Population ageing: An emerging challenge
Tuesday, 3 January 2012
Population ageing is a process through which the share of elderly population over 60 years of age becomes larger. For the world as a whole, the number of elderly population will to increase from 800 million now to over two billion in 2050, according to projection of the UN Population Division.
The global life expectancy has increased from 48 to 68 years between 1950 and 2010 and the same would rise to 76 years by 2050. Because of the increasing longevity, the percentage of population over 80 years of age will also increase considerably. The total fertility rate in the world fell from 5.0 children per women in 1950 to 2.5 in 2010 and the rate will continue to drop. As families have fewer children, the percentage of older people will naturally increase. Presently, the share of older people is 11 per cent of the world population, which will be 22 per cent in 2050, crossing the tolerable limit of 20 per cent of total population.
The pattern of population changes are divided into five stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) prepared by CP Blacker in 1947. Stage 1 is called 'high stationary level', when population slightly increases for very high birth and death rates fluctuating at around 40 per thousand. Subsequently, the birth rate remains very high but the death rate comes down rapidly to below 20 in Stage 2. This is called the 'early expanding stage' because of the high rate of child survival. In Stage 3, the birth rate falls rapidly along with a slow decline of the death rate, which results in late expanding but at a decreased rate. Stage 4 is called 'low stationary stage', because of very low birth and death rates. The last stage starts with equal birth and death rates but continues with higher death rate. Population declines and ageing eventually appears as a burden at this stage.
As per the International Database of the US Census Bureau, the world is now in Stage 3 of the DTM. However, the picture is not the same for more-developed and less-developed regions. The more-developed regions are at the late age of Stage 4 with their low birth and death rates of 11.9 and 10.3 respectively, which will enter into Stage 5 within a decade. It is to be noted that many European and East Asian countries have already reached Stage 5. On the other hand, the less-developed regions are at Stage 3, with the birth and death rates of 21.3 and 7.6, respectively, which will enter into Stage 4 by 2025 with birth and death rates of 17.8 and 7.6, respectively. However, some least developed countries may not reach the Stage 4 even in 2050 as they have a high birth rate of 35 and just entered the Stage 3. In this context, Bangladesh is at Stage 3, with a birth rate of 23 and it would enter the Stage 4 by 2030.
Ageing appears as a burden at 70 to 80 years, after the baby-boom period. It has already appeared in several industrial nations and will be more severe in 2030, when one-third of population in those countries will become aged. However, a substantial number of children born after 1960 in the less-developed regions and after 1970 in Bangladesh, will burden there countries with larger ageing population after 2050.
A younger population seems like an opportunity for a manpower-exporting developing nation, but it will not remain an advantage for long. Indeed, ageing population ultimately becomes a burden in every country. It is only a matter of time. In Bangladesh, about 7.0 per cent of population was classified as elderly in 1950, the share of which even declined during the next 50 years. However, this share is projected to be 17 per cent in 2050.
Although "being old" is a master status, but it is somehow related to disability and of being economically unproductive. The ill-health, poor housing and social isolation create a dependency burden. Old people, who contributed much for both the family and economy, suffer physically, emotionally and financially due to neglect. The Macau Plan of Action in 1998 advocated the government (i) to promote co-residence through housing policies, (ii) to provide financial incentives; (iii) to introduce home nursing services, (iv) to facilitate with counseling, professional guidance and emotional support, and (v) to strengthen inter-generational relationships to develop the social and health status of elderly people. However, what have the governments of developed countries done and how are the governments of developing countries prepared for handling the ageing issue, are still critical questions.
The American society started giving more emphasis on health-care and financial security for its elderly population by the declaration of "Honor the past, imagine the future". The International Day for Older Persons is observed on October first every year to create social awareness. Meanwhile, almost all developed countries have programmes for older people including national pension scheme, national health insurance, old-age homes and recreation centres. However, Japan, a global economic power, is even facing problems with paying for such services.
On the other hand, the developing countries do not have economic capacity to create such facilities, where about 80 per cent of the elderly population will be living by 2050. The social and economic trends show that older people of these countries enjoy respectable and honourable life under family care. Regrettably, the breakdown of traditional joint family structure and economic dynamism tends to increase the abuse of the elderly people in developing countries.
The ageing population burden is also approaching Bangladesh like other developing countries. In some rural areas, migration of young adults to cities has already raised questions about the care of the elderly people in rural areas. Because of urbanisation and a deficient social security system, the elderly people are being increasingly sent to old or nursing homes, alienating them from their kin. This is mainly because of the changing family patterns towards nuclear families, primarily due to migration, economic hardship, declining social values, self-interest, maladjustment, etc.
Under this situation, the health and emotional problems of the poor elderly people become so bad that majority of them surrender to death without treatment. Even if someone has the financial capability, they often face discriminatory behaviour even from doctors. The usual practice at the doctor's offices of 'One appointment, one medical problem' cannot support the multiple health problems of older people. Now, the question remains on the level of government intervention in support of the elderly population.
Bangladesh is yet to develop mechanisms to respond to the challenge of an ageing population. There are a few public interventions like pension schemes, old-age allowances, national elderly policy, etc. Even the present old-age allowance, equivalent to 10 kg rice per month, covers only a part of distressed elderly population. Although the national policy on elderly population was finalised in 2006, it is yet to be implemented.
In a developing country like Bangladesh, public intervention alone would not be effective to address such a big social issue. However, the government could ensure support for the families caring for their elderly members. Moreover, regulations may promote obligatory care to elderly members in families. In addition, a public policy can be formulated to provide special incentives to people to save for their retirement age. There is not much time left for the government to introduce some social extension and incentives programmes to help the elderly people, may be under public-private partnership.
