OPEC lowers oil market forecast again
Thursday, 18 September 2008
VIENNA, Sept. 17 (Xinhua): The demand of crude oil on the international market is estimated to be 86.80 million barrels per day for 2008 and 87.70 mb/d for 2009, said the September monthly report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday.
These figures are 0.1 mb/d lower respectively than OPEC's August monthly report, which means OPEC has lowered its forecast on the demand for crude oil for consecutively six times this year.
The OPEC report considered the weakening US economy as the main reason for modifying this forecast. The US economy is estimated to realize a growth of only 1.02 per cent this year, instead of the formerly estimated 1.18 per cent, and 1 per cent for next year, instead of 1.03 per cent.
The U.S. is the most main consumer of crude oil in the world, whose economic downturn would definitely lead to declining demand of crude oil. Moreover, the obviously over-priced crude oil on the international market has hindered crude oil consumption to some extent.
The report also pointed out that the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has also lowered its forecast of the world economic growth of 2008 from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent, and the financial turmoil due to bankruptcy of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers' might further weaken the impetus for American and even international economic growth. Therefore, OPEC might further modify its market forecast.
The report also estimated the crude oil production of non- OPEC countries to be an average of 49.90 mb/d in 2008, reaching 50.81 mb/d in 2009. The international crude oil market would need an average of 32.00 mb/d crude oil from OPEC member countries in this year, and 0.16 mb/d more than last year.
The decision of a crude oil production cut made by the Ministerial Conference of OPEC on September 10 has shown no evident effect on preventing oil prices from further falling. The average prices of OPEC dropped to 91.35 US dollars per barrel on Monday, said the Vienna-based cartel Tuesday.
These figures are 0.1 mb/d lower respectively than OPEC's August monthly report, which means OPEC has lowered its forecast on the demand for crude oil for consecutively six times this year.
The OPEC report considered the weakening US economy as the main reason for modifying this forecast. The US economy is estimated to realize a growth of only 1.02 per cent this year, instead of the formerly estimated 1.18 per cent, and 1 per cent for next year, instead of 1.03 per cent.
The U.S. is the most main consumer of crude oil in the world, whose economic downturn would definitely lead to declining demand of crude oil. Moreover, the obviously over-priced crude oil on the international market has hindered crude oil consumption to some extent.
The report also pointed out that the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has also lowered its forecast of the world economic growth of 2008 from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent, and the financial turmoil due to bankruptcy of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers' might further weaken the impetus for American and even international economic growth. Therefore, OPEC might further modify its market forecast.
The report also estimated the crude oil production of non- OPEC countries to be an average of 49.90 mb/d in 2008, reaching 50.81 mb/d in 2009. The international crude oil market would need an average of 32.00 mb/d crude oil from OPEC member countries in this year, and 0.16 mb/d more than last year.
The decision of a crude oil production cut made by the Ministerial Conference of OPEC on September 10 has shown no evident effect on preventing oil prices from further falling. The average prices of OPEC dropped to 91.35 US dollars per barrel on Monday, said the Vienna-based cartel Tuesday.