Polls and beyond: 'Still no guarantee'
Saturday, 13 December 2008
There are no guarantees that Bangladesh will achieve a smooth transition to democracy through polls, with the political situation remaining "complex and fragile", according to an ICG country briefing released Friday, reports bdnews24.com.
An end to emergency rule and elections do not equal democracy, but both are necessary preconditions for the country's stability, said Bangladesh: Elections and Beyond, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group.
"Talk of delaying elections has understandable attractions for leaders afraid of underperforming at the polls", says Michael Shaikh, Crisis Group's Asia Senior Analyst. "But there is no viable alternative to timely elections".
Regardless of who wins the election, the next government and the opposition parties will face the challenges of making parliament work and contending with an army that wants a greater say in politics, said the brief.
"The political situation is complex and fragile," it added.
"Bangladesh's two largest political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are approaching the election from opposite positions."
According to the ICG, "Awami League "viewed as the frontrunner, is eager to contest the polls promptly and with few preconditions".
"The BNP is in disarray. The party threatened to boycott if emergency laws barring many of its members from standing in the election were not rescinded. BNP boycott threats have already forced one poll delay."
A number of factors could still adversely affect the elections and their aftermath, says the Crisis Group.
"Allegations of rigging could spark a party boycott or political violence. Technical flaws on election day with ballots or the voter roll could cause a delay or require re-polling in some areas."
As for the next steps, the ICG says the caretaker government should lift the state of emergency by 17 December, as pledged, and not restrict rights and freedoms necessary for a credible election. The Electoral Commission must immediately start a public information campaign on voting procedures, and publish the results promptly and accurately. They should also avoid interfering with the election by putting security personnel in the polling stations.
"The parties must not take the international community's support for elections as an endorsement of their behaviour but rather see it as belated recognition of the dangers of military rule," the Group adds.
The Dec 29 election will not return the country to civilian rule unless those with a stake in the vote - including the international community - ensure all registered parties contest credible, peaceful polls, was the caution.
"For the parties, the challenge will not end on polling day", says Rhoderick Chalmers, Crisis Group's South Asia Deputy Project Director. "Managing a smooth transition to democratic functioning will require resisting the winner-takes-all approach and cooperating to tackle the serious difficulties the country faces".
The International Crisis Group was founded in 1995 with the aim of providing independent and non-partisan analysis and advice to governments, and intergovernmental bodies such as the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict.
An end to emergency rule and elections do not equal democracy, but both are necessary preconditions for the country's stability, said Bangladesh: Elections and Beyond, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group.
"Talk of delaying elections has understandable attractions for leaders afraid of underperforming at the polls", says Michael Shaikh, Crisis Group's Asia Senior Analyst. "But there is no viable alternative to timely elections".
Regardless of who wins the election, the next government and the opposition parties will face the challenges of making parliament work and contending with an army that wants a greater say in politics, said the brief.
"The political situation is complex and fragile," it added.
"Bangladesh's two largest political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are approaching the election from opposite positions."
According to the ICG, "Awami League "viewed as the frontrunner, is eager to contest the polls promptly and with few preconditions".
"The BNP is in disarray. The party threatened to boycott if emergency laws barring many of its members from standing in the election were not rescinded. BNP boycott threats have already forced one poll delay."
A number of factors could still adversely affect the elections and their aftermath, says the Crisis Group.
"Allegations of rigging could spark a party boycott or political violence. Technical flaws on election day with ballots or the voter roll could cause a delay or require re-polling in some areas."
As for the next steps, the ICG says the caretaker government should lift the state of emergency by 17 December, as pledged, and not restrict rights and freedoms necessary for a credible election. The Electoral Commission must immediately start a public information campaign on voting procedures, and publish the results promptly and accurately. They should also avoid interfering with the election by putting security personnel in the polling stations.
"The parties must not take the international community's support for elections as an endorsement of their behaviour but rather see it as belated recognition of the dangers of military rule," the Group adds.
The Dec 29 election will not return the country to civilian rule unless those with a stake in the vote - including the international community - ensure all registered parties contest credible, peaceful polls, was the caution.
"For the parties, the challenge will not end on polling day", says Rhoderick Chalmers, Crisis Group's South Asia Deputy Project Director. "Managing a smooth transition to democratic functioning will require resisting the winner-takes-all approach and cooperating to tackle the serious difficulties the country faces".
The International Crisis Group was founded in 1995 with the aim of providing independent and non-partisan analysis and advice to governments, and intergovernmental bodies such as the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict.