On Wang Yi\\\'s visit to Bangladesh

The recent (December 27-29, 2014) visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Bangladesh was an important one not just in terms of Bangladesh's relations with the world's number 2 economic power but also in terms of its impact on its perilous domestic politics.
The Chinese Foreign Minister held official consultations with his counterpart, the Bangladesh Foreign Minister AH Mahmud Ali. The discussions left little doubt about China's interest in strengthening relations with Bangladesh. In that context, the celebrations of the 40th year of the establishment of Bangladesh-China relations that will coincide in 2015 were discussed. The two Foreign Ministers expressed deep interest to celebrate the year befittingly. China also responded positively to Bangladesh's proposal to build the Chittagong-Kunming road link via Cox's Bazaar and Myanmar that, if realised, would be an economic infrastructure project of tremendous potential to Bangladesh.
The two Foreign Ministers also reviewed China's existing offer to invest US$ 4.0 billion in six projects that include a multi-lane tunnel under the Karnaphuli and a second bridge over the Karnaphuli. Bangladesh showed interest to benefit from the Chinese decision to invest US$ 30 billion and provide US$ 20 billion in loans to countries in South Asia over the next five years.  In order to benefit from China's interest in South Asia, Bangladesh offered to China an exclusive economic zone.  The Chinese Foreign Minister expressed positive response to Bangladesh's interest in China's economic focus in South Asia in general and Bangladesh in particular.
The importance of the economic issues discussed and their possible positive impact on bilateral relations notwithstanding,  there was a lot lacking during Wang Yi's visit that were present when the Prime Minister of Bangladesh had visited Beijing in June last year. In that very high profile visit, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had committed Bangladesh to stand behind China's leadership for taking Asia to the world stage. In addition she had also discussed the possibility of giving to China the financing and building the hugely important Sonadia deep-sea port and had  enthusiastically spoken about the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) as an initiative that would economically integrate the region with Bangladesh as its hub. China was ecstatic with the offers because, if realised, these offers would give China a stronghold in a region of tremendous strategic value to it. However, these issues were in the backburner during the Chinese Foreign Minister's visit. The AL-led government, while making the offers to China, did not possibly take into account India's sensibilities on these issues.
In the days leading to the January 05 elections, China did not support the Awami League-led government's decision to hold the national elections without the main opposition parties, the BNP in particular. However, when the elections were held and Bangladesh's major development partners including the United States, the European Union and the United Nations had expressed their concern over it, China made a volte-face. It expressed its whole-hearted preparedness to deal with the new AL-led government like business as usual.
China's offer to do so was a life saver for the AL-led government because it came at a time when it was desperate for positive reaction from abroad on the January 05 elections. China was quick to assess that if it nurtured the desperation of the AL-government for international recognition, it would find the latter ready to support its strategic objectives in the region to emerge as the undisputed leader in South Asia. China also was aware that such encouragement would enhance its already dominant role in Bangladesh as a market for its economic and commercial products together with strengthening its status as Bangladesh's main supplier of arms and armaments. Thus China did not waste time and had invited Sheikh Hasina to Beijing.
There Sheikh Hasina literally sang music into the Chinese ears. But this seems to have created the opposite reaction in New Delhi.  The new  BJP-led Indian government was particularly concerned with the possibility that the AL-led government could give China the green signal to build the Sonadia deep-sea port that would allow it a strong foothold in the mouth of the Bay of Bengal close to its strategically important but politically/economically fragile Seven Sisters. The new Indian government also developed cold feet on the BCIM-EC on which the Congress was positive because it believed that the initiative would provide China easy land access to the Seven Sisters. The BJP government was also concerned with Bangladesh's purchase of two Chinese submarines as well as its commitment to buy more arms from China.
Apart from New Delhi's security concerns arising from the promises Sheikh Hasina made in Beijing, those promises ran contrary to where India and the United States are coming together, namely to have a strong hold on the sea lane through which China gets  steady energy supplies from the Middle East.  In that strategy, the US-India strategic planners would like to have a regime in Bangladesh that is with it and not with China. Japan's offer to build the 1200-MW coal-fired power plant in Cox's Bazar at a cost of US$ 3.7 billion has run against the strategic offers that Sheikh Hasina had made to China.
After the Prime Minister returned from China, the AL-led government possibly realised that China, its emerging stature in world politics notwithstanding, did not either have the ability to muster the sort of support internationally for it on the legitimacy issue or the influence in domestic politics.
The AL-led government will obviously be unable to deliver the strategic promises Sheikh Hasina had made in Beijing.  Thus the Chinese Foreign Minister met the BNP leader Begum Khaleda Zia at her residence. The meeting with Begum Zia was apparently to reassure her that Beijing has not abandoned the BNP. The call at that meeting for dialogue between the mainstream parties for political stability was a subtle message to the AL-led government that it does not have Beijing's unequivocal support in Bangladesh's partisan politics.
The above notwithstanding, the Chinese Foreign Minister's visit underlined that  Bangladesh-China relations are on a firm track on a wide range of economic issues where Bangladesh can look forward to more Chinese assistance and investment. Nevertheless, it was a visit out of which, in Bangladesh's partisan politics, the ruling party was left with less to feel happy and the BNP with good reasons to smile.

The writer is a former Ambassador. [email protected]