Pakistan suffers as political crisis continues

No immediate settlement of the crisis in Pakistan centring the month-old sit-in demonstrations in Islamabad at the call of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-insaf (PTI) party and Tahirul Qadri's Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) party seems to be in sight. The arrest of demonstrators prompted   Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to call off their scheduled talks with the government. Interior minister Nisar Ali Khan confirmed the arrests. Many of the detainees have been charged with storming the state-run Pakistan television building a few days ago at the height of the agitation.
Imran and Qadri allege that the government is coming down heavily on their supporters and consequently, the chances of a negotiated resolution of the political problems are becoming increasingly slim.
The government is not bucking under the pressure of the opposition and showing no leniency although it has offered the olive branch of talks to resolve the crisis.
Pakistan has been in the midst of a political turmoil since August 14 last when thousands  of people began sit-in demonstrations in Islamabad under the leadership of Imran and Qadri demanding the resignation of Nawaz  Sharif. At one stage, the agitation looked quite formidable. An impression also gained ground that the powerful army was tacitly backing the anti-government agitation. The armed forces denied such accusation.
The movement seems to have lost much of the steam in the recent days and the government does not seem to be on the slippery ground as much as it was a few days ago. Despite the waning nature of the agitation, the demonstrators are keeping the pot boiling. Few now believes that the days of the government are numbered although nothing can be totally ruled out in Pakistan because of the topsy-turvy character of politics of the country. A lurking fear that the army may intervene in the crisis has evidently weakened, but not fully disappeared.
The cricket-star-turned-politician Imran Khan is spearheading the agitation while a Canada-based cleric Tahirul Qadri is engaged in a parallel anti-government agitation. Both want the government to go.
Imran's party took part in the last year's general elections, bagged 34 seats and secured the third position, only after the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Imran's party, PTI accepted the results - albeit making some allegations of unfairness in the voting. But, now Imran says that the elections were a "big fraud" and that Sharif's party won handsomely through "massive rigging". The polls were held under a non-partisan government and   international observers described the balloting as largely fair.
Tahirul Qadri surfaced in the political scene before the last year's elections, but did not take part in the polls. He is believed to have sizeable following mainly on the religious line. He returned to Pakistan this time and asked his followers to launch the movement against the government, asking it to quit. Many were surprised at the timing of the movement by the two leaders. An impression was created that probably they might have received some encouragement from some quarters. Obviously, the "quarter" could be none other than the army. What reinforced this impression was the relations between the government and the armed forces. Nawaz's relations with the army were not quite cordial during his earlier term as prime minister. Since he returned to power following the polls in May last year, his relations with the army were hardly satisfactory on a variety of reasons including "treason" charges against former president and army strongman General (retd) Pervez Musharraf and Nawaz's readiness to improve ties with India. However, the army has not yet given any vent to its displeasure against the government.
Army chief General Raheel Sharif met the prime minister at the height of the present crisis, fuelling speculations that the army might intervene. The armed forces have stressed on the need for the settlement of the crisis, a position that is viewed as being soft to the agitators. However, the support by the main opposition in parliament, PPP to the government came as a shot in the arm for Nawaz Sharif.
But Pakistan is paying heavily both in political and economic fronts. The presidents of China, Sri Lanka and the Maldives have called off their planned visits to Pakistan for political instability. The postponement of the visit by the country's main ally China has come as a big setback as two countries were set to sign a number of cooperative ventures that would have benefitted Islamabad. The government blames the two opposition parties for this situation while Imran and Qadri seek to turn the table on the authorities. The opposition agitation has not been much mass-based, but it gained momentum because of the non-performance of the Sharif government, which is often accused of incompetence, corruption and nepotism.
It appears that the hardening of government attitude towards the agitators stems from the fact that  the number of the agitators are dwindling and the army also seems to be making a distance from any impression of being sympathetic to the opposition. But neither Imran nor Qadri is in a mood to give up. They insist that the government needs to come into a understanding  with them to end the stand-off. They are not quitting the scene in Islamabad and want to remain in the thick of the game. Backstage efforts are continuing to resume the talks that are unlikely to make much headway. However, politics is something that is not predictable always.
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