Obama export goals may be hard to achieve, say analysts
Saturday, 30 January 2010
WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (AFP): President Barack Obama's aim of doubling US exports within five years is an ambitious goal that will be hard to achieve without a broad effort to bring down trade barriers, analysts say.
Obama's initiative announced in his State of the Union speech would require sustained export growth of some 15 percent, which has not been achieved since the period of 1976-81.
The United States is the world's third largest exporter, having lost the number one spot to Germany in the 1990s, with China expected to rank first in 2009.
US exports have been falling during the global economic crisis, although a weaker dollar has helped limit the losses. Overall exports for 2009 are likely to have dropped by at least 15 percent, with full-year data expected in early February.
Still, Obama's effort drew praise from many business leaders. "The president's proposal to double US exports over the next five years and in turn create two million jobs will in part hinge on whether the United States can open new markets," said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.
Reinsch said much will depend on "a successful outcome" to the Doha Round of global trade talks, and ratification of free- trade agreements (FTAs) with Colombia, Panama, South Korea and others.
The Doha Round of talks under the World Trade Organization has been stalled for years over differences among key trading blocs, with some blaming Washington for its stance.
Obama said the United States "will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, Panama, and Colombia" but did not explicitly call for Congress to ratify trade treaties with the three countries.
Obama's initiative announced in his State of the Union speech would require sustained export growth of some 15 percent, which has not been achieved since the period of 1976-81.
The United States is the world's third largest exporter, having lost the number one spot to Germany in the 1990s, with China expected to rank first in 2009.
US exports have been falling during the global economic crisis, although a weaker dollar has helped limit the losses. Overall exports for 2009 are likely to have dropped by at least 15 percent, with full-year data expected in early February.
Still, Obama's effort drew praise from many business leaders. "The president's proposal to double US exports over the next five years and in turn create two million jobs will in part hinge on whether the United States can open new markets," said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.
Reinsch said much will depend on "a successful outcome" to the Doha Round of global trade talks, and ratification of free- trade agreements (FTAs) with Colombia, Panama, South Korea and others.
The Doha Round of talks under the World Trade Organization has been stalled for years over differences among key trading blocs, with some blaming Washington for its stance.
Obama said the United States "will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, Panama, and Colombia" but did not explicitly call for Congress to ratify trade treaties with the three countries.