One Belt and One Road, BCIM and regional connectivity

Chinese President XI Jinping's brain child massive 'One Belt and One Road' (OBOR) initiative which seeks to connect China with Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America to eventually touch about 65 countries with about 70 percent of the world's population. Xi's official visit to Bangladesh in mid October was essentially linked to accelerate the 'OBOR's key development agenda. The visit was first by a Chinese President in 30 years since Li Xiannian's visit in 1986. By all indications, Xi Jinping has succeeded in his endeavour.
An influential Dhaka English-language daily in its editorial comment has described the visit's outcome "as a game changer in South and Southeast Asia" and the close ties between China and Bangladesh "can be a positive factor for promoting peace, stability and development for the well-being of the peoples in the region at large." It further opined that the decision to elevate "China-Bangladesh relations from a Closer Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation to a Strategic Partnership of Cooperation" was the "most important outcome of the visit."
A statement issued after the talks between Chinese President Xi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said: "They agreed to establish and expedite the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor (BCIMEC) and increase communication and coordination in international and regional issues concerning shared interests." In the process, China signed as many as 29 agreements and memorandum of understanding (MoUs) including some mega projects involving an unprecedented amount of about $24 billion.
President Xi and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, soon after witnessing the signing of 27 agreements and MoUs, together unveiled plaques of six projects - two of them are the Karnaphuli River Tunnel and the Chinese Special Economic and Industrial Zone (CSEIZ) in Chittagong. The instruments cover among other things, such as trade and investment, blue economy, BCIMEC, roads and bridges, railways, power, maritime, ICT, industrial production, capacity building and skill development.
FRUITS OF REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY AND INVESTMENT: Bangladesh economy has been growing at around six percent for the last one decade or more, despite political despondency and lack of pluralism. Its leaders have been aspiring lately to become a sub-regional trading hub and know well that it can only happen if required and balanced infrastructure is developed. This is also necessary for any type of investment. The Chinese, having spent thousands of billions of dollar in developing infrastructure in their own country and harvesting rich dividends out it, seemed to have spotted the scope and potential for investment in Bangladesh in this area.
China has modernized its vast railway systems and expanded widely, establishing direct railway and road connectivity throughout the vast country. Modern and all weather railway connectivity has been established between Beijing and Tibetan capital Lhasa. This route is likely to be extended up to Nepal's border. Reports say that in September this year, a cargo train has completed its first trip from China to Afghanistan. Early last year, similarly a cargo train reached Iran from China. Yet another such railway between Iran and Azerbaijan is nearing completion. What is more interesting, the US-based McKensey Global Institute in a study says as many as 39 railway networks between China and Europe have become operational.
According to the study, Russia welcomed Xi Jinping's initiative and also suggested the OBOR initiative to link up with Russian sponsored Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Besides, Russia also wants to establish increased connectivity with Azerbaijan, Iran and India through the North-South Transport Corridor. Such connectivity helps expansion of business and trade and the rising volume of trade, shorter route and multiple connectivity also help cut costs substantially.
The latest China-Bangladesh deal can be compared with another game changing Chinese agreement with Pakistan last year when Xi Jinping visited the country offering a whopping $46 billion to develop China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This amount is said to be nearly four times of the Marshall Plan bankrolled by the US to revamp the development of the war devastated Western Europe after WWII.
The CPEC has been linked with China's underdeveloped Xinjiang province's development. In fact, it is vital for both and the fruits of development and peace (without which its progress would be in jeopardy) could be progressively enjoyed by other countries in the neighbourhood. Analysts have suggested CPEC's successful implementation depends on one major factor - its ability to tackle the security threats from the Islamic extremists that thrives with encouragement from within and without. So, tackling security requires active cooperation from its neighbours who in turn stand to gain from the fruits of CPEC's success.
In normal times, this could have been a welcome recipe for the countries in the region as a win-win situation. However, big power rivalries for global influence and some other regional players' country-specific geopolitical ambition and strategic interests cannot always be fathomed and equated in simple mathematical calculations.
BIMSTEC, BCIMEC, OBOR & BANGLADESH: The outpouring of exuberance about the potential of BIMSTEC shown by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China and India) summit he hosted at Goa by totally ignoring BCIMEC as well as SAARC did not cut much ice. In fact, Modi took the initiative to invite BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) members including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand to attend an outreach meeting in Goa in the sideline of BRIC summit bypassing SAARC to isolate Pakistan in the region because of their vexed bilateral problem over Kashmir dispute that defied solution since 1948.
