken up in 1961. 292 acres of land was also acquired for the purpose. Survey for financial viability was conducted five times and the project was recommended as economically viable and profitable. During the Pakistan period, decision was taken to set up a plant with capacity of 70 MW. In 1966 a decision was taken for a establishing a 140 MW plant. In 1969, the proposal was enhanced to 200 MW. After liberation in 1980, a decision was taken to implement the project for producing 125 MW electricity.
Measures required to be taken: It appears from an analysis of the above facts that for industrialisation and leading the country towards prosperity, there is no alternative to developing fuel. Decisions were taken to establish the atomic energy centre at different times-in 1961, 1963, 1964, 1969 and finally in 1980. But no effective measure was taken to implement the project.
Against this backdrop, the measures to be taken now are:
1. The decision for establishment of atomic energy-based power plant should be implemented on priority basis. For this purpose, a high-powered committee at national level should be formed.
2. The government should not sit idle entrusting only the secretaries of the ministries with the total responsibility.
The head of government should 'take proper initiative at the national level to implement the decision on a top priority basis.
3. National election will be held on December 18 and a new government will be in power. The newly elected government has to be alert about the implementation of the decision at national level. This should be included in the election manifesto of the political parties with clear declaration for setting up of atomic energy-based power plant.
4. Instead of taking a plan for only 1000 MW, planning should be made for establishing a 1000 MW plant at the first phase and subsequently for 1500 MW to meet the growing needs.
Progressive plan should be taken, because demand for electricity is increasing by 8.0 per cent per annum and establishment of new gas-based power plant is becoming uncertain as the reserve of gas is dwindling fast.
The writer is Chairman, Eastern University
The demand of electricity is increasing day by day. Power Development Board is at a loss to meet the growing demand. Although electricity is not included in the list of fundamental needs like food, cloth, education, treatment and shelter, it has now become a very important need, which deserves to be considered as a fundamental one. The greater portion of the population is deprived of electricity, while only 42 per cent is recorded as electricity user. Industrialisation is being adversely affected owing to failure of production, marketing and supply of electricity. It is not a hard task for Bangladesh to becoming a middle income country by 2021. But failure to meet the growing demands of gas and electricity, the desired achievement will be frustrated, It appears from a report regarding power projection that the existing power plants of the country has a capacity to produce 5275 MW, but actual production was 4150 MW till December, 2007. On observation of the production reports of the last few years, it appeared that the highest production was 3587 MW implying a deficit of more than 2500 MW. Of the total production, 85.75 per cent is gas-based, 3.65 per cent is hydroelectric, 4.80 per cent is coal-based and 5.80 per cent is oil-based. At present, due to inadequate supply of gas, production of gas-based electricity has reduced. So, establishment of new gas-based power plant will not be possible if well extractable gas field is not explored.
Present position: Considering the acute shortage of gas reserve the government is now thinking of setting up a 1000 MW capacity atomic energy-based power plant. Establishment of such a plant, in fact, has become crucial considering the present situation in the power sector. It appears from news media that the government is going ahead with the plan to establish a 1000-MW atomic energy-based power plant to face the situation. Mean time, a team headed by the Secretary, Ministry of Science and technology and Communication is set to visit Vienna for having discussion with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) to explore the possibility of importation of machinery and equipment, raw materials etc. for the plant. On the other hand, Russia and France including China have shown keen interest in setting up an atomic power station in Bangladesh and a team consisting of representatives from South Korea visited Bangladesh and expressed willingness to execute an agreement for setting up an atomic energy centre in Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh is thinking of setting up a reactor at the first phase for producing 1000 MW electricity. The experts in different sectors hold the view that the government is thinking of this plan with importance considering the growing needs of power in the face of diminishing reserve of gas.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) expressed the hope about setting up an atomic power plant in Bangladesh. The IAEA is encouraging establishment of an atomic power plant for producing electricity which is suitable in the present state of the global climatic condition. It is learnt from different sources that establishment of an atomic power plant with the capacity to produce 600 - 1000 MW electricity will cost 1.50 to 2.0 billion dollars. It will take five years to complete the plant for commissioning into production. Dr. Shafiqul Islam, Chairman, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission holds the view that if electricity is sold at Tk.0.69, the investment will be returned within seven years and it will also be possible to establish another reactor of 1000 MW capacity with the income.
Activities of the government: It is learnt from the Ministry of Science and Information Technology that the government prepared a draft act for atomic energy and have already sent it to IAEA. A mission of IAEA will come to Bangladesh in the next month to see the preliminary steps taken by the government for establishment of an atomic reactor. They will find out the problems and shortcomings and suggest remedial measures to remove the hurdles to the establishment of the reactor. It could be learnt from the sources in the Ministries of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, and Science, Information and Communications Technology that the demand for electricity of the country will stand at 14000 MW in 2015 and it will increase to 42000 MW in 2025. This rate of increase has been determined by calculating the growth rate by 8 per cent per annum. If GDP is calculated at 5.2 per cent, the demand for electricity will be 10,000 MW and it will increase to 20,000 MW in 2025. Scarcity of our gas reserve will start from 2011.
