Obama to tackle jobs as priority ahead of 2010 midterms
Saturday, 26 December 2009
As U.S. President Barack Obama wraps up an eventful inaugural year in office, November midterm elections loom on the horizon and will provide the backdrop for the White House and the Democratic Party to convince voters of tangible success, especially on economic recovery.
Early criticisms that Obama was attempting to solve too mny problems at once has faded, though a number of issues have remained under heavy focus.
The economic meltdown that struck before the election last fall has been tied to nearly every White House action this year, with legislation like healthcare reform, at least rhetorically, linked to job creation, debt and deficit reduction and financial reform.
According to the White House, healthcare expenditures make up almost one-fifth of the U.S. gross domestic product -- one reason Obama cited for reforming the healthcare system as his top legislative priority in his first year in office.
As the deadline for the passage of the healthcare reform bill has repeatedly been pushed back and the Senate convened an unusual Christmas Eve session to pass its version of the bill, the White House is hopeful about signing the healthcare legislation early next year and claim a critical victory -- even though, as American University political historian Allan Lichtman notes, the bill's effects will take years to be judged fairly.
''Who knows if it's any good or not,'' Lichtman said of the final bill, which will be created in a conference session that will merge the House of Representatives and the Senate bills. ''But rhetorically, he can say, 'We've fulfilled a promise.'''
Obama also spent most of 2009 developing a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which, together with spending on the Iraq War, is another drain on the U.S. economy.
His long-awaited policy speech was received with mixed reviews -- especially over a somewhat arbitrary July 2011 ''transition point'' for troop withdrawal meant to satisfy his war-weary political base. A surge of an additional 30,000 U.S. troops is set to be deployed to the Afghan region early in 2010.
In accepting the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Obama outlined his approach to war as pragmatic realism, winning bipartisan approval for his explanation of how war is ''never glorious'' -- a subtle jab at his predecessor, former President George W. Bush -- but often ''necessary,'' as he has continued to characterize the U.S. fight against terrorists.
In other foreign policy matters, the administration is expected to close a deal with Russia to renew the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty shortly after the New Year.
But the Iranian and North Korean nuclear issues continue to thwart Obama's nonproliferation efforts.
New America Foundation director and foreign policy analyst Steve Clemons said the lack of a new course with Iran is a failure in ''what Obama most needed to achieve early in his tenure,'' and noted that Russian and Chinese resistance to tougher sanctions has weakened U.S. global standing.
Dominating December headlines was the Copenhagen conference on climate change. Although many nations signed on calling for action on the issue, Obama has a tougher fight ahead in pushing for energy legislation in the House and Senate this spring.
But political analysts say the focus in midterm election years is not on the foreign policy front, instead it is always closer to home.
Lichtman notes that even when presidents have cited foreign policy successes -- as former President George H.W. Bush did after a swift and successful Gulf War in the early 1990s -- economic stagnation prevented his reelection.
''If you look at the recent history of elections, foreign policy either hasn't helped or has hurt,'' Lichtman said. ''Obama would be very happy if it was neutral.''
With all eyes on the economy, the White House will be eager to report resumed GDP growth in the U.S. economy. So far, that growth is at a sluggish pace and unemployment continues to hover in double digits.
In an effort to better connect with individual Americans, the White House has begun to shift the focus on jobs as a top priority. Obama is expected to emphasize fresh efforts for job creation in his State of the Union address, which is not yet scheduled but expected to be delivered before Congress in late January or early February.
Bruce Buchanan, professor of presidential politics at the University of Texas, said he approves of Obama's apparent shift toward jobs, but anticipates that the president will struggle to keep that message at the forefront amid other issues.
''All you can do is use the bully pulpit consistently, and that's difficult in a situation where you've got so many other things going on to cloud public attention,'' Buchanan said.
Despite unusually low approval ratings, the White House is not alone in waving off negative conclusions from such reports.
The Gallup organization, which historically tracks presidential approval ratings, concludes that Obama's 50 percent December average is the second-lowest of first-year presidents since 1953. But those with comparable low showings (Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton) also had inherited a struggling economy in each of their first years in office.
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, in an early-December briefing with reporters, compared charts of day-to-day polling to lines that ''a six-year-old with a crayon'' might draw.
While the White House continues to shrug off short-term polls, next fall's elections could provide a better measure of American satisfaction with the young president.
