Politics sapping vitals of the economy

Whatever is happening in the country in the name of so-called democratic election apparently points to a Doomsday future. A country that passed through hard times but emerged as a role model in the world because of conducive policies adopted by successive governments, now stands on the brink of bankruptcy. During the last couple of months, and especially following the trial of the war criminals, the mayhem got momentum. Buses were burnt throwing petrol bombs, rail links delinked through various subversive activities, police force, judiciary, and other state agencies were attacked, minorities were forced to leave their homes and temples were burnt. In a nutshell, a war against the state was waged by the criminal forces.  Still some of us call it politics and argue to allow space for them. Unfortunately, neither the so-called Nagorik Shomaj nor the TV tall-talkers nor the political parties claiming to be imbued with pro-liberation spirit could be seen on streets to air voices loudly against these crimes.  But, caught by the quagmire, the economy has fallen into shambles with adverse impacts on trade, business, economic growth and poverty.
This writer would shed some light on impacts of a series of hartals (shutdowns) and oborodhs (blockades) on the lives of the common people and the sources of information are newspaper reports and the author's personal field observations.
To start with, it should be mentioned here that in the past, political programmes against an incumbent government - say hartals, strikes or oborodhs - affected only the organised sector while the unorganised or informal sector could somehow escape the rigours of the programmes. And it is this informal sector that absorbs the largest chunk of the labour force coming from the poor segment of society.  Needless to mention here, any fall in the income of this group would tell upon the exchange entitlement and thus lead to poverty and hunger.
Take the case of transport. According to newspaper reports, about 42 drivers were killed and 300 vehicles vandalised in the last seven months or so. The loss in physical and human capital is understandable. About 7.0 million workers, earning Tk.500-1200 each daily, are employed in this sector. They were almost jobless during the last couple of months, and owners are counting interest on loans.
The RMG (ready-made garment) sector, called the lifeline of the export sector, has been suffering unprecedented woes from fire, building collapses and labour unrest and from the on-going political unrest. They are paying employees but not getting the returns and thus falling into interest rate trap.  
The booming construction sector has come almost to a halt following hartals and blockades. Tourism is tattered and with it the linkages shattered - hotels, shops, connected trips etc. The daily sales of the small shops and traders have fallen from Tk.2000 to Tk.50 only. Fruit-sellers' sales have dropped by 60-70 per cent from Tk.5000 to only Tk 600 and retailers lose 10 kg of rotten fruits every day.
Coming to microcredit, the disbursement has fallen owing to less demand caused by the political stalemate. The good harvest of aman that brought smiles in the face of farmers is now casting a gloom following transport blockades. The upcoming boro season is likely to suffer heavily due to the same reasons applied to marketing of inputs.  The vegetables grown with hopes get rotten owing to inability to market them. Livestock owners, out of frustration, spray milk on the road or sell it at throw-away prices.
The decline in imports as well as a fall in service sector products would go to adversely impinge on revenue generation.
By and large, the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate is likely to witness an unexpected decline from 6.0 per cent on average to 5.5 per cent, as various sources seem to suggest. It may even be less if 'politics' of such kind prolongs. Despite a number of good achievements in different socio-economic domains during the last four and a half years, especially primary education, infrastructure (electricity and telecommunication), agriculture, macroeconomic stability, etc., the onslaught is on with all its ferocity.
Look at the scenario of aggregate demand in rural and urban areas and you need not be an economist to judge it. Look around the Chinese and other posh restaurants, hotel bookings, transport of goods and services, hotels and restaurants on the roadside and income of the daily wage earners. If we use proxy indicators of service sector, we can possibly get a hint of that.
For example, growth of credit in the trade sector declined by 13 per cent in the first quarter compared to the same last year. Likewise, bank advances to transport and communication registered a big negative growth from a hefty positive growth in the first quarter of the previous year.
The politically-imposed shocks on the economy at large and households, in particular, for such a long period would possibly take many years to recover. It appears that the long journey from an alleged 'bottomless basket' to role model is being interrupted by politics of a kind that militates against the interest of the nation and its common people. People of this country have long been fighting for democracy where an election is a first-order condition and democratisation of institutions is the sufficient condition. But politicians seem to fight for the first-order condition only relegating the sufficient condition.
What difference does it make to the people whether the election is held under a caretaker government or an all-party government? The fallouts are the same: absence from parliament by the opposition party as long as the party in power lasts, suppressing the voice of opposition by using state apparatus, rampant corruption by ministers, MPs and party cadres, politicisation of professional bodies including civil society, freedom to call hartals but not respecting others' right to reject it, burning people alive, etc.
About 70 per cent of the interviews with general public by the media point to a hatred against politics of today's kind. Just allow this writer to mention comments of some day-labourers: "Why should we be obstructed to join our work? How shall we feed our families tonight? Why would these two parties kill us?"
The politicians may have their own answers to the current unbearable situation: they would provide a better future for the present sufferers once they are in power.  Election in Bangladesh changes power of the politicians but not the powerlessness of its people.
The writer is a Professor                       of Economics at                     Jahangirnagar University.                [email protected]