Obama hopes high-risk foreign trip closes stature gap
John Whitesides | Saturday, 19 July 2008
US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's overseas trip will be a high-risk debut on the world stage-with the potential pitfalls at least as numerous as the likely rewards.
Obama's journey to Europe, the Middle East, Iraq and Afghanistan is meant to prove he can credibly navigate the world of international diplomacy and fill the role of U.S. commander in chief, answering critics who say he is too inexperienced for the task.
But a significant gaffe or misstep will only underscore that criticism and bolster Republican rival John McCain's argument that the first-term senator from Illinois is a risky choice for the White House.
"It is a high-stakes trip, but it's one Obama needs to take," said Cal Jillson, a political analyst at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas.
"He has to address the question of whether he is prepared to be president when it comes to national security and foreign policy issues," he said. "It is a big hurdle for him."
The upcoming trip-exact dates have not been made public for security reasons-comes less than four months before the Nov. 4 presidential election. Obama's rival McCain, a four-term Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who was also a U.S. representative, has highlighted his military and foreign policy credentials.
Opinion polls show significant doubts remain about the world affairs experience of Obama, who has been in the U.S. senate since 2005. Nearly half of voters in a Washington Post/ABC survey this week said his lack of experience would hamper his ability to serve as president.
McCain, 71, was judged to have greater knowledge of the world by a margin of more than 2 to 1, and held an edge on Obama, 46, on his ability to deal with an unexpected major crisis or battle terrorism.
"Obama is not going to get elected because of foreign policy, but he sure can be defeated because of it," said Democratic consultant Doug Schoen. "He has to close the stature gap."
Obama was in part goaded into the visits to Iraq and Afghanistan by McCain, who repeatedly criticized him for failing to see conditions on the ground in Iraq for himself.
Obama, who has called for the removal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, made his only trip to Iraq in January 2006 and has never been to Afghanistan. McCain was in Iraq in March and has visited there eight times.
OBAMA IN EUROPE
Obama's advisers hope the visits to France, Germany and Britain, where Obama is wildly popular, will send warm images back home and emphasize the Illinois senator's ability to restore sagging U.S. popularity in Europe.
The stops in London, Paris and Berlin will give him an opportunity to renew his promises of a more open approach to diplomacy and highlight the end of the policies of unpopular President George W. Bush.
The visits to Israel and Jordan also will give Obama an opening to discuss Bush's failures in that region. The Israeli stop could help Obama make inroads among some Jewish voters, who have been wary of his candidacy.
But the intricacies of Middle East politics highlight the dangers for Obama. He attracted attention in June when he told a pro-Israeli lobby group that Jerusalem must remain Israel's undivided capital-only to amend his stance the next day to say the issue should be negotiated by all parties.
"When he gets to the Middle East, it is very complicated and very easy to misspeak," Jillson said. "Once you are over there talking about it all day, the probability of some sort of slip is relatively high. The question is whether it seems consequential."
The major U.S. television networks will send their anchors and cable networks will offer heavy coverage, raising the stakes even higher for Obama.
McCain and his campaign will be anxious to pounce on every perceived misstep. McCain has done plenty of his own travel, visiting Colombia and Mexico this month and Iraq earlier in the year on trips that drew far less public attention.
While the mere act of taking the trip highlights Obama's relative lack of experience, most analysts said it was a risk worth taking.
"He has to demonstrate that he is more than just a glamourous candidate, he's a serious potential president," said Republican consultant Rich Galen.
"If people go into the voting booth in November and they are still asking whether Obama can be trusted in a dangerous world, then McCain is going to win," he said.
Obama's journey to Europe, the Middle East, Iraq and Afghanistan is meant to prove he can credibly navigate the world of international diplomacy and fill the role of U.S. commander in chief, answering critics who say he is too inexperienced for the task.
But a significant gaffe or misstep will only underscore that criticism and bolster Republican rival John McCain's argument that the first-term senator from Illinois is a risky choice for the White House.
"It is a high-stakes trip, but it's one Obama needs to take," said Cal Jillson, a political analyst at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas.
"He has to address the question of whether he is prepared to be president when it comes to national security and foreign policy issues," he said. "It is a big hurdle for him."
The upcoming trip-exact dates have not been made public for security reasons-comes less than four months before the Nov. 4 presidential election. Obama's rival McCain, a four-term Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who was also a U.S. representative, has highlighted his military and foreign policy credentials.
Opinion polls show significant doubts remain about the world affairs experience of Obama, who has been in the U.S. senate since 2005. Nearly half of voters in a Washington Post/ABC survey this week said his lack of experience would hamper his ability to serve as president.
McCain, 71, was judged to have greater knowledge of the world by a margin of more than 2 to 1, and held an edge on Obama, 46, on his ability to deal with an unexpected major crisis or battle terrorism.
"Obama is not going to get elected because of foreign policy, but he sure can be defeated because of it," said Democratic consultant Doug Schoen. "He has to close the stature gap."
Obama was in part goaded into the visits to Iraq and Afghanistan by McCain, who repeatedly criticized him for failing to see conditions on the ground in Iraq for himself.
Obama, who has called for the removal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, made his only trip to Iraq in January 2006 and has never been to Afghanistan. McCain was in Iraq in March and has visited there eight times.
OBAMA IN EUROPE
Obama's advisers hope the visits to France, Germany and Britain, where Obama is wildly popular, will send warm images back home and emphasize the Illinois senator's ability to restore sagging U.S. popularity in Europe.
The stops in London, Paris and Berlin will give him an opportunity to renew his promises of a more open approach to diplomacy and highlight the end of the policies of unpopular President George W. Bush.
The visits to Israel and Jordan also will give Obama an opening to discuss Bush's failures in that region. The Israeli stop could help Obama make inroads among some Jewish voters, who have been wary of his candidacy.
But the intricacies of Middle East politics highlight the dangers for Obama. He attracted attention in June when he told a pro-Israeli lobby group that Jerusalem must remain Israel's undivided capital-only to amend his stance the next day to say the issue should be negotiated by all parties.
"When he gets to the Middle East, it is very complicated and very easy to misspeak," Jillson said. "Once you are over there talking about it all day, the probability of some sort of slip is relatively high. The question is whether it seems consequential."
The major U.S. television networks will send their anchors and cable networks will offer heavy coverage, raising the stakes even higher for Obama.
McCain and his campaign will be anxious to pounce on every perceived misstep. McCain has done plenty of his own travel, visiting Colombia and Mexico this month and Iraq earlier in the year on trips that drew far less public attention.
While the mere act of taking the trip highlights Obama's relative lack of experience, most analysts said it was a risk worth taking.
"He has to demonstrate that he is more than just a glamourous candidate, he's a serious potential president," said Republican consultant Rich Galen.
"If people go into the voting booth in November and they are still asking whether Obama can be trusted in a dangerous world, then McCain is going to win," he said.