Midterm elections typically portend congressional losses for the president's party. The White House must aim to retain as many seats as possible in order to preserve the majorities in the House and the Senate to push its legislative agenda. --istockAnalyst.com
Early criticisms that Obama was attempting to solve too mny problems at once has faded, though a number of issues have remained under heavy focus.
The economic meltdown that struck before the election last fall has been tied to nearly every White House action this year, with legislation like healthcare reform, at least rhetorically, linked to job creation, debt and deficit reduction and financial reform.
According to the White House, healthcare expenditures make up almost one-fifth of the U.S. gross domestic product -- one reason Obama cited for reforming the healthcare system as his top legislative priority in his first year in office.
As the deadline for the passage of the healthcare reform bill has repeatedly been pushed back and the Senate convened an unusual Christmas Eve session to pass its version of the bill, the White House is hopeful about signing the healthcare legislation early next year and claim a critical victory -- even though, as American University political historian Allan Lichtman notes, the bill's effects will take years to be judged fairly.
''Who knows if it's any good or not,'' Lichtman said of the final bill, which will be created in a conference session that will merge the House of Representatives and the Senate bills. ''But rhetorically, he can say, 'We've fulfilled a promise.'''
Obama also spent most of 2009 developing a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which, together with spending on the Iraq War, is another drain on the U.S. economy.
His long-awaited policy speech was received with mixed reviews -- especially over a somewhat arbitrary July 2011 ''transition point'' for troop withdrawal meant to satisfy his war-weary political base. A surge of an additional 30,000 U.S. troops is set to be deployed to the Afghan region early in 2010.
In accepting the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Obama outlined his approach to war as pragmatic realism, winning bipartisan approval for his explanation of how war is ''never glorious'' -- a subtle jab at his predecessor, former President George W. Bush -- but often ''necessary,'' as he has continued to characterize the U.S. fight against terrorists.
In other foreign policy matters, the administration is expected to close a deal with Russia to renew the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty shortly after the New Year.
But the Iranian and North Korean nuclear issues continue to thwart Obama's nonproliferation efforts.
New America Foundation director and foreign policy analyst Steve Clemons said the lack of a new course with Iran is a failure in ''what Obama most needed to achieve early in his tenure,'' and noted that Russian and Chinese resistance to tougher sanctions has weakened U.S. global standing.
Dominating December headlines was the Copenhagen conference on climate change. Although many nations signed on calling for action on the issue, Obama has a tougher fight ahead in pushing for energy legislation in the House and Senate this spring.
But political analysts say the focus in midterm election years is not on the foreign policy front, instead it is always closer to home.
Lichtman notes that even when presidents have cited foreign policy successes -- as former President George H.W. Bush did after a swift and successful Gulf War in the early 1990s -- economic stagnation prevented his reelection.
''If you look at the recent history of elections, foreign policy either hasn't helped or has hurt,'' Lichtman said. ''Obama would be very happy if it was neutral.''
With all eyes on the economy, the White House will be eager to report resumed GDP growth in the U.S. economy. So far, that growth is at a sluggish pace and unemployment continues to hover in double digits.
In an effort to better connect with individual Americans, the White House has begun to shift the focus on jobs as a top priority. Obama is expected to emphasize fresh efforts for job creation in his State of the Union address, which is not yet scheduled but expected to be delivered before Congress in late January or early February.
Bruce Buchanan, professor of presidential politics at the University of Texas, said he approves of Obama's apparent shift toward jobs, but anticipates that the president will struggle to keep that message at the forefront amid other issues.
''All you can do is use the bully pulpit consistently, and that's difficult in a situation where you've got so many other things going on to cloud public attention,'' Buchanan said.
Despite unusually low approval ratings, the White House is not alone in waving off negative conclusions from such reports.
The Gallup organization, which historically tracks presidential approval ratings, concludes that Obama's 50 percent December average is the second-lowest of first-year presidents since 1953. But those with comparable low showings (Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton) also had inherited a struggling economy in each of their first years in office.
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, in an early-December briefing with reporters, compared charts of day-to-day polling to lines that ''a six-year-old with a crayon'' might draw.
While the White House continues to shrug off short-term polls, next fall's elections could provide a better measure of American satisfaction with the young president.
Midterm elections typically portend congressional losses for the president's party. The White House must aim to retain as many seats as possible in order to preserve the majorities in the House and the Senate to push its legislative agenda. --istockAnalyst.com