It is suggested that coal should be used as an alternative to gas for producing electricity and total dependence on gas should be minimised shifting a considerable load to coal. The idea is appreciable but in fact, we do not have that much deposit of coal to the meet the growing needs. Moreover, easy investment facility is also not there in this sector like others. It appears from a survey report that the cost per KWH of atomic energy-based electricity will be Tk.0.63 including profit margin, until it reaches the consumers. The cost of setting a second atomic reactor with capacity of 600 - 1000 MW will be much less than the first reactor of the same capacity. The French occupied the first place in the world for producing atomic energy-based electricity. In France per KWH atomic energy-based electricity costs only 2.54 cent. According to survey conducted by foreign countries, the same amount of electricity from coal costs 3.33 cent and that from gas costs 3.92 cent. In Korea, per KWH of electricity from atomic energy-based power plants costs 4.13 cent, while from the gas-based ones costs 4.15 cent and that from coal-based plants cost 12.39 cent. Bangladesh informed the IAEA of its desire to set up two atomic reactors having a capacity to produce 2000 MW electricity. It is hoped that the implementation of this project will start in 2009.
The IAEA has taken up a technical assistance project to assist Bangladesh in setting up the atomic reactor. They will extend cooperation for development of human resource, management control system and infrastructural facilities for establishment of atomic reactors. They will also conduct two training courses, each of three months' duration in Bangladesh. A representative body of Bangladesh visited the head office of the IAEA in May last. During their visit the IAEA gave hope to extend necessary cooperation for the project for peaceful use of atomic energy. But the site safety report has not been updated. Although we have an Act framed in 1993 for atomic security and radiation control, still a comprehensive Act and a separate controlling authority is required to be formed. The Atomic Energy Commission has, however, made a good progress in this respect. The Technical Assistance Committee of IAEA is now preparing the specimen tender documents for inviting tender for the purpose of setting up atomic reactors. Bangladesh had already signed five Memoranda of Understanding with the IAEA giving assurance for peaceful use of atomic energy during the period from 1979 to 2001.
Activities history: Besides the above, Bangladesh signed Memorandum of Understanding with United States of America in 1981 and 2003, with Italy in 2000 and with China in 2005 for peaceful use of atomic energy and for scientific and- technical assistance. Bangladesh also entered into five conventions prohibiting making of atomic weapons, test launching of any atomic weapons and its misuse by any miscreant.
Dr. Shafiqul Islam Bhuiyan, Chairman, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission said that there is no international legal bar for implementation of Rooppur Atomic Energy-based power project for producing electricity. He further informed of our willingness to establish atomic reactor for producing electricity to overcome the tremendous shortage of electricity of the country. The IAEA has already given us assurance for extending all necessary cooperation for providing technical assistance for the purpose. They are also giving technical and financial assistance in some areas. We have got essential manpower to set up a reactor. We are now capable enough to establish atomic reactor and run its management.
It is known that although agreement is signed with the IAEA ensuring peaceful use of atomic energy but reliability in this regard is most important. The issue is very sensitive to the neighbouring countries possessing nuclear power. It is learnt that Korea, Russia and France are willing to extend necessary assistance but delay is caused by Bangladesh in completing all necessary formalities for the purpose. During Chief Adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's recent visit to Beijing, China once again showed keen interest in setting up an atomic reactor and for that we should take immediate necessary measures.
Atomic power plants in different countries: At present Bangladesh has the capacity to produce only 4, 000 MW electricity. According to the views of the scientists of Atomic Energy Commission, there is no alternative to atomic reactor to meet the growing need for electricity in the country. If it is assumed that only 165 KWH electricity is consumed per head per annum in Bangladesh, then only 40 per cent of the total population comes under this facility. In France 80 per cent of the total demand of electricity is met by atomic energy-based power plant. There are 59 atomic reactors in France.
There are as many as 439 reactors of this kind in the world. Of them, 136 are in the continent of Asia. Another 33 are under construction in different countries, India has 17 atomic reactors. Total production of electricity from these reactors is 4120 MW per day.
Another six reactors are under construction. In Pakistan, two reactors are in production which are generating 425 MW electricity. Three more reactors are under construction. A big First Breeder Reactor having capacity to produce 500 MW electricity is being constructed at Kalbakrarn in Madras of India which at present exists only in France.
Progressive planning: The planning for establishment of Atomic Energy-based power plant at Rooppur of Ishwardi was taken up in 1961. 292 acres of land was also acquired for the purpose. Survey for financial viability was conducted five times and the project was recommended as economically viable and profitable. During the Pakistan period, decision was taken to set up a plant with capacity of 70 MW. In 1966 a decision was taken for a establishing a 140 MW plant. In 1969, the proposal was enhanced to 200 MW. After liberation in 1980, a decision was taken to implement the project for producing 125 MW electricity.
Measures required to be taken: It appears from an analysis of the above facts that for industrialisation and leading the country towards prosperity, there is no alternative to developing fuel. Decisions were taken to establish the atomic energy centre at different times-in 1961, 1963, 1964, 1969 and finally in 1980. But no effective measure was taken to implement the project.
Against this backdrop, the measures to be taken now are:
1. The decision for establishment of atomic energy-based power plant should be implemented on priority basis. For this purpose, a high-powered committee at national level should be formed.
2. The government should not sit idle entrusting only the secretaries of the ministries with the total responsibility.
The head of government should 'take proper initiative at the national level to implement the decision on a top priority basis.
3. National election will be held on December 18 and a new government will be in power. The newly elected government has to be alert about the implementation of the decision at national level. This should be included in the election manifesto of the political parties with clear declaration for setting up of atomic energy-based power plant.
4. Instead of taking a plan for only 1000 MW, planning should be made for establishing a 1000 MW plant at the first phase and subsequently for 1500 MW to meet the growing needs.
Progressive plan should be taken, because demand for electricity is increasing by 8.0 per cent per annum and establishment of new gas-based power plant is becoming uncertain as the reserve of gas is dwindling fast.
The writer is Chairman, Eastern University