Polls without parallels: Bangladesh 2013-14

Political philosopher J.J. Rousseau was no lover of indirect or representative democracy. By democracy he understood the direct democracy existent in ancient city states of Greece. Large and populous countries cannot have that form of government in the modern days. Representative democracies have been the dominant political order in modern times. Rousseau, however, did not like this species of government. He thought that lawmakers elected by the people corrupted the system. As intermediaries they fail to reflect popular will and do as they like. In consequence, instead of being people's servers, after elections they tend to become their masters. This is why Rousseau said that in indirect democracies people are free only once in four or five years, the day they cast their votes.
It appears that in the general elections scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on January 05, 2014, nearly half of the electorate would not enjoy the dubious distinction of being free even on the day of polls. The election process that is taking place since November 25 with the declaration of election schedule by the Election Commission is riddled by pitfalls. A significant part of the nation represented by the opposition BNP-led 18-Party Alliance stayed away from the polls. As is well known by now, it is the difference over the form and nature of the polls-time government that keeps the main opposition away. The Awami League, the ruling party with its Mohajot (grand alliance) partners sticks to the position that the government party should form the interim government to oversee the elections. They say this is what the Constitution as modified by the 15th amendment stipulates. The BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and its allies staunchly maintain that it would have no part in a election under a party government, which it considers to be out and out partisan. Since the announcement of the election schedule they have strongly registered their protest by holding virtually incessant blockade of highways, railroads and water ways. The blockade led not only to violence but also to a virtual cease of economic, social and educational life. On the other hand, a major partner of the 18-Party Alliances, the Jamaat-e-Islami, is agitating with considerable violence against the punishment of their leaders for committing crimes against humanity during the 1971 war of liberation. All these made the country enter a period of great crises. The continuing political strife set the stage for national elections without participation of the major opposition party. As a result, more than hundred and fifty candidates to parliament have been elected uncontested. Most of them are Awami Leaguers with a dozen or more of left parties of the 14-Party Alliance. The position of the Jatiyo Party (JP) is highly confusing following its leader H.M. Ershad's sudden declaration that JP would not participate in the polls, if  the BNP did not join. There are rumors that a faction of Jatiyo Party, led by Ershad's wife Rawshan, may contest in the elections. In that case it is said that some 61 seats would be earmarked for it, while the Awami League have claimed to 227 seats. Whatever that may be, assuming that the government would be able to maintain some semblance of peace during the forthcoming elections it would still not be acceptable in and outside the country.
In terms of constitutional and legal provisions and procedures the polls cannot be called into question. Nevertheless, grave doubts dominate people's minds as to the final outcome of it all.
Half-baked polls, experts, analysts and observers maintain, will do the nation no good. Although, legal on the face of it the question will remain whether it is moral. Then there is the consideration of practical politics. As a result of non-inclusive elections, even if these are completed somehow, will have the dreadful effect of making the national divide more difficult to bridge. Although a kind of dialogue is going on between the Awami League and the BNP from December 06 under UN brokerage there is no let up on confrontational politics. The brake in opposition's blockade resumed after the Victory Day on December 16. As there is little likelihood of any positive result of the secretive dialogue, the opposition movement may extend even beyond the polls in the New Year. The nation and society is already dangerously polarised. Taking advantage of this the right extreme may further consolidate its position and mastermind further mindless violence.
The nation has already paid a high price in terms of life and property nearly month-long blockade and political strife's have taken a toll of 112 dead and thousands injured. Particularly, the brutal killings of bus passengers by petrol bombs causing fire have deeply shocked, pained and sadden the citizens.
The fallout is not only political and emotional, it is also economic. As a result of political turmoil and violence, business has been disastrously disrupted. Industry is in the doldrums. Investments, both foreign and domestic, have reached the lowest ebb. By November a Chinese state-owned corporation put a 10-billion-dollar proposal of investment in Bangladesh on hold. The UAE government also deferred its assistance for preliminary work of a deep sea port near Sonadia, Cox's Bazaar.
Garment exports in November lessened by one billion dollars compared to the previous month. Manpower export is also reported to be reducing day by day. Wrong politics and incapable diplomacy are increasing the tempo of decline. Remittances from abroad, though still considerable, are under strain. Since enterprise and business have become doubly difficult in politically violent Bangladesh, investment has dwindled. Banks bend under the weight of idle funds to the extent of Taka 280 billion (28 thousand crores) as there are few takers of industrial or commercial loans. Common people, including farmers, fishermen, small traders and transport operators, are all suffering from the effects of nearly ceaseless political violence during the nation-wide blockades and hartals. The damage to the economy caused by the continuing crisis is estimated to be in the region of TK  350 billion (35 thousand crores).
The non-inclusive national elections, scheduled to be completed on January 05, do not seem to hold out hopes for the resolution of the current political conflict. If anything, it is likely to intensify the conflict further and bring about a graver crisis. It is not polls by hook or crooks, but meaningful give and take and peaceful reconciliation between combating major forces that can solve the nation's problems, political, economic and social. That is the abiding lesson taught by the chequered history of surviving democracies.       
Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB) and Editor quarterly "Asian Affairs", was a former teacher of political science in Dhaka University and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) and former non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh.
[email protected]