Poor economy strikes at heart of Obama support

WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (AFP): The state of the US economy matters, but President Barack Obama's hopes of reelection may hinge on the economic fate of a small group of voters in key states who handed him the keys to the White House. For much of Obama's three years in office, healing the economy has been a Sisyphean race against the clock. Stimulative measure after stimulative measure has fallen flat, been squished by Congress or offset by earthquakes in Japan, debt crises in Europe and uprisings in the Middle East. Unemployment today is stuck at 9.1 per cent, nearly double the rate seen during most of the last two decades, and growth is not strong enough bring back nine million lost jobs. The grim vista is expected to pervade 2012. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve predicted that unemployment next year would be around 8.5 to 8.7 per cent and growth at around 2.5 to 2.9 per cent. If those forecasts prove correct, voters buffeted by high unemployment and depressed home prices will care not a jot for arguments about ill will in Washington or icy winds from abroad. Pundits expect the election to be a battle of Obama versus the economy-a referendum rather than a choice between rival candidates. "The economy is the major looming lurking force that is going to be the number one driver of this election," said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, a national polling organization. But exactly where and how the economy stalls may have a greater bearing on the election than any national numbers. In the key battle ground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina and Ohio unemployment is at or above the national average. Together they make up 109 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win and it is difficult to imagine a path to the White House for either party that does not pass through Florida or Ohio. At a local level the picture for Obama is equally bleak. Key urban districts, from Las Vegas to Miami to Milwaukee, that handed Obama enough votes to win state-wide have been at the center of the home repossession crisis.