He succeeded in ignoring and to some extent isolating Pakistan at the BRIC summit, but failed to include their bilateral problem and Pakistan's alleged terrorist-supporting role it the BRIC's Goa Declaration. Modi was visibly disappointed and Indian media, while generally supportive of Modi, poured scorn on the BRIC leaders from Russia and Brazil for towing the China line.  Ambassador M. K Bhadrakumar, a retired Indian diplomat and well known strategic and security analyst, was critical of the Modi move from the beginning. He said: "Regional groupings built on such zero-sum mindset in the era of globalization have limited future. Regional groupings thrive only if they are willing to be inclusive."
Modi may have a point in trying to isolate Pakistan for its intransigence and hostility toward India, but he should have realised that SAARC, established over 30 year ago, failed to make its mark because of what Bhadrakumar says having built on "zero-sum mindset" by two of its important members - India and Pakistan - for refusing to settle the Kashmir dispute. It really hurts that because of zero-sum mindset of some past and present leaders and the UN's ambivalent attitude towards sorting out a toxic dispute that defied solution for long 68 years is actually holding the future of 1.5 billion people of the region to ransom.
However, Modi's strategy to promote BIMSTEC as the pivot for regional economic development minus China was a mistake. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar and even Bangladesh - each has established deeper economic ties with Beijing and for them to drop China at the behest of India was a difficult choice. Besides, BIMSTEC has yet to prove itself as a viable grouping, the sudden Indian interest and backing notwithstanding.
Another negative mindset of the Indian leaders about China's 'Road and Belt' initiative which they firmly believe will advance Beijing's influence in the region at Delhi's expense. The same mindset has also persuaded the Indian leaders to cool their attitude toward BCIMEC and promote BIBM grouping - with Bangladesh, India, Bhutan and Nepal - whose success would obviously depend entirely on Delhi's whim.
It will be interesting to note that Nepal's immediate past government of Prime Minister KP Oli had committed to participate in the OBOR network. However, Nepal's new 'realist' Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda has not repudiated Oli's commitment but has also reportedly claimed to have offered Modi to make his country as a "bridge between China and South Asia including India". Modi's response to this is unknown and the sceptics are doubtful.
BCIMEC, K2K CONNECTIVITY AND BANGLADESH: Nepal's Prime Minister Prachanda trying to maintain equidistance between its two giant neighbours. India is allergic to OBOR, Nepal is not but it is trying to improve ties with Delhi for obvious reason. During former Nepali PM KP Oli's visit to China last March, the two countries signed transit transshipment agreement (TTA) to pave the way for either country to use each other's territory for third country trade. A Xinhua report from Kathmandu said in late October that Nepal government has suggested China to finalise the protocol for effecting the TTA in early November. More details are lacking.
While negotiating BCIMEC details, China had suggested at one stage last year to establish K2K route for establishing wider connectivity between the four countries. The route, Kunming-Ruili-Bhamo-Lashio-Mandalaya-Tamu-Imphal-Sylhet-Dhaka-Kolkata should be acceptable to India because it offers an excellent opportunity to trade its goods with all the member countries and beyond. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Hasina agreed to "establish BCIM economic corridor and increase communication on international and regional issues of shared interests."
This offers, indeed, a very lucrative trade route for Bangladesh because Dhaka has for long been interested to establish connectivity to China's Yunnan province. Direct air route between Kunming and Dhaka has been established for some years now but so far only two Chinese airlines were operating in the route. Now Bangladesh Biman has agreed to operate to Kunming soon. The K2K route should serve all the four countries equally well but to be able to get the full benefit of the route all the four member countries have to work in unison.
Empirical studies have proved that countries with connectivity and access to global flows of trade and finance and movement of people tend grow 40 per cent more than the less connected ones. This is the correct way for Bangladesh to try and develop wider connectivity with other countries whenever an opportunity crops up. For example, Bangladesh should try to follow up the K2K route proposal as part of the BCIM economic corridor with right earnest because it would not only open up physical connectivity with Myanmar and China, but through Myanmar it would open up the possibilities to reach out to Myanmar's immediate neighbours, specially Thailand.
In fact, the Bay of Bengal Initiative was first proposed by a former Thai Prime Minister following the 2008 economic meltdown in Asia in his bid to expand economic ties with Bangladesh. Subsequently, in its bid to promote 'Look East' policy, Indian joined later. But that is another story.
Syed Kamaluddin is a Senior Journalist. He can be reached at: [email protected]