(Dr Aminul Islam Akanda is Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Comilla University. He can be reached at email: akanda_ai@hotmail.com)
The global life expectancy has increased from 48 to 68 years between 1950 and 2010 and the same would rise to 76 years by 2050. Because of the increasing longevity, the percentage of population over 80 years of age will also increase considerably. The total fertility rate in the world fell from 5.0 children per women in 1950 to 2.5 in 2010 and the rate will continue to drop. As families have fewer children, the percentage of older people will naturally increase. Presently, the share of older people is 11 per cent of the world population, which will be 22 per cent in 2050, crossing the tolerable limit of 20 per cent of total population.
The pattern of population changes are divided into five stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) prepared by CP Blacker in 1947. Stage 1 is called 'high stationary level', when population slightly increases for very high birth and death rates fluctuating at around 40 per thousand. Subsequently, the birth rate remains very high but the death rate comes down rapidly to below 20 in Stage 2. This is called the 'early expanding stage' because of the high rate of child survival. In Stage 3, the birth rate falls rapidly along with a slow decline of the death rate, which results in late expanding but at a decreased rate. Stage 4 is called 'low stationary stage', because of very low birth and death rates. The last stage starts with equal birth and death rates but continues with higher death rate. Population declines and ageing eventually appears as a burden at this stage.
As per the International Database of the US Census Bureau, the world is now in Stage 3 of the DTM. However, the picture is not the same for more-developed and less-developed regions. The more-developed regions are at the late age of Stage 4 with their low birth and death rates of 11.9 and 10.3 respectively, which will enter into Stage 5 within a decade. It is to be noted that many European and East Asian countries have already reached Stage 5. On the other hand, the less-developed regions are at Stage 3, with the birth and death rates of 21.3 and 7.6, respectively, which will enter into Stage 4 by 2025 with birth and death rates of 17.8 and 7.6, respectively. However, some least developed countries may not reach the Stage 4 even in 2050 as they have a high birth rate of 35 and just entered the Stage 3. In this context, Bangladesh is at Stage 3, with a birth rate of 23 and it would enter the Stage 4 by 2030.
Ageing appears as a burden at 70 to 80 years, after the baby-boom period. It has already appeared in several industrial nations and will be more severe in 2030, when one-third of population in those countries will become aged. However, a substantial number of children born after 1960 in the less-developed regions and after 1970 in Bangladesh, will burden there countries with larger ageing population after 2050.
A younger population seems like an opportunity for a manpower-exporting developing nation, but it will not remain an advantage for long. Indeed, ageing population ultimately becomes a burden in every country. It is only a matter of time. In Bangladesh, about 7.0 per cent of population was classified as elderly in 1950, the share of which even declined during the next 50 years. However, this share is projected to be 17 per cent in 2050.
Although "being old" is a master status, but it is somehow related to disability and of being economically unproductive. The ill-health, poor housing and social isolation create a dependency burden. Old people, who contributed much for both the family and economy, suffer physically, emotionally and financially due to neglect. The Macau Plan of Action in 1998 advocated the government (i) to promote co-residence through housing policies, (ii) to provide financial incentives; (iii) to introduce home nursing services, (iv) to facilitate with counseling, professional guidance and emotional support, and (v) to strengthen inter-generational relationships to develop the social and health status of elderly people. However, what have the governments of developed countries done and how are the governments of developing countries prepared for handling the ageing issue, are still critical questions.
The American society started giving more emphasis on health-care and financial security for its elderly population by the declaration of "Honor the past, imagine the future". The International Day for Older Persons is observed on October first every year to create social awareness. Meanwhile, almost all developed countries have programmes for older people including national pension scheme, national health insurance, old-age homes and recreation centres. However, Japan, a global economic power, is even facing problems with paying for such services.
On the other hand, the developing countries do not have economic capacity to create such facilities, where about 80 per cent of the elderly population will be living by 2050. The social and economic trends show that older people of these countries enjoy respectable and honourable life under family care. Regrettably, the breakdown of traditional joint family structure and economic dynamism tends to increase the abuse of the elderly people in developing countries.
The ageing population burden is also approaching Bangladesh like other developing countries. In some rural areas, migration of young adults to cities has already raised questions about the care of the elderly people in rural areas. Because of urbanisation and a deficient social security system, the elderly people are being increasingly sent to old or nursing homes, alienating them from their kin. This is mainly because of the changing family patterns towards nuclear families, primarily due to migration, economic hardship, declining social values, self-interest, maladjustment, etc.
Under this situation, the health and emotional problems of the poor elderly people become so bad that majority of them surrender to death without treatment. Even if someone has the financial capability, they often face discriminatory behaviour even from doctors. The usual practice at the doctor's offices of 'One appointment, one medical problem' cannot support the multiple health problems of older people. Now, the question remains on the level of government intervention in support of the elderly population.
Bangladesh is yet to develop mechanisms to respond to the challenge of an ageing population. There are a few public interventions like pension schemes, old-age allowances, national elderly policy, etc. Even the present old-age allowance, equivalent to 10 kg rice per month, covers only a part of distressed elderly population. Although the national policy on elderly population was finalised in 2006, it is yet to be implemented.
In a developing country like Bangladesh, public intervention alone would not be effective to address such a big social issue. However, the government could ensure support for the families caring for their elderly members. Moreover, regulations may promote obligatory care to elderly members in families. In addition, a public policy can be formulated to provide special incentives to people to save for their retirement age. There is not much time left for the government to introduce some social extension and incentives programmes to help the elderly people, may be under public-private partnership.
(Dr Aminul Islam Akanda is Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Comilla University. He can be reached at email: akanda_ai@hotmail.com)