Philippines to be 16th largest economy by 2050
Saturday, 14 January 2012
MANILA, Jan 13 (ANN): The Philippines and Peru are among emerging economies that would become much more prominent in the next few decades, helped by demographics and rising education standards, with the Philippines set to leapfrog 27 places to become the 16th largest economy by 2050, according to a prediction of international bank HSBC.
The bank expected China to overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy by 2050, and said strong growth rates in other developing countries would help drive the global economy.
"Plenty of places in the world look set to deliver very strong rates of growth. But they are not in the developed world, which faces both structural and cyclical head winds. They are in the emerging world," the bank said in a report "The World in 2050".
HSBC based its forecasts on fundamentals such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
The bank said the Philippines would become a "star performer" in terms of its economic leap in the global rankings.
HSBC said the Philippines was likely to post an average growth of 7 per cent in the next 40 years.
Breaking down the average growth forecast, the bank said the country would likely grow by 8.4 per cent from 2010 to 2020, by 7.3 per cent from 2020 to 2030, and by 6.6 per cent from 2030 to 2040, and by 5.8 per cent from 2040 to 2050.
It said the advantage of the Philippines was its favourable macroeconomic fundamentals and improving governance.
Economic officials of the government often harp on what they call the country's positive macroeconomic fundamentals that include stable inflation, sustained growth over the years (it grew even when the global economy shrank in 2009), stable banking and financial system, and improving fiscal position.
The bank expected China to overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy by 2050, and said strong growth rates in other developing countries would help drive the global economy.
"Plenty of places in the world look set to deliver very strong rates of growth. But they are not in the developed world, which faces both structural and cyclical head winds. They are in the emerging world," the bank said in a report "The World in 2050".
HSBC based its forecasts on fundamentals such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
The bank said the Philippines would become a "star performer" in terms of its economic leap in the global rankings.
HSBC said the Philippines was likely to post an average growth of 7 per cent in the next 40 years.
Breaking down the average growth forecast, the bank said the country would likely grow by 8.4 per cent from 2010 to 2020, by 7.3 per cent from 2020 to 2030, and by 6.6 per cent from 2030 to 2040, and by 5.8 per cent from 2040 to 2050.
It said the advantage of the Philippines was its favourable macroeconomic fundamentals and improving governance.
Economic officials of the government often harp on what they call the country's positive macroeconomic fundamentals that include stable inflation, sustained growth over the years (it grew even when the global economy shrank in 2009), stable banking and financial system, and improving fiscal position.