Paradigm shift for coping with climate change

Climatic change forms human destiny at large and countries with coastal proximity are in particular destined to pay the most perennially for little fault of their own. Bangladesh is among the most climate vulnerable ones, so its climate cost is being calculated in terms of trillions. The presentation that Dhaka made at the Paris climate summit styled COP 21 or CMP 11 held from November 30 to December 12, 2015 and the discussions thereon and subsequent talks at home unveils massive tasks for managing fallout of global climate change for greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect caused by an increase of gases such as carbon dioxide in the air surrounding the earth, which trap the heat of the sun, is a grave problem of a gradual rise in temperature of the earth's atmosphere. The rising heat causes global warming making erratic changes in global weather patterns. From such global and local discourses and discussions it comes clear that environmental aspect should be an integral part of every development planning and project for sustainability of development by facing upsets being posed by climatic calamity.
So, predictions about incoming natural disasters call for taking up projects exclusively for mitigation of damaging impacts and adaptation to evolving global climatic conditions in every development project proposal in general, has to have a component related to climate. A latest forecast is about weather queen La Nina. If she weeps, the globe, or a particular part of it, is deluged with floods or swept with storms. It is the opposite weather phenomenon of El Nino that brings droughts. The strongest El Nino conditions had wrought havoc in Asia, Australia and parts of the United States in the recent past. An alteration in the opposite is now being forecast by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
An untimely flooding havoc in India in pre-winter period is seen as a sign of El Nino signalling its visitation next; both are harbingers of climatic calamities. One of the worst hazards coastal and island countries are destined to face is rated due to sea level rise. A one-metre rise of the sea level could permanently inundate around a third of Bangladesh areas composed of coast. Salinity incursion along with seawater could devastate agriculture and make safe water scarce. Hunger, malnutrition, diseases might stalk over the country.
Apart from the Paris climate summit, another twin summit meet under the United Nations (UN) aegis was held immediately before at the UN headquarters on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and several of the 17 objectives adopted in its charter are related to combat against climate change on way of ensuring sustainable development of the global mankind. Environment and development experts, taking these adverse possibilities into account, are focusing on advance, forward-looking planning in order to make development sustainable, for now and the future. The cost is hefty but the ultimate dividend is enormous.
The immediate challenge facing the least developed and developing countries like Bangladesh is to manage the funds. One way is a paradigm shift in budgeting, making allocations along climatic line. The other is decided at the Paris summit, though not fully: penalising the rich nations following hedonist line of development to finance the survival of the victims of climate change owing to excessive carbons being spewed by machines into the atmosphere. Bangladesh will need to invest about BDT 3.2 trillion or US$40 billion over the next 15 years to cope with the effects of climate change. It is 8.0 per cent more than the current financial year's national budget and big enough to fund the construction of 11 Padma river bridges.  
The Ministry of Environment and Forests for the climate summit gave such an account placed about the financial involvement in its one of the documents. The country, by this count, will have to invest BDT 213.33 billion annually, until 2030, in 10 fields, including health and agriculture. Bangladesh, a country especially vulnerable to climate-change effects, must start work now to get this money as compensation from developed nations.
Bangladesh was at present losing about 2.0 per cent of its GDP annually because of the climate change. By 2050, this loss would be more than 8 per cent. In order to adjust to the changes, the country will have to invest US$40 billion or BDT 3.2 trillion until 2030. Bangladesh is identified to be the most vulnerable country in the world to tropical cyclones and the sixth most vulnerable country to floods. Over the last 35 years, the government of Bangladesh has invested over US$10 billion to make the country more climate-resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters.
Once in every 4 to 5 years, there is a severe flood that may cover over 60 per cent of the country and cause loss of life and substantial damage of infrastructure, housing, agriculture and livelihoods. In Bangladesh around 191,637 people have died from natural disasters in the last 30 years, of which cyclones alone have accounted for 167,178 deaths. Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) is designed as a coordinated financing mechanism by the government of Bangladesh, development partners and the World Bank to address the impacts of climate change.
With financial support from Denmark, European Union, Sweden and the United Kingdom this fund was established in May 2010; Switzerland, Australia and the United States subsequently joined the fund. This mechanism is enabling the government to channel in over US$188 million grant funds for building people's resilience to the effects of climate change. The objective of the BCCRF is to support the implementation of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009.
The BCCSAP 2009 has identified six main pillars: (i) Food security, social protection and health; (ii) Comprehensive disaster management; (iii) Infrastructure; (iv) Research and knowledge management; (v) Mitigation and low-carbon development; (vi) Capacity building and institutional strengthening. To frame comprehensive implementation policies and mechanisms, including multimodal bodies of experts and stakeholders, under government aegis to act fully along the COP21 line plus homespun strategies to develop and sustain too by tiding the country over the oncoming risks is the need of the present times. Averting the risk of falling in the category of climate-destroying countries is a big challenge and pulling the pledged funds from the climate delinquents' remains another big task. All relevant policies should be geared towards the goal of punishing anyone who harms the climate through environmental pollution, carbon emission into the atmosphere.
The Copenhagen climate meet had agreed to create a US$100 billion fund to help countries affected by climate change. But the initiative remained stalled over disagreement regarding countries' share of contribution and the fund disbursement process. But a decision was reached in Paris with rich nations agreeing to give, after 2020, US$100 million annually for climate-vulnerable nations. They also agreed to subsequently increase the aid money.
To fight natural disasters and make adaptations, low-income countries and island nations will get precedence over others in the grant of financial help. Bangladesh must be better equipped to prepare projects to get money from the "Green Climate Fund". Bangladesh must increase its capability. All countries will try to avail themselves of this fund. So, money will be hard to get unless the projects are good and submitted in time. Only enlisted establishments would be entitled to money from the green fund. Rainfall has already become erratic. Rain that is supposed to spread over three days now comes pouring down in one day. There is unseasonal rain, the frequency of cyclones has increased and so have the number of droughts.
The maximum impact of climate change was being felt in agriculture, the sector that accounts for 18 per cent of Bangladesh's national income and about 87 per cent of employment. The salinity was causing the spread of diseases and affecting infrastructure. Earlier, Aman rice was the main crop. Now, erratic rain and the ease of lifting groundwater for irrigation have made Boro rice the staple crop. Besides, almost the whole of the country's southern region has become saline.
The Paris agreement has fixed global warming limits to less than two degrees above pre-industrial level. It would come into force after 55 countries that account for 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emission ratify it. The USA and China are responsible for 50 per cent of global emissions. But merely their ratification will not solve the problem; all 55 countries that account for 55 per cent of the emission must do so.
Earlier, 40 developed nations had been asked to cut emissions, but in Paris, all countries were asked to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Bangladesh, too, would have to cut greenhouse gas emission by 5 per cent within 2030 and it needs a bold leadership designing right policies and implementing those for climate compatible development. All countries barring Nicaragua have consented to the Paris agreement, and, hopefully, it will become binding.
 
The writer is a retired Professor of Economics, BCS General Education Cadre. Email: [